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Red Wave? More Like Some Light Mid-Cycle Spotting: Saturday's Good News [1]
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Date: 2022-11-12
Today’s title comes from this amazing tweet by MissesDread, which was forward to me by my amazing friend Heather:
Ain’t that the truth.
And we played a big role in it! In three different campaigns, we supported 60 different candidates for the House of Representatives. We raised over $200,000 total, sending each candidate an average of over $3000.
Of those 60 races, 13 are still unknown, we lost 15, and we won 32.
In other words, so far, we have won over twice as many of those races as we lost! Remember these are races that were toss ups or leaned one way or the other. I picked all the lean red and lean blues out there and all the toss ups. These all could have gone either way. Your donations made a difference!
Here is a Thank You from one of the candidates we supported, Eric Sorensen, who WON his seat in Illinois with our help!
I was stuck by two things as I compiled the list of who had won (and who had lost) from the people we supported. First, I was blown away with gratitude for all of you and joy at being in community with you. We did this!
But the second was sadness at each race we lost. Logically, I know that you can’t win them all. Logically, I know that winning almost twice as many as we lost is amazing. Yet still, each loss hurts.
And I am sure that some of you are feeling this more than others. Some of you worked so hard for Tim Ryan or so hard for Beto or so hard in Florida. Those losses sting. All the losses sting.
I’ve been there. We have all been there. And it hurts. I wish we could win them all.
And although we all wish we had won even more than we did win, we need to remember to really CELEBRATE what we accomplished this week. We were predicted to lose all over the map. The pundits were calling for Red Wave. And no wonder — the President’s party always loses many seats in the midterms AND we have tough economic times AND a right wing amplification machine AND Gerrymandering.
But we didn’t. It wasn’t a red wave. We did better than any Democratic president has done in their first midterms since JFK. We haven’t done this well in 60 years.
Don’t believe me? Check it out.
First I will go over the general win. Second, specific wins. Finally, big losses for awful people.
The General Win
There was no red wave.
Against most expectations — and in the face of daunting fundamentals — the Democratic Party held its own against a hungry and aggressive Republican Party. It flipped seats and chambers in Michigan; it stood its ground in Virginia and Wisconsin; and it fought Republicans to a standstill in Arizona and a runoff in Georgia. It’s not that Election Day was perfect for Democrats, but even with defeats in Florida, Texas and crucial House races in New York, Democrats could still say that theirs was the strongest midterm performance for a president’s party since Republicans gained seats in the 2002 elections under George W. Bush and the best one for Democrats since the party gained Senate seats under John F. Kennedy in 1962.
And remember, W had that midterm in the aftermath of 9/11 when his polls were super high.
The midterms were good news for Democrats … and democrats
America Dodged an Arrow
You can hold off moving to Canada. You can forgo the call to the New Zealand Embassy on how to become a citizen there. Tuesday’s election really was the most important test since the Civil War of whether the engine of our constitutional system — our ability to peacefully and legitimately transfer power — remains intact. And it looks to have come through — a little dinged up, but OK. I am still not even close to ready to sound the all-clear, to declare that running on a platform of election denialism will never tempt another American politician. But given the unprecedented degree to which election denialism was elevated in this midterm and the way several big-name Trump-imitating knuckleheads who made denialism central to their campaigns got their clocks cleaned —- we may have just dodged one of the biggest arrows ever aimed at the heart of our democracy.
The most underestimated president in recent history
President Joe Biden has been consistently underestimated. Democrats performed exceptionally well by historical standards on Tuesday and Biden walks away having fared better than any other President in his first midterm since George W. Bush in 2002. “It was a good day for democracy,” the president declared on Wednesday. Democrats did extremely well in states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. Many of the election deniers running for secretary of state or governor lost. Even in states where Democrats were walloped, such as in New York, there were bright spots, including Gov. Kathy Hochul’s victory over the Trump-endorsed Republican Lee Zeldin. The outcome was a surprise to both parties. Since World War II, the party of the president has typically performed poorly in the first midterm of an administration, with an average loss of 26 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. Under former President Donald Trump, Republicans lost 40 seats in the House in 2018. Democrats lost 63 in the House in 2010 under Barack Obama, and 52 in 1994 under Bill Clinton. When presidential approval ratings fall to where President Biden’s numbers have been – between the high-30s and mid-40s this year – that normally spells massive defeat. See, for examples, Donald Trump (38%) in 2018, Obama (46%) in 2010, Bill Clinton (41%) in 1994. Besides Biden’s low approval rates, high inflation, turbulent financial markets, and other issues that have favored Republicans – such as concerns about crime – loomed large in most polls. Yet the red wave so many anticipated didn’t happen. Votes are still being counted in key states and districts, but even if Republicans end up with control of one or both chambers, their majority will be extremely narrow. It’s safe to say Democrats will not face the “shellacking” they experienced in 2010. Nonetheless, the midterms make clear that Biden is a much stronger president than he is often given credit for. He has been underestimated and criticized despite having a formidable first two years. The midterms should make Republicans nervous as they think about 2024. After two years of speculation about whether Biden should run for a second term, the outcome should also give Democrats reason to believe that a two-term, transformative presidency is already underway.
