(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



On to 2024. Keep a Hot Streak Going [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2022-11-12

Results for democrats were medium. On the one hand, a lot better than expected, no red wave. State governments have enough people to not steal an election. On the other hand, bare senate control with Manchinema, and a likely narrow house loss is still a loss. Even a narrow win has some blue dogs left to Manchinema that part of congress. And supreme court races in some states were lost, which could hurt Gerrymandering.

Global Warming is getting worse. Abortion is still not protected. Supreme Court is still 6-3. To properly fix these things, we want actual, proper dem control. A Trifecta. A blue congress, with moderates and blue dogs sidelined as much as possible, and that damn filibuster forced to find a new home.

We need to:

-Win the Georgia Runoff

-Prepare Ohio, Montana, and Texas for the next election. Voter registration, party organization, activism, anything that helps. In addition to swing states.

-Wisconsin Supreme Court next year. Barely lost an election in 2019, time to actually win this one.

-Primary Cuellar. And other moderates. I don’t have all of them listed, but we will hear about them as the election approaches.

-Primary Sinema

-Go all out in the next election. You’ll know when the fundraising emails and texts arrive. If they still are doing those next time.

The Senate

Right now democrats are likely 48-49 in the senate. Almost certainly 50-49 as ballots are counted in NV and AZ. Democrats need at least 50 non-Manchinema senators to pass good bills. This is the senate map in 2024:

-Sinema can, and likely will, be primaried in 2024. AZ is voting like a lean blue state in most races this year. Electing a good senator should be no problem.

-In addition to swing states, democratic senators are up in three red states: Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. Manchin obviously doesn’t matter for passing big bills, so Ohio and Montana are the states that need help. The time to start is after the Georgia runoff, If anyone in Ohio or Montana knows of any groups helping with elections, let’s hear it and send assistance.

-Most Republican senators are in very red states. Most of these states will not vote for a democratic senator unless that perfect politician comes along. Probably not even then. Before the election, I would have said Texas and Florida are the only possible pickup states. After the election…Looks like Texas is it, and it will be tough. It is trending towards swing state. But it started red and changes take time. Add Texas as a state that needs help right after Georgia runoffs.

-Can democrats pull this off? It’s worth going for. Democratic organizations have gotten quite organized. Tester’s last race was a 3.5% win, Brown about 7%, so there is some vote margin to lose. In Texas, the vote shares in the governor’s race was about the same as 2018, in about an 8-10% worse environment.

-Barnes’ loss hurts badly. So close, and sounds like more money or a different advertising strategy changes the winner. 1 out of 3 red states is a lot easier than 2 out of 3. If anyone has a time machine, transfer some money from Demings to Barnes, please.

–Maine 2020 and North Carolina both years also hurt. Though North Carolina looks stubbornly about 5% more Republican than the country. And if Brown and Tester exist an opposite blue state Senator is no surprise.

-Which means, again, support Texas, Montana, Ohio ASAP. However you can.

The House

-North Carolina had a supreme court election, a Republican won. More Gerrymandering expected in that state, maybe a couple others.

-However, midterm backlash probably is still a thing. Even just a little bit helps in a presidential election. Plu extra time for young voters to replace old, and Democratic organizations to strengthen. So house should be winnable. New York districts are obvious targets, plus random close ones all around the country.

-Primaries:

–Cisneros vs. Cuellar. Barely won by Cuellar, after Pelosi, Clyburn, and lots of AIPAC spending got involved, big regional split between Rio Grande and San Antonio suburbs. After all the fuss, voted for Cuellar by about 13%, not even close. If Cisneros or someone similar wants to try again, this primary is winnable, turnout was less near san Antonio than the Rio Grande, more younger voters 2 years later, and organizations that support her probably continue ot improve.

–Other primaries for lefties to compete in: Sean Patrick Maloney’s district. Possibly the one with 5ish candidates as well. A lot more spread around the country, though I don’t remember specific ones offhand.

State Races

-NC governor is the big swing state governor up in 2024.

-Virginia legislature has elections next year.

-Wisconsin has a supreme court race next year. Republicans gained and kept control with closely contested elections. This election could reverse it.





[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135649/-On-to-2024-Keep-a-Hot-Streak-Going

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/