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Reports of Latinos flocking to GOP were greatly exaggerated. Just look at New Mexico [1]
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Date: 2022-11-15
“Early voting turnout data suggests Latino voters were crucial in flipping the Republican district and electing Democratic Latino officials in the nation’s most heavily Hispanic state,” NBC News reported. Matt Barreto, co-founder of the firm BSP Research, told NBC News that "the Latino voting bloc was not just influential, but decisive" in Vasquez’s race, who won over the incumbent by 1,300 votes.
Latino voters, meanwhile, gave him a nearly 40,000 vote net advantage, Barreto said. In Fernandez’s race, she had an advantage of nearly 30,000 votes.
“Barreto emphasized that final voter turnout won't be known until at least another week,” the report continued. “But six days after the election, Latino voter turnout for both New Mexico's 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts appear to be matching the record-breaking levels achieved in 2018.” He told NBC News that’s “a big, big deal to sustain that for two midterm elections in a row.”
We also know Latino voters were decisive in next door Arizona, where Democrats Katie Hobbs and Mark Kelly defeated their MAGA Republican opponents.
“In the large sample Midterm Voter Election Poll of Arizona Latinos who voted in 2022, Latino voters in the state provided the following critical margins to winning Democratic candidates,” immigrant rights advocacy group America’s Voice noted Tuesday, with Hobbs defeating Kari Lake 62-36% and Kelly defeating anti-immigrant creep Blake Masters 67-32%.
x Outside of Florida, the Latino vote was 2-to-1 Democrat, or better in places like PA. If you are looking for data on Latino voters, the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll is the most accurate exit poll with over 5,200 Latino interviews nationwide plus in-depth in 11 states. pic.twitter.com/zQP1RsqF2w — Matt A. Barreto 🇵🇪 ⚽️ (@realMABarreto) November 14, 2022
Yes, there’s more work that needs to be done in terms of Democratic outreach to Latinos, but reports that they’re leaving the party en mass for the GOP are greatly exaggerated. Nearly two-thirds nationwide voted for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Latinos went for Democratic candidates by margins even larger than those in Arizona. A Democrat ousted Republican Mayra Flores in Texas. Of course, Florida is an outlier.
Latino voters also helped keep the U.S. Senate in Democratic hands following the victory of Catherine Cortez Masto. The senior senator and her campaign had in the closing days of the election reiterated that Latinos, particularly Latina voters, would be her pathway to another term. Univision polling ahead of Election Day had shown her with a massive lead among Latinos, leading Big Lie proponent Adam Laxalt by more than 30 points.
“Nevada voters delivered the Senate majority to Democrats and helped safeguard our democracy by re-electing Senator Cortez Masto,” tweeted Indivisible Managing Director Mari Urbina, a veteran Reid adviser (and he certainly knew something about winning Latino voters). “Latino voters showed up for the first Latina U.S. Senator and proved once again that there is no path to victory in Nevada without Latino support.”
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