Specific Wins
x Don't overlook this: At least 4 of the 5 swing states that decided 2020 won't have election-denying governors or secretaries of state. It may soon be 5. That's a huge step toward averting a 2024 crisis. Voters put MAGA authoritarianism on the defensive.
https://t.co/WsYvr3yqIe — Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 9, 2022
and this from yesterday!!!
x BREAKING: Democrat Mark Kelly wins re-election to the U.S. Senate in Arizona, NBC News projects.
https://t.co/JDaqBeenEq pic.twitter.com/PQoEhso3kf — NBC News (@NBCNews) November 12, 2022
and this!
x Very possibly the single most extreme Republican nominee for elections chief has been defeated. CNN projects Adrian Fontes (D) has won as Arizona's secretary of state -- beating Mark Finchem (R), a promoter of bonkers lies who is still trying to decertify Biden's 2020 victory. — Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 12, 2022
All the Extreme Republicans Boosted by Democrats in the Primaries Lost Their Midterm Races
Democrats faced criticism this year for investing nearly $19 million in the primary races of far-right Republican candidates, but their gamble appeared to pay off on election night. According to an analysis by The Washington Post, Democrats intervened in 13 primary races to support the more extreme right-wing Republican, in the hopes that the Republican would be easier to defeat in the general election against a Democratic opponent. Of the six of those Republicans who won the primary, all of them lost their general election races by Wednesday.
Republicans who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election seem to have performed particularly poorly
and locally:
Democrats win every State Legislative seat in Erie County
Democrats in the New York State Legislature came out on top Tuesday night, winning every State Assembly and State Senate race in Erie County. Assemblyman Patrick Burke defeated challenger Sandy Magnano to continue to serve in his role over the 142nd Assembly District. Democratic Chairman and Erie County Democratic Elections Commissioner Jeremy Zellner expressed his disdain about the tactics he felt the GOP used against Burke in a speech at the Democratic election headquarters Tuesday night. "Republicans went out and found somebody who was literally an insurrectionist, election-denying, complete radical, and put them up against Assemblymember Burke and thought that they were going to pull this off," Burke said. "They spent hundreds of thousands of dollars... attacking him and just dumping it all out there. But he proved that you keep your nose to the grindstone, you're successful. You deliver for the community, you're successful. You stand up for what you believe in, you're successful. That's what all of these state legislators do for our community."
x MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Democrats have taken control of both chambers of the Minnesota Legislature, putting the party in full control of state government for the first time since 2014. — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 9, 2022
How Americans voted for abortion rights
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June, Americans have had six chances to vote directly on laws that would affect their access to abortion — once last summer in Kansas and five in this year’s midterm elections. Every single time, voters have pushed for abortion rights. Abortion measures were on the midterm ballots in five states: California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont. Preliminary results show that, in all five, voters sought to either maintain or strengthen abortion access in their state. In Montana, voters rejected the so-called “born alive” measure, which would have required health care providers to treat infants born at any stage in development, including after an abortion, or face criminal penalties. Critics said it gave the state too much power in deciding what should be a medical decision, and that it could result in pregnancy complications. In Vermont, California, and Michigan, voters passed proposals to enshrine reproductive rights into the states’ constitutions. In other words, they’re attempting to codify abortion rights that are dissolving at a federal level.
x 🚨 PROJECTION
MICHIGAN DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE STATE HOUSE. WIN A TRIFECTA FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1980s.
