(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Ukraine Invasion Day 261: fighting won't halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2022-11-10
ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions. NBC News reported on November 9 that some US and Western defense officials are eyeing an “expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine.”[2] Autumn and springtime mud can slow or halt military advances, as can faulty or insufficient wintertime equipment. Some military equipment may need to be adapted for colder weather, and shortages of equipment or ammunition could slow advances due to logistical difficulties — not winter weather.[3] Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but well-supplied Ukrainian forces are unlikely to halt their counteroffensives due to the arrival of winter weather and may be able to take advantage of frozen terrain to move more easily than they could in the muddy autumn months. If fighting does halt this winter, it will be due to logistical challenges and the culmination of several campaigns on both sides. The Russian campaigns to capture all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts all culminated months ago (despite the repeated insistence of Russian forces on launching ineffective attacks), and Russian forces are firmly on the defensive across most of the frontline.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Ukrainians routed the Russians in Kherson region. Announcements by leadership of the Russian fascist state of “withdrawal” are nonsense. Russians soldiers are changing into civilian clothes and fleeing their positions, as they did in Chernihiv and Sumy regions early this year.
x The main artillery missions are:
• Level 1: harassment
• Level 2: suppression
• Level 3: destruction
• Level 4: annihilation
So far Ukrainians limited themselves in Kherson to level 1 fires... and now they jacked it up to level 4!pic.twitter.com/ItLg6MoQy1 — Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) November 10, 2022
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Ukrainian forces made substantial gains throughout Kherson Oblast on November 10. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny stated that in the past day, Ukrainian forces have advanced 7km and liberated six settlements in the Petropavlivka-Novoraysk direction (towards Beryslav) and advanced 7km and liberated six settlements in the Pervomaiske–Kherson City direction (towards Kherson City).[30] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces have advanced the frontline by 7km and liberated 12 settlements, amounting to over 260 square kilometers of territory in the past day.[31] Zaluzhny stated that since October 1, Ukrainian forces have taken back 41 settlements in the Kherson direction.[32] Ukrainian military sources also reported that Russian troops continue efforts to partially withdraw troops from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River but emphasized that Russian forces are conducting continued maneuvers on the west bank, statements in line with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces will conduct a fighting withdrawal.[33]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and U.S. officials expressed skepticism at Russia’s decision to order troops to retreat from Kherson and said they would monitor movements in the coming days.
“The enemy does not bring us gifts,” Zelensky said.
https://t.co/2l02Yq1cBf — The New York Times (@nytimes) November 10, 2022
Here’s what we know:
Ukraine’s military is moving cautiously as it reclaims areas in the south.
The loss of Kherson, where tattered billboards have proclaimed that “Russia is here forever,” would be one of the most serious blows of the war for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. It was only a little over a month ago that he took to a stage in Red Square in Moscow to declare Kherson and three other regions in Ukraine part of the Russian nation. His move to illegally annex parts of Ukraine was condemned around the world.
www.nytimes.com/...
x ✍️Russian Invasion - Day 260 | Summary of the situation + detailed maps.
tldr: Ukrainian Army is approaching Kherson, Russians retreat across Dnipro
Read on:
https://t.co/SMvlxnPzFs#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/Gb7ePPXaY4 — MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) November 10, 2022
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 10. Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Hromov announced that Ukrainian forces advanced by two kilometers in an unspecified area of Luhansk Oblast.[19] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Novoselivske and Makiivka, about 19km northwest and 21km southwest of Svatove, respectively.[20] The Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation characterized Russian assaults in Luhansk Oblast as unsuccessful small-arms battles.[21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces made over a dozen unsuccessful assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line, including an assault on Kuzemivka, about 15km northwest of Svatove.[22] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed to have repelled Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove) and Ploshchanka (about 16km northwest of Kreminna).[23] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces suppressed Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force attempts on Orlianka and Kyslivka, about 32km northwest of Svatove.[24] A Russian source also claimed that Ukrainian forces carried out a reconnaissance-in-force in the direction of Chervonopopivka, northwest of Kreminna.[25]
