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Freedom Caucus' Role Will Be Symbolic [1]

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Date: 2022-11-15

If Republicans take the House, there’s a lot of suggestion going around that the Freedom Caucus, and the crazies in general, will be running the show. This means we’re in for government shutdowns, the debt ceiling being held hostage, weekly impeachments of Biden, etc. I’m not saying this won’t happen, but it won’t be because the Freedom Caucus forced the Speaker’s hand.

Now I should mention that by “the crazies” I mean the furthest right members of the Republican House; I’m aware that Republicans in general are pretty nuts.

The most powerful member in any closely divided house is going to be the member that is closest to the middle. This is because of the levers of power that members and leadership have.

Leadership has three main levers- public opinion (if you don’t vote for this, your constituents will vote you out); threatening to support a primary opponent; and committee assignments. The first is the biggest- politicians don’t want embarrassing votes on their record. The second can have some weight but it’s the nuclear option and Donald Trump seems to be the only pol capable of wielding this to any effect. Committee assignments are a weak ass threat. Marjorie Taylor Greene was stripped of all her assignments but seems to not give a crap.

Members, on the other hand, have their own levers they can wield. The two big ones are- not voting for something leadership wants and leaving the party. This is where it gets interesting. Every member of the House can threaten to not vote for a bill and leadership can try to threaten them to do it. BUT not every member can plausibly threaten to leave the party. In fact, the further from the middle the harder it gets. Because a member in a 50/50 district can say “maybe I flip now and win enough good will to get reelected”. It’s not a great bet, but it can work. a member in a 70/30 district, however… they’re fucked. Leaving the party means leaving Congress. That’s why Tulsi Gabbard’s career in congress is over. When one person has the power to deny leadership their hold on power, that means they’re in charge.

So we need to focus less on the dumb threats that MTG and the usual suspects are making and more on what the most “moderate” members want. The Freedom Caucus will make lots of noise, and will probably be allowed to run some really stupid hearings, but they’re not going to be the real power.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/15/2122457/-Freedom-Caucus-Role-Will-Be-Symbolic

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