Nate Shannon (D) wins house district 58 in Macomb county, defeating Michelle Smith (R) — umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) November 9, 2022
x This is extraordinary. Nevada is about to add protections for sexual orientation and gender identity into its constitution. I believe this will be the first state to explicitly do so and they did by popular vote. pic.twitter.com/lCyov6M5wV — Alejandra Caraballo (@Esqueer_) November 9, 2022
x Colorado voters approved a ballot measure to provide free meals for all public school students.
The measure will help schools pay for the meals by raising $100 million a year by increasing taxes on the state's richest residents.
https://t.co/w3kir6m6oj — NPR (@NPR) November 9, 2022
Tina Kotek, a Progressive, Will Be Oregon’s Next Governor
Tina Kotek, a progressive Democrat who faced a pair of well-funded challengers, was elected to lead Oregon, according to The Associated Press. Ms. Kotek’s victory, declared on Thursday, will make her and Maura Healey, the barrier-breaking attorney general who won the Massachusetts governor’s race this week, the first openly lesbian governors in American history. Voters previously elected a gay man as governor (Jared Polis of Colorado, who was re-elected on Tuesday) and a bisexual woman (Kate Brown of Oregon), both of whom are also Democrats. Ms. Kotek, a former Oregon State House speaker, defeated Christine Drazan, a Republican, and Betsy Johnson, a Democrat-turned-independent who campaigned as a centrist.
x NBC News: South Dakotans voted to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, providing tens of thousands of impoverished people with access to health care and dismissing state GOP attempts to sink the effort. @MSNBC — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 10, 2022
Democrats win control of Michigan Legislature for 1st time in decades
Michigan Democrats are poised to win full control of state government by taking majorities in the Legislature for the first time in 40 years, along with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's reelection victory.
x The blue tsunami in Michigan may be the biggest story of the 2022 election.
The GOP's abortion extremism may not only cause them big problems in 2024 but it may lead to a lasting degradation of their brand w/younger Americans that could cause them problems for decades.
https://t.co/4No8FnIj9a — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 10, 2022
New Mexico just voted to make pre-K a universal right
This November, after a political fight that stretches back more than a decade, New Mexico voters are poised to approve a ballot measure that would make the Southwestern state the first in the country to guarantee a constitutional right to early childhood education. The measure would authorize lawmakers to draw new money from a state sovereign wealth fund to provide a dedicated funding stream for universal preschool and child care, and bolstering home-visiting programs for new parents.
x BOSTON (AP) — Massachusetts voters approve amendment to state constitution to increase taxes on those earning over $1 million a year. — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 11, 2022
The GOP thought it could make gains in New England. A blue wave hit instead.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) bounded up to the stage in a high-ceilinged ballroom in Copley Square on Tuesday to the loud cheers of an ebullient crowd. “Wow, what a night,” she said. Results were still being tallied across the country, but in Massachusetts, Democrats had cause to rejoice. “We can see our future,” Warren said. “It is bright, and it is blue.” Heading into Tuesday’s midterms, New England was considered a region where Republicans might make crucial inroads, potentially picking up key seats in a Democratic stronghold on the road to a broader nationwide victory. Instead, the result here looked more like a blue wave. Republicans lost three House races that were considered competitive in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Hampshire, as well as a similar Senate race in New Hampshire.
x I know everyone is following the Boebert/Frisch race, but Dems picked up another seat they were expected to lose last night - Colorado's CD8, a new seat that's 40% Latino.
This was huge & deserves more attention. Dr Yadira Caraveo will be CO's 1st Latina in Congress. #copolitics
https://t.co/lqCcyseBCl — Laura Chapin (@LauraChapin) November 10, 2022
x Oregon, Alabama, Tennessee, and Vermont have passed ballot measures to strip antiquated language from state constitutions that allowed slavery and forced labor as punishments for crimes. — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 10, 2022
Wisconsin Republicans do not secure a supermajority
Republicans came up short in their quest for a supermajority in the state Legislature Tuesday, which would have given lawmakers the power to override Gov. Tony Evers' vetoes.
x Nebraska voters have approved a ballot measure raising the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 9, 2022
x Republican Mayra Flores winning a special election in June was touted as a massive GOP gain by Fox News and Kevin McCarthy. The good times didn't last long -- she lost tonight.
