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Ukraine Invasion Day 260: Kirill Stremousov was no General Patton, James Dean, or even a loose end [1]
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Date: 2022-11-09
The Russian withdrawal from Kherson to the other side of the Dnieper continues. More curious is the escape of the driver of Deputy Governor of Kherson Stremousov. Run away, run away.
Another withdrawal for Russia would mark a further humiliation for Moscow; previous retreats by Russian forces from Kyiv, the outpost Snake Island or Kharkiv — or "tactical withdrawals" as Russia has characterized them — have made even the most pro-Kremlin figures in Russia critical of the country's military officials and strategy.
The loss of Kherson follows a string of other military defeats and retreats by Russia in eastern Ukraine. The city is the capital of the Kherson region, one of four Ukrainian territories that Moscow officially claimed to have annexed and incorporated into the Russian Federation on Sept. 30.
Ukrainian forces have been steadily advancing on the city. Kherson was the only regional capital seized by Russian forces after the February invasion. At the time, the Kremlin insisted Russia was in Kherson "forever."
Later in the day, President Biden told reporters that Moscow's withdrawal order was "evidence of the fact that they have some real problems with the Russian military."
"We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyakfollowing Wednesday's announcement from Moscow, slamming Russia's "staged TV statements."
The announcement drew skepticism from Ukraine's government, which has previously suggested Russia could pretend to pull out of Kherson to lure Ukrainian forces into battle.
"The decision to defend on the left bank of the Dnipro is not easy, but at the same time we will save the lives of our military personnel and the combat capability of our forces," Surovikin said in televised remarks as he presented a report on the Russian military campaign to Shoigu.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday he ordered troops to retreat from Kherson to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River on the recommendation of the commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin.
DNIPRO, Ukraine, and MOSCOW — Russia announced a troop withdrawal from the key Ukrainian city of Kherson on Wednesday, in what would be a major blow to President Vladimir Putin's war effort. But the government in Kyiv was skeptical of the move.
Ukrainian forces have advanced on two fronts and Russian forces have been ordered to partially withdraw from Kherson. Earlier today, @zelenskyyUa told me this might just be a Russian regroup, but he also said at a time of his choosing, progress on the battlefield would come. pic.twitter.com/p058NaklzX
CBC News Changed the Headline: [Russia orders retreat from Kherson, its only captured Ukrainian capital since invading]- to - [Ukraine skeptical of Russian military's claim it will withdraw from Kherson]
“Russia announces a withdrawal from Kherson and new military positions on the Dnipro’s eastern bank. A widely expected move that is nonetheless another huge blow for Putin’s credibility - his forces are abandoning the only regional capital they have captured in this war.”
Throughout the past month, NATO has kept up ISR flights on Ukraine's borders with a few changes in patrol areas. Ukraine has stepped up pressure along the Russian frontlines during this eventful period. This map shows ISR flight activity from 5th October to 5th November 2022. pic.twitter.com/mR2JlsgJtx
More than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the Ukraine war, with similar casualties on the Ukrainian side, the U.S. military estimates. As many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have also been killed.
https://t.co/NfhnmD6gII
x ⚡️The Secretary General of NATO reacted to the statements of the Russian Federation regarding the withdrawal of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region, — Interfax-Ukraine informs. pic.twitter.com/bpb5hjkeJn — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) November 9, 2022
x “What we know is that Russia is being pushed back - first in the north around Kyiv, then in the east around Kharkiv. Then we see how Ukrainians are able to push back Russian troops also in the south around Kherson,” — Jens Stoltenberg emphasized.
