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I Sh** you not. Lauren Boebert's seat is most likely to decide control of the House. [1]

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Date: 2022-11-14

As of 10:02 EST Mon, Nov 14th, AP has it at 214 Rs and 204 Ds. My best guess is 218-217 Republicans with Boebert's seat on the bubble.

The map is changing tonight, but as of right now, according to AP’s predictions, Republicans lead in the House of Representatives by 214 to 204.

That counts as undecided CA-34, where two Democrats are battling it out. So that makes it 214-205.

Then there’s Alaska where new Congresswoman Peltola has 47.3% of the vote with 80% counted. She needs to gain 2.7 percentage points out of that last 20%, or to get the same amount of second-choice votes from voters who chose Sarah Palin or Nick Begich as their first choice in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting. If she gets either, she will repeat her surprise win in this summer’s special election.

Counting Rep. Peltola, I see Democrats having 5 “decent” leads (CA-6, CA-21, CA-49, AK-1, and ME-02), that is enough of a lead to likely hold up if the remaining votes are about even. Republicans have 3 “decent” leads (CA-27, CA-45, and NY-22). That projection takes us to 217-209. Republicans need just one more win if their decent leads hold up.

But where will they get it?

Republicans lead in 4 more races: CA-3, CA-22, CA-41, and CO-3 — Boebert’s seat.

California is following the pattern of Democrats gaining as more mail-in ballots are counted. For instance, Katie Porter in CA-47 was down by a few points late last week. Now she is up by 1.2 points with 20% remaining. I show the momentum favoring Democrats in all 3 California seats, plus CO-8 where they have a scant lead.

I hate to say it, but Boebert’s lead of 0.4 % has a good chance of holding up since its status is now “99% reporting”. This regrettable outcome would make it exactly 218 Republicans versus 217 Democrats.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/2136203/-I-Sh-you-not-Lauren-Boebbert-s-seat-is-most-likely-to-decide-control-of-the-House

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