https://t.co/3EJLwSSrv1 — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2022
Once Kari Lake officially loses 🤞🏻they will be 0 for 7!:
x Tonight, the GOP GOVERNOR Candidates Who Refused To Say If They'd Have Certified Biden's 2020 Win In Their States:
❔Kari Lake, Arizona
❌ Tim Michels, Wisconsin
❌ Tudor Dixon, Michigan
❌ Doug Mastriano, PA
❌ Darren Bailey, Illinois
❌ Dan Cox, Maryland
❌ Lee Zeldin, NY — Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) November 9, 2022
and this. WOW:
x Remarkable: this will be the first midterm the party in power hasn't lost a *single* state legislative chamber since 1934.
https://t.co/vg3kM7DVfW — Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) November 11, 2022
Big Losses for Bad folks
School culture war campaigns fall flat in some tight races
This week’s election results called into question the power of culture war education politics, as a string of Republicans who leaned into the issue lost close races or were trailing their opponents. But in some of Tuesday’s highest-profile, closest races, hard-edge attacks over gender identity, patriotism and parents’ rights appear to have been insufficient. Republican gubernatorial candidates who trumpeted these issues lost in Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin — and trailed in Arizona
x Poetic justice: Not only did Kevin McCarthy's corrupt bargain with Trump fail catastrophically, the MAGA caucus in the House now sees him as a wounded animal.
https://t.co/WsYvr3yqIe pic.twitter.com/4lSbmzsodJ — Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 9, 2022
‘That certainly didn’t help’: GOP blame game spreads after midterm shortfalls
Mitch McConnell’s high-spending super PAC has a suggestion for their party’s campaign committee: Consider picking candidates in primaries who won’t collapse in the general election. Others see a much bigger issue: Former President Donald Trump and his polarizing presence on the campaign trail – especially as he teased a 2024 campaign in the final days of the midterms. “That certainly didn’t help,” one Republican lawmaker said. Then there’s abortion, and Republican hand-wringing over their party’s failure to effectively respond to an onslaught of Democratic attacks. All the while, some are taking out their frustration at party leaders like McConnell and Kevin McCarthy. “Washington Republicanism lost big Tuesday night,” said Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican. The blame game taking shape in GOP circles comes after bullish predictions of a red wave that failed to materialize. Republicans are now at risk of serving in the Senate minority for the second straight Congress and are struggling to take even a narrow House majority.
Trump’s Candidates Fell on Their Faces.
Weeks before the primary election, former President Donald Trump gave Hines his “Complete and Total Endorsement,” calling him a “proven winner both on and off the field” who would “help win a huge Republican majority in the House of Representatives.” Ultimately, Trump’s backing may have been decisive in Hines’ primary win. In a crowded field, he took 32 percent of the vote, with his closest rivals at 28 and 17 percent, respectively. Despite his MAGA politics and liabilities as a candidate, Hines was expected to ride a red wave and bring the GOP one seat closer to a House majority. Instead, he lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel by 2 points on Tuesday. Hines was just one example of a nationwide phenomenon in this week’s midterm elections. In some of the most competitive races for Congress and statehouses, several Republicans who Trump boosted through the primaries flopped in the general election.
Nickel was one of our candidates, BTW!
Donald Trump’s emperor-has-no-clothes moment
“We’re going to win so much,” he said on the campaign trail in 2016. “You’re going to get tired of winning. You’re going to say, ‘Please Mr. President, I have a headache. Please, don’t win so much. This is getting terrible.’ And I’m going to say, ‘No, we have to make America great again.’ You’re gonna say, ‘Please.’ I said, ‘Nope, nope. We’re gonna keep winning.’” Trump’s entire persona is wrapped up in this notion that – with apologies to DJ Khaled – all he does is win. In his view, he is the ultimate winner in life – He’s rich! He’s successful! He’s famous! – and the only people who don’t acknowledge that are the haters and the losers. Except that, in politics at least, Trump has lost a whole lot more than he has won. Trump won the 2016 presidential race, yes. But since then the following things have happened: * Republicans lost control of the House in 2018. * Trump lost the White House in 2020. * Republicans lost control of the Senate in 2021. * Republicans dramatically underperformed despite high expectations in the 2022 midterm elections.