👉Follow@Flash_news_ua — FLASH (@Flash_news_ua) November 9, 2022
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson direction since August—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force Russian forces to withdraw across the Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded. As ISW has observed over the previous months, Ukrainian forces engaged in a purposeful and well-executed campaign to target Russian concentration areas, military assets, and logistics nodes throughout Kherson Oblast to make continued Russian positions on the west bank untenable without having to conduct large-scale and costly ground maneuvers to liberate territory.[3] Ukrainian troops launched constant attacks on bridges across the Dnipro River and targeted supply centers and ammunition depots on the east bank of the Dnipro that degraded the ability of Russian forces to supply the grouping on the west bank; Ukrainian forces combined these strikes with prudent and successful ground attacks on key locations such as Davydiv Brid. This campaign has come to fruition. Surovikin directly acknowledged that Russian forces cannot supply their grouping in Kherson City and the surrounding areas due to Ukrainian strikes on critical Russian supply lines to the west bank.[4] Russian sources noted that the withdrawal is a natural consequence of targeted and systematic Ukrainian strikes that cost the Russian grouping on the west bank its major supply arteries, which gradually attritted their overall strength and capabilities.[5]
The Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro is unlikely to be a trap meant to lure Ukrainian troops into costly combat near Kherson City, as some Ukrainian and Western sources have suggested.[6] ISW has previously observed many indicators that Russian forces, military and economic assets, and occupation elements have steadily withdrawn from the west bank across the Dnipro River, and Russian officials have been anticipating and preparing for withdrawal in a way that is incompatible with a campaign to deceive and trap Ukrainian troops.[7] Russian commanders will certainly attempt to slow Ukrainian advances to maintain an orderly withdrawal, and some forces may remain to delay Ukrainian troops in Kherson City itself—but this fighting will be a means to the end of withdrawing as many Russian units as possible in good order.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x More information is emerging about the Russian withdrawal from West Bank of the Dniepr River in #Ukraine. This will have a range of impacts on the war. 1/25 🧵
https://t.co/w9TKPQGxm7 — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) November 10, 2022
2/ This thread builds on my earlier one that contained initial observations about a potential Russian withdrawal. This thread builds on my earlier one that contained initial observations about a potential Russian withdrawal.
3/ The first order issue - is this real or possibly part of a deception campaign to draw the Ukrainians into a fight the Russians have prepared for? My sense is that it is the real deal. The Russian position is very difficult to sustain in #Kherson. My sense is that it is the real deal. The Russian position is very difficult to sustain in
4/ The Ukrainians have fought hard, and undertaken long range strikes and psychological operations, to make the Russian position on the West Bank of the Dniepr untenable. They will also ensure the withdrawing Russians are attacked where possible. The Ukrainians have fought hard, and undertaken long range strikes and psychological operations, to make the Russian position on the West Bank of the Dniepr untenable. They will also ensure the withdrawing Russians are attacked where possible.
5/ What about Ukraine’s next steps? It is unlikely the Ukrainians will be undertaking a large scale crossing of the Dniepr to the eastern bank anytime soon.
6/ Not only would this be a massive, deliberate operation, it would attack into a dense series of Russian defensive zones. Not only would this be a massive, deliberate operation, it would attack into a dense series of Russian defensive zones.
7/ Consequently, the Ukrainians - who prefer to attack indirectly, attrit enemy logistic and C2, and corrode the Russians from within - will look for other opportunities in other areas to clear the Russians from the south.
8/ Of course, Ukrainian deep strikes will continue. Their recapture of Kherson will expand the area in the south that systems like #HIMARS can reach for shaping and strike activities in support of future offensives. Of course, Ukrainian deep strikes will continue. Their recapture of Kherson will expand the area in the south that systems likecan reach for shaping and strike activities in support of future offensives.
9/ A second issue: this halts any future Russian designs on Odesa, but puts the Ukrainians a step closer to recapturing the south. Capturing Kherson is also an important enabling operation for a future campaign to recapture Crimea. A second issue: this halts any future Russian designs on Odesa, but puts the Ukrainians a step closer to recapturing the south. Capturing Kherson is also an important enabling operation for a future campaign to recapture Crimea.
10/ A third observation: while this announcement was made by the military, ceding territory is political. There is no way this would have occurred without Putin’s sign off.
@MaxBoot describes here). But it is also evidence he is setting up the military as the fall guys for the Russian debacle in #Ukraine. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… 11/This is evidence that Putin can recognise reality, and can make rational decisions (asdescribes here). But it is also evidence he is setting up the military as the fall guys for the Russian debacle in
12/ Fourth, the pace and organization of any Russian withdrawal - given this should be a deliberate activity - will tell us much about the morale and capability of the Russian forces in the south.