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian logistics in Luhansk Oblast on November 9 and November 10. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are moving large quantities of supplies and many reserves in the direction of Svatove-Kreminna but noted that Ukrainian forces continue to shell Russian main supply routes.[26] Social media footage also showed ruined asphalt and muddy roads in Svatove due to the Russian transfer of heavy equipment on poor roads, which may also complicate Russian equipment transfers.[27] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed on November 10 that Ukrainian forces struck Svatove with two HIMARS missiles.[28] Geolocated images posted on November 10 show the aftermath of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on Stakhanov and a mine near Krynychne on the night of November 9 to 10.[29]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults around Bakhmut near Soledar (10km northeast), Klishchiiivka (6km southwest), Mayorsk (20km south), Yakovlivka (15km northeast), Andriivka (9km southwest), and Bilohorivka (20km northeast).[43] Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov reported that Russian forces continued to suffer significant losses in the Bakhmut direction and National Guard of Ukraine representative Mykola Urshalovych stated that Russian forces continue to make suicidal attempts to launch assaults on Ukrainian positions around Bakhmut with “maniacal persistence.”[44] Urshalovych noted that Russian forces are constantly conducting reconnaissance-in-force, which he said indicates that Russian forces have a low level of equipment within intelligence units. A Russian source stated that the Wagner Group is trying to advance to the city limits of Bakhmut on the eastern outskirts of the city, and that Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions northeast of Bakhmut near Yakovlivka.[45] Ukrainian and Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces, including elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 6th Cossack Regiment, continued fighting northeast of Bakhmut in Soledar.[46] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces fully captured Bakhmutske and that Russian forces and the Wagner Group control 40–50% of Bilohorivka.[47] Russian forces continued routine shelling along the line of contact in the Bakhmut area.[48]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area on November 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Vesele, Nevelske, Pervomaiske, and Novomykhailivka, all along an arc of the western outskirts of Donetsk City.[49] The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) militia claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian transports, ammunition depots, and strongholds in the vicinity of Pervomaiske.[50] A Russian source reported that Russian forces conducted ground assaults near Novomykhailivka to reach Konstantinivka and cut off the road to Marinka from the south.[51] Russian sources claimed that tense battles are ongoing towards Opytne and Marinka.[52] Russian forces conducted routine shelling in the Avdiivka–Donetsk City area.[53]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Canada will also send winter uniforms for #Ukraine (and I guess Germany) and #Latvian companies will send uniforms as well, check the link below Thank you very much #Latvia!!
https://t.co/EJn14A1ylO — 🇺🇦 Fernando CPB 🇲🇽 (@Ferbeltranmx) November 11, 2022
x Winter might present a major opportunity for the Ukrainian military. Fighting in Ukraine historically has been seasonal. We typically would see an intensification of the fighting during the winter#Russia #ColonialWar vs #Ukraine
https://t.co/7DQAaQXAUD — theoverview 🇺🇦 (@theoverview_) November 10, 2022
x The Netherlands is planning to donate some its surplus F-16s to NATO states on the eastern flank in exchange for them sending their MiG-29 and Sukhoi fighter jets to Ukraine.
The deal still needs approval from Washington.
Ukraine could gain a around 50-60 fighter jets from CEE. pic.twitter.com/hyb3J4FvUe — Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 10, 2022
x Avenger Air Defense Systems Headed To Ukraine
https://t.co/yuENA9IkpE — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) November 10, 2022
x Russia and Ukraine are burning through artillery shells and other weapons and ammo at a rate not seen since the Korean War, said officials, and will need to restock this winter.
By @ckubeNBC
https://t.co/VErFc69NVA — NBC Investigations (@NBCInvestigates) November 11, 2022
Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces. The major Ukrainian victory underway in Kherson Oblast will not be Ukraine’s last. Fighting will continue on the southern axis; in Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast (the only place Russian forces are still attempting meaningful offensives); and in northern Luhansk Oblast as Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations. Russian officials are busy attempting to train 120,000 conscripts to deploy to the frontlines in the spring.[4] Ukrainian forces likely aim to liberate as much occupied territory as possible before those Russian reinforcements arrive. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on November 7 that Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate with Russian forces until certain conditions are met, including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the prosecution of Russian war criminals, payment for war damages, and promises that Russia will not again invade Ukraine.[5] A wintertime ceasefire would only benefit Russian forces, who would use that opportunity to bolster their faltering defenses and continue their genocidal campaign to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied parts of Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x The right and left banks of rivers match the perspective of a vessel drifting with the flow of the river. That perspective sometimes leads to the right bank of a river being on the left side of a map of that river, usually when the river flows north to south, as the #Dnipro does. pic.twitter.com/Ubhc6lldSK — ISW (@TheStudyofWar) November 11, 2022
x According to Russian Media Sources the Withdrawal of Russian Combat Units from the Western Side of the Dnipro River is taking too long and these Units are now in range of Ukrainian Short-Range Artillery. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 10, 2022
x Within the last few hours Ukrainian Forces have reportedly entered the Outskirts of Kherson City. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 10, 2022
x Stremousov, a local Ukrainian politician and blogger, welcomed the Russian occupation of Kherson and became a key pro-Russian voice in the region. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 9, 2022
His death was first reported in Russian state media on Wednesday, shortly after Moscow’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, ordered Russian troops to retreat from the city of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro and take up positions on the river’s east side.
