(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Ukraine: What comes after Kherson? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2022-11-11

The liberation of Kherson is such a big step for Ukraine. If it hadn’t been for betrayal, Ukraine might have been able to hold the Dnipro against Russia. With it back in Ukraine’s control, the Russians are finally all east of the Dnipro and it will serve as a significant barrier for Russia moving west again. Ukraine will be able to hold a defensive line on the West side of the river with fewer troops than they currently have there. Many of the troops recently used will be able to be transferred to the east for future operations.

Further, Ukraine has most likely been preparing another offensive somewhere in the east. It will probably be either continuing the drive to Starobilsk to cut the N/S rail line seen above, or heading south from Zaporizhzhia to either Melitopol or Mariupol. All of these options have been much talked about on the net and where Ukraine goes next will be partially dictated by where they feel Russia is the weakest.

Ideally, Ukraine would be ready to go soon. The large number of troops who have just retreated from Kherson will be highly disorganized and lacking many supplies and critical equipment. Attacking quickly into southern Ukraine now from Zaporizhzhia would hinder the Russians as all those disorganized troops will be clogging the roads preventing more organized units from moving quickly. This distance is roughly 100 miles which is about twice that of the Kupiansk offensive, so it would be a stretch. However, Ukraine can pressure Russia with potential river crossings freezing Russian troops along the river. Ukraine can also use planned barges across the river as additional resupply to the normal road and rail supply.

With sufficient troops Ukraine can attack both Mariupol and Melitopol at the same time. This puts Russia in a bind as to where to defend. If Russia defends equally, Ukraine can focus on one salient sending reserves there. The secondary salient would then be a pinning force making it difficult for Russia to shift forces away from there. If either thrust succeeds it cuts off the land bridge to the western Russian forces further limiting supplies to that area. If they both succeed, Ukraine would end up trapping some Russian forces in the middle.

The Melitopol advance would be more important, though. There is a N/S railroad Ukraine would be able to use to help with resupply. The Mariupol advance would be road only, at least initially. Melitopol is also on the way to Crimea and would threaten to trap Russian troops further west.

I’m so excited for Ukraine on the progress they’re making. I continue to wish them speedy success. They are making masterful decisions and may they continue to do so. Ukraine is an amazing example for us all on the importance of standing up to fight against oppressors.

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/11/2135452/-Ukraine-What-comes-after-Kherson

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/

You are viewing proxied material from magical.fish. The copyright of proxied material belongs to its original authors. Any comments or complaints in relation to proxied material should be directed to the original authors of the content concerned. Please see the disclaimer for more details.