13/ As I highlighted in this previous thread, conducting a tactical withdrawal in good order is a very difficult undertaking, even in the best of circumstances - Unroll available on Thread Reader As I highlighted in this previous thread, conducting a tactical withdrawal in good order is a very difficult undertaking, even in the best of circumstances -
14/ And, given the time the Russians have had to prepare this withdrawal, they may not be leaving behind as much equipment & munitions as they did in the Kharkiv offensive. It may not be a bonanza of recovering enemy equipment for the Ukrainians.
15/ A fifth issue is that the Russians may accompany this withdrawal with stepped up strategic strikes elsewhere in Ukraine. While their own inventory of long range strike weapons is much smaller, they are seeking more from Iran.
16/ From a Russian perspective, these strikes would continue their ongoing ‘energy warfare’ against Ukraine, and would also provide strategic comms material to distract a Russian audience from the Kherson withdrawal & loss of territory. From a Russian perspective, these strikes would continue their ongoing ‘energy warfare’ against Ukraine, and would also provide strategic comms material to distract a Russian audience from the Kherson withdrawal & loss of territory.
17/ This is important for Putin. Having told the Russian people, in the annexation declaration, that Kherson is part of Russia, Putin will need a story to justify the withdrawal and distract the domestic audience from it.
18/ Sixth, with less territory to defend and coupled with an influx of mobilised troops, Surovikin can rebuild battered combat and support units. He may also build operational reserves in the south or east.
19/ The locations to which withdrawn troops are deployed will also provide insights into their combat status as well as General Surovikin’s likely priorities for the winter and into early 2023. This consolidation might also prolong the war.
20/ A seventh point: this is a validation of Ukraine’s military strategy and the approach taken by its senior leadership. They are succeeding and the Russians know it. This will also provide a morale boost for Ukraine going into winter.
21/ Finally, now is NOT the time to force Ukraine into negotiations. The Russians might be weakened but they are not giving up on their territorial aspirations. They will have to be beaten on the battlefield and pushed out of Ukraine. Some U.S., allied officials see a Ukraine-Russia stalemate and think winter is time for diplomacy Finally, now is NOT the time to force Ukraine into negotiations. The Russians might be weakened but they are not giving up on their territorial aspirations. They will have to be beaten on the battlefield and pushed out of Ukraine.
22/ Which is why the west should supercharge its provision of equipment (including tanks), munitions and training to Ukraine. We have a profound obligation to help the Ukrainians end this war more quickly.
23/ Other good assessments on this withdrawal include those from @RALee85 @MassDara and @NLwartracker Other good assessments on this withdrawal include those fromand
24/ There are still many uncertainties about this potential withdrawal by the Russians. And, it is a realignment of Russian forces, not a surrender. The Ukrainians have many more fights ahead of them to clear their lands of the Russian invaders. End. There are still many uncertainties about this potential withdrawal by the Russians. And, it is a realignment of Russian forces, not a surrender. The Ukrainians have many more fights ahead of them to clear their lands of the Russian invaders. End.
25/ Thank you to the following, whose images were used in this thread: @DefMon3 @War_Mapper @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @nytimes @COUPSURE Thank you to the following, whose images were used in this thread:
• • •
x CBC News Changed the Headline: [Russia orders retreat from Kherson, its only occupied regional capital in Ukraine]- to - [Russia orders retreat from Kherson, its only captured Ukrainian capital since invading]
https://t.co/Pozt28XNT3 — CBC News Edits (@CanNewsEdits) November 9, 2022
x Update 🧵November 9th
This presentation is brought to you by the employee of the month and Dr. Evil look-a-like: General Sergei Surovikin.
Visit interactive map for more details and explanations:
https://t.co/qkyqJ5tehA pic.twitter.com/AuWLLb74UA — Def Mon (@DefMon3) November 9, 2022
x 1/12 Since the announced withdrawal of 🇷🇺forces, it is time to have an in-depth look into how they want to get their troops & equipment across the river.During the past months have setup an elaborate system of ferry's crossing the Dnipro river. At least 8 ferry's have been active pic.twitter.com/1elkQjSJUx — NLwartracker (@NLwartracker) November 9, 2022
2/12 These ferry's and multiple barges have been operating continuously, first there objective was to supply troops on the west-side of the river, since last week that changed, we have seen columns of vehicles move the other direction.