Ukrainian officials have said the announcement could be a trap meant to lure their advancing forces into the city. Its recapturing would be a major victory for Kyiv.
Mr. Stremousov had predicted the Russian pullback in public comments in recent weeks. But on Wednesday, he posted a video on Telegram saying that the Russian Army had defended against a Ukrainian attack and that “the situation is under full control.”
The Russian state news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti reported later that day that Mr. Stremousov had been killed in an accident.
On Thursday, the Kherson health ministry confirmed in a statement on the Telegram messaging app that he had been killed in a collision involving three cars and that two other people had been injured.
www.nytimes.com/…
x “Russia realized it would be better to have an early withdrawal than to be overrun by Ukrainians and suffer massive losses,” said @stavridisj.
Our latest on the state of things in Ukraine
https://t.co/wo8neiEQWp — Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) November 11, 2022
x “'A Ukrainian drone first flew over us, and after that their artillery started to pound us for hours and hours, nonstop...most of our unit is gone, destroyed. It was hell,' he said, adding that his unit’s commanders abandoned them” @PjotrSauer
https://t.co/wxdKb9GK64 pic.twitter.com/RLKiT54ehy — Rob Lee (@RALee85) November 11, 2022
x Short thread on what's happening now in Ukraine, including best guesses and what some sources are telling me.
Short version: it's a good day for Ukraine. Very bad day to be a Russian soldier. 1/n — Brynn Tannehill (@BrynnTannehill) November 11, 2022
History: Russia took Kherson early in the war after collaborationist officials effectively handed over the city. It was the only Oblast capitol taken during the current war, and the largest city occupied by Russia. It lies on the NW bank of the Dnipro river. 2/n
With the the delivery of HIMARS and GMLRs over the summer, Ukraine began systematically cutting of Russian troops on the right (North) bank of the Dnipro by attacking the bridges in Kherson and Nova Khakova. Russia was forced to start using ferries for resupply. 3/n
Ukraine launched its counter offensive into the Kherson Oblast in late August. It was a grinding affair, and slow. Later, Russia announced tha annexation of Kherson, and declared that it would be considered part of its territory. 4/n Ukraine says it has launched a long-awaited offensive to retake the Russian-held south
Ukraine likely did fatal damage to the Russian supply situation on the Right bank of the Dnipro when they heavily damaged the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, which was the primary means of supply to Crimea and Kherson via rail. 5/n UK Defence Ministry: Russian logistical issues intensify after Crimea bridge blast
Until this point, Russia had been placing some of their best units in defense of Kherson. Some of my sources tell me that Russia quietly began rotating these units out after the attack on the Kherch bridge, and replacing them with poorly trained mobilized troops. 6/n
Yesterday Russia announced that they would be withdrawing from the right bank of the Dnipro due to the untenable logistical and tactical situation. They hoped for an orderly withdrawal (duh). It doesn't seem to be happening. 7/n Guess on my part: I believe that Russia intended to use poor quality mobilized troops in fixed positions to act as a sacrificial rearguard to buy time for the remaining high quality units to retrograde across the river. 8/n
It wasn't nearly enough time. The mobiks seem to have collapsed quickly. Now there are reports that Russian concentrations of troops on both sides of the river are coming under intense artillery fire and casualties are reportedly high. 9/n
Best guess: there may have been 4-5k Russian troops left on the right bank of the river. There are reports that Russian air defenses are down while on the move, and that both aerial and SOF artillery spotting against Russian troops milling about waiting for transport. 10/n
Russian Telegram channels tend to confirm these reports, indicating intense and accurate Ukrainian artillery at the marshalling points. Reliable OSINT folks tend to confirm. 11/n Some OSINT folks are warning that tomorrow some really grisly images are going to emerge of the carnage happening overnight. But, the consensus is: it's really bad. We won't know how bad for a few days or a week, but there's a rush of info coming in. 12/n
I wouldn't put something out there, but it is all telling pretty much the same story: Russia wasn't able to get a lot of out, and now they're getting caught by artillery as they try to evacuate and take heavy losses. 13/n
• • •
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/10/2135167/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-261-fighting-won-t-halt-or-enter-a-stalemate-due-to-winter-weather
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
