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Dems chances of holding House increase with flip of WA-3, MSNBC now projecting 219-216 GOP majority [1]

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Date: 2022-11-12

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still has a chance to keep holding the gavel

Nancy Pelosi may yet end up keeping the gavel as House Speaker. The projected Republican majority has been steadily shrinking, and it’s moving toward tossup territory. It may take weeks to determine which party controls the House.

MSNBC projected that Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has defeated Donald Trump-endorsed Joe Kent in CD-3 in southwest Washington state. That’s a flip of the seat held by Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler for more than a decade. Herrera Beutler, who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, failed to advance out of the primary.

MSNBC projected that Democrats won another seat when Yadira Caraveo defeated Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer for an upset victory in Colorado’s 8th CD. This was an open seat created after Colorado gained a seat after the 2020 census. She will become the first Latina to represent Colorado in Congress.

With the flip, Republicans have won 211 seats and Democrats 205. There are 19 races that still have not been called. It takes 218 seats to claim the majority.

The Republicans are still favored to gain control of the House with a razor-thin majority. Republicans only need to win seven of the 19 seats, while Democrats need to win 13.

MSNBC is now projecting that Republicans will have a 219-216 majority plus or minus 4 seats.

x Revision on House projection pic.twitter.com/dv3eQfcnPr — Acyn (@Acyn) November 12, 2022

CNN provided details on the 19 uncalled races, and this is where it gets interesting. Democrats were leading in nine of these districts, although in many races the margin was razor-thin. Republicans led in 10 seats, but in seven of them the margin was less than 5 percentage points..

Ten of the districts are in California where the vote count sometimes can take more than a week. In the past the extended vote count has trended Democratic in many districts.

There are two uncalled seats each in Arizona and Oregon, and one seat each in Alaska, Colorado, Maine, New Mexico and New York.

(Updates with Democrat Yadira Caraveo declared the winner in CO-08, edits to conform.)

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