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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Stop the Steal is losing at the ballot box [1]

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Date: 2022-11-12

James Fallows/Substack:

The Political Press Needs a Time Out

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. How about if we waste less time trying: A proposal.

Joe Biden could have a much harder time ahead of him in appointing judges. Or easier. We don’t know.

Here’s what we do know:

First, that the results will not be remotely on a scale with previous first-term midterm wipeouts, especially for Democrats. As a reminder, among post-World War II Democratic presidents...

Every first-term president since World War II (except one) has suffered midterm election losses. The average loss has been around 30 House seats. The one exception is George W. Bush in 2002, then at a height of public support after the 9/11 attacks and before the invasion of Iraq. His party gained 8 seats in the House.2

A lot has changed over this span—including, crucially, that far fewer House seats are potentially “in play” any more, since so many have been gerrymandered into one-party locks. But in historic terms, the midterm results under Joe Biden in 2022 are likely to be far better for the incumbent party and its president than for other modern presidents. As Biden would say, it’s a BFD.

Second, what has happened appears to be entirely at odds with what the political-reporter cadre — the people whose entire job is predicting and pre-explaining political trends — had been preparing the public for.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135441/-Abbreviated-Pundit-Roundup-Stop-the-Steal-is-losing-at-the-ballot-box

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