x One area we have to explore together is what a political disaster MAGA/Trump has been for Rs:
- lost Presidency/Senate/House in 18/20
- Disappointing 22
- Huge R defections across US, fractured coalition
- Attack on voting/early vote costly
- Candidates couldn't raise money 6/ — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 10, 2022
x The Rupert Murdoch-owned New York Post has turned on “Trumpty Dumpty.” This could get interesting, folks!! 🍿 pic.twitter.com/7RAIxu2SVM — Jon Cooper (@joncoopertweets) November 10, 2022
x Well this is interesting.
https://t.co/ommIBmvAcU — Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) November 9, 2022
Even the DeSantis bubble may burst
“Can’t we just lie to ourselves for a while?” Glenn Beck, the right-wing talk radio host, was half-joking when he made this suggestion the day after Tuesday’s elections, but he voiced a longing that a number of Republicans had after the midterms: a hope to linger with the visions of a red tsunami that wiped out Democratic power across the country. The reality – that the party had an unusually poor showing in a midterm that many expected would be a historic blowout – felt too sour to linger on. Across right-wing media outlets the day after the election, commentators heaped praise on DeSantis while excoriating former President Donald Trump. Recriminations came swiftly. “Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser,” read the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board’s headline, capturing a sentiment repeated on Fox News and right-wing podcasts and radio shows in the days after the election: Trump now carried the stench of losing; DeSantis was the party’s new future. ut before declaring this the dawn of DeSantis, remember: It is just as likely the next few weeks will be the high-water mark of his presidential aspirations. The spotlight can very quickly become the hot seat, and DeSantis is both untested as a national candidate and as a Trump adversary. Those who see an easy pivot from the era of Trump to the age of DeSantis are likely in for another wave of disappointment, both because of the particulars of DeSantis’ victory and the persistence of Trump’s power.
Other good news
Two Cheers for the Biden Economy
Some of us have been arguing for a while that economic performance under President Biden has been better than much of what you see in the news media would suggest. The job market has actually been terrific, with a stunningly fast return to prepandemic employment levels, contrasting with the sluggish recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. Rising prices have eroded purchasing power, but wages have also risen, outpacing inflation for lower-paid workers both since the eve of the pandemic and since Biden took office. Economists pointing out the positive economic news have generally been dismissed as out of touch; ordinary Americans, we were told, weren’t feeling it. After all, the widely cited University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment has plunged to levels not seen since the financial crisis, and before that the stagflation of 1980. But there are other indicators, and they tell a different story. Another long-running consumer survey, from the nonpartisan Conference Board, shows inflation taking a toll on confidence — but only enough to bring it down to 2015 levels. And if you ask me, this week’s election looked more Conference Board than Michigan. A Federal Reserve survey for 2021 showed households very negative on the national economy but very positive on their own finances, and somewhere in between on local economies, for which they have firsthand knowledge. My guess is that the results for 2022 will look similar. And consumer spending has remained strong, which doesn’t match up with claims of intense economic pessimism. It seems at least possible that Americans told pollsters that the economy is terrible, because that’s what they’ve been hearing from the media, but voted based on their personal experience, which is much more mixed.
After prices rise less than expected, markets soar on hopes of lower inflation
Inflation stayed high but showed signs of slowing in October, spurring new optimism on Wall Street The markets rallied on hopes that inflation may have peaked. At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones industrial average soared nearly 1,200 points, or 3.7 percent. The S&P 500 rose 5.5 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 7.3 percent. The indexes clinched their biggest one-day rallies since 2020
Ukrainian Troops Enter Kherson as Russia Says Its Withdrawal There Is Complete
Ukraine’s troops entered the key city of Kherson on Friday, its military said, as jubilant residents waved Ukrainian flags after a major Russian retreat. The move puts Kyiv on the cusp of achieving one of its most significant victories of the war and deals a bitter blow to President Vladimir V. Putin, who just a month ago declared Kherson a part of Russia forever. Videos shared by Ukrainian government officials on social media showed scenes of civilians who had endured nearly nine months of occupation cheering the arrival of a contingent of Ukrainian troops. Earlier in the morning Russia had said that the withdrawal of its forces across the Dnipro River was complete.
x Are you also crying while watching this? 🥺 pic.twitter.com/6GbRh1xNf6 — UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) November 11, 2022
On the lighter Side
If you are looking for a way to help, we started a fundraiser for Senator Warnock’s very important run-off election.
You can donate here:
Thanks!
I am so lucky, and so proud, to be in this with all of you 🧡💜💚💛✊🏾✊🏽✊🏻💛💚💜🧡
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