3/12 In the kherson city area, there were 3 main ferry points, one is located near the Antonovskyyi rail bridge near Pridniprovsky, near the ferry loading site, mil. vehicles could be seen waiting the last couple of days. a bit further away 🇷🇺 established a rallypoint.
4/12 where multiple mil. vehicles including trucks & armored vehicles were waiting for the ferry to arrive, we think that upon arrival of the ferry they would start driving up directly on to the ferry, to avoid being a target for 🇺🇦 artillery they would take off immediately.
5/12 The ferry's from this point would cross the river into the Konka river and to any of the established unloading points as can be seen on the imagery. Some of those have been struck by HIMARS a couple of times, however it is impossible to control these point all of the time.
6/12 Two of those landing points are located in Tsjoeroepinsk, one is located at the terrain of the Dunapak factory, and the other near the city beach. These both locations have been heavily fortified last weeks, trenches have been created around the landing spots.
7/12 These landing spots seemed to be used mainly by military vehicles & troops. While the ferry's at Antonovksyi bridge seem to be transporting mainly civilian vehicles across. This seems a deliberate tactic by 🇷🇺 forces to keep 🇺🇦 forces from striking these ferry's.
8/12 Another area where ferry's are loading, is inside Kherson city, we have established at least 2 loading points, one in the centre of the city, and the other in the harbour area.The ferry's loading here most likely go to Hola Prystan harbor across the river.
9/12 Hola Prystan, has been hit hard last couple of weeks, many barges have been sunk either on route or in the harbour itself, the harbour there is very heavily defended and full of trenches. it seems to be used less frequently since end of october.
10/12 Concluded can be that probably since 1th of November, the 🇷🇺 armed forces have been working to retreat over the Dnipro river, both under the guise of civilian vehicles, and probably at night, or via fast ferry loading & unloading actions to avoid being hit by 🇺🇦 artillery.
• • •
x #stoprussia
Russia used over 400 Iranian Shahed-136 drones against Ukraine – Air Force spokesman
https://t.co/Rmfra5tqPt — Ukrinform-EN (@Ukrinform_News) November 9, 2022
x Ukraine war: Belarus is not yet committed to a closer military partnership with Russia – here's why
https://t.co/JztUHeSNLH via @ConversationUK — Farah Stockman (@fstockman) November 9, 2022
Although Lukashenko is an authoritarian ruler who managed to overcome a serious challenge to his rule in the shape of mass popular protests during and after the August 2020 presidential election, the price of defeating that challenge has been greater dependence on Moscow.
{...]
Putin’s initial attempt at a swift, decapitating attack on the Ukrainian government would have been impossible without the ability to pour Russian troops over the border between Belarus and Ukraine, only 145 miles from Kyiv. When that strategy failed, Belarus provided a safe haven for retreating Russian forces. Since then, Russia has used Belarus as a base for launching air raids and missile strikes on targets throughout northern and western Ukraine.
But for Lukashenko, agreeing to deploy Belarusian soldiers would be a huge step. Unlike the security services, the Belarusian armed forces are staffed through conscription and are likely to reflect the views of civilian society. Independent surveys of public opinion in Belarus show less than 10% of Belarusians support sending their own soldiers to fight.
Making Belarus a combatant could spark mass protests that would bring turmoil into a domestic political environment that Lukashenko seems keen to keep calm. It is also possible that Belarusian soldiers would surrender or even switch sides at the earliest opportunity.
These recent moves suggest that Lukashenko may still be seeking to build relationships, both at home and abroad, that leave him less dependent on Moscow, and that would definitely rule out deploying troops to Ukraine.
theconversation.com/...
x UN, Russian officials to meet in Geneva on Friday to discuss extending #Ukraine Black Sea grain deal and efforts to smooth Russian food, fertilizers shipments. Deal allowing Black Sea exports could end Nov. 19 if Russia or Ukraine object to extension.
https://t