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Prediction: Democrats will sweep four of Arizona's statewide races, better tie down Kari Lake [1]

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Date: 2022-11-14

I sometimes ❤️ Arizona

The sixth largest state in the nation, Arizona only has 15 counties. Compare that to Pennsylvania, which is less than half the size of Arizona but has 67 counties, or Kentucky, which is even smaller than Pennsylvania but has 120 counties. Arizona has big counties, as do other western states.

Again (it seems like every election cycle lately) we’re awaiting news from this one Arizona county—Maricopa, a huge 9,224-square-mile chunk of desert that’s almost twice as large as Connecticut, nearly as big as Massachusetts. Still, it’s only Arizona’s fifth largest county by area; Apache, Mohave, Coconino, and Navajo are bigger in size but most people are in Maricopa, whose population exploded after WWII to nearly 5 million today, representing more than 65 percent of the entire state’s population. Even so, the county’s very size produces an urban-rural divide of consequence for both, but that doesn’t entirely explain the region’s whacky political geography.

Because while cities like Phoenix and college towns like Tempe lean blue, large blobs of conservatism sprout up everywhere—Mormon cities, massive monied burbs, old ranching and farming towns, and humungous retirement enclaves. So while Phoenix often has a Democratic Mayor and Council, Maricopa County has occasionally elected terrible people like Sheriff Joe Arpaio. (He recently lost his race for Mayor of Fountain Hills. HA! HA! HA! HA! But only by a couple hundred votes. AH! AH! AH! AH!)

But here’s the deal: Maricopa County voters finally told the 6-term sheriff to piss off in 2016, the county went blue in 2018 for Sen. Sinema (not that she is), and it remained blue in 2020 to help deliver Arizona for Biden. Hey Republicans! No more messin’ with Maricopa County because we’ve just done it again! This week Republicans were so confident the county would come through for them with its late votes and erase the leads Democrats had built … no, that didn't happen. No red wave. Not in Maricopa and certainly not in the state’s other large blue counties—Pima and Coconino, not to mention the fantastic work Democrats did on the reservations.

All four of Arizona’s major statewide offices featured Republican election deniers who were endorsed by trump, people bent on tearing down democracy: Kari Lake for Governor, Blake Masters for U.S. Senate; Abraham Humadeh for Attorney General, and Mark Finchem for Secretary of State. They all celebrated trump’s endorsement in their ads and stump speeches, and the more they repeated his stolen election nonsense the more he endorsed. Trump even pressured Blake Masters to only talk about stolen elections, no matter the occasion:

“Look at Kari. Kari’s winning with very little money. And if they say, ‘How is your family?’ she says the election was rigged and stolen. You’ll lose if you go soft. You’re going to lose that base.”

After another batch of Maricopa County and Pima County votes dropped last night, and Republicans did not cut into the Democrats’ leads to the extent they needed, it’s pretty damn clear that ALL FOUR REPUBLICANS WILL LOSE, even though Kari Lake’s supporters rallied with God to find her more votes. The races haven’t all been called, there are still many votes to count, but:

The Hobbs campaign Sunday night issued a statement that, while it stopped just short of declaring victory, made clear that the Democratic nominee expects to do so in the near future.

If Democrats pull this out, we dodged a major f*cking bullet. I don’t like the violent language either, but a Lake-Finchem team would’ve been violent, would’ve turned Arizona into Gilead of the Southwest.

We Have a Winner!

Current Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, who’s faced death threats since the 2020 race, will hold on to beat former TV news anchor Kari Lake in the Governor’s race; incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Kelly already dispatched the Peter Thiel puppet Blake Masters; former sensible Republican turned Democrat Kris Mayes should eek out a victory over Humadeh for Attorney General (the race I’m still edgy about); and former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, who faced down Republicans during the ridiculous “audit” charade, trounced Oath Keeper Mark Finchem in the Secretary of State’s race. In this video Adrian Fontes explains how close Arizona came to fascism, had Mark Finchem been in charge of running the state’s elections:

x YouTube Video

And get this: Our Congressman, Arizona’s firebrand Ruben Gallego, who easily won his seat, said this will be the worst election outcome for Democrats for some time, especially as the youth, Hispanic, and student populations grow (ASU went 96-4 Dem!). Now it’s time to take on the Legislature, which remains looney tunes. Happily, Kari Lake will not be that body’s Governor!

(Republicans did win one statewide race: Treasurer. Unlike the other four losers, Kimberly Yee, who beat Democrat Martin Quezada, did not suck up to trump and did not repeat his stolen election bullshit. Whether Republicans will make the connection is anyone’s guess.)

As one might expect, Arizona Republicans were gracious in defeat—making fun of Sen. Kelly’s ears, spewing noxious barbs about Nancy Pelosi’s husband, blaming the fake media and the “cheaters and crooks” for their terrible performance. Of course trump is claiming fraud, and Kari Lake will be all over Fox News complaining about a rigged vote (the state’s election process was designed by Republicans but that’s another diary). Blake Masters immediately blamed Mitch McConnell for his defeat, neglecting to mention he was an awful candidate who was only in the race because of Peter Thiel’s millions (which purchased one of the creepiest campaign ads of all time).

Don’t expect a concession speech anytime soon from the Four Horseboobs of the Apocalypse.

In a few hours it should be settled and I can remove “Prediction” from the diary’s title, so get ready to party with some good old Tempe tunes!

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/2134717/-Prediction-Democrats-will-sweep-all-four-of-Arizona-s-statewide-races-better-tie-down-Kari-Lake

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