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I Caution Against Jumping to Conclusions About the Poland- Hit-by-Missile Incident. Stay Cool. [1]
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Date: 2022-11-15
I am not going to pretend the military is my lane, especially as the founder of this site is a veteran with gobs of expertise. However if it will help to tamp down rumors of WWIII, I would like to interject a few thoughts on the situation-
1. We are not sure if missiles that struck Poland were off-target, or possibly, remnants from missiles shot down by Ukranian air defense. H/T to Comfortably Numb.
ComfortablyNumb blue aardvark Nov 15, 2022 at 02:00:28 PM to suggest these are remnants of Russian missiles shot down by Ukrainian air defense over Lviv. There is intel to suggest these are remnants of Russian missiles shot down by Ukrainian air defense over Lviv. Translation: “My sources in the services say that what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
x Moje źródła w służbach twierdzą, że to co uderzyło w Przewodowo to najprawdopodobniej szczątki rakiety zestrzelonej przez Siły Zbrojne Ukrainy. — Mariusz Gierszewski (@MariuszGierszew) November 15, 2022
2. There are rumors going around that Poland can unilaterally retaliate or otherwise escalate under Article 5. This is false.
x No WWIII yet-“They must reach consensus on this, rather than taking a formal vote. Consensus can mean that no government objects to invoking Article 5.”
The U.S. is highly unlikely to invoke Article 5 over stray missiles. — The Claw News (@PapaLovesKitty) November 15, 2022
The complete article can be found here-
This means all 30 NATO member nations must be in complete agreement. Additionally, there are an array of options available to the allies should they come to an agreement that some sort of a response is necessary. This could include anything from creating a buffer zone inside of Ukraine, to enhanced logistical support, to further pressure for sanctions.
One could also expect China, along with India, to start having more serious conversations with Putin about an off-ramp.
We know that something hit Poland, that it was likely a Russian missile, and that two people died. We do not know if it was intentional (likely not) or the result of a defense response implemented by Ukrainians.
However if a missile were to even inadvertently hit a major population center, regardless of intent, then we might well be having a different conversation. This is yet another reason as to why it is imperative that Russia accept the score on the board and go home.
That, and the whole war crimes against an entire nation of innocent people thing. Putin has written his name alongside the rogues of history in other people’s blood. It will never wash off.
However in this situation, patience, especially in Polish military circles, is not infinite.
We need answers, not conspiracies. Calm, cool-headed focus is what is called for.
Luckily, Joe Cool is President.
-ROC
I would love for you to join my newsletter, The Claw News, and read the efforts of a writer with journalistic integrity. It helps provide for my family in the midst of my health struggles, and I give it my all.
I need to add to my Claw Family!
Love,
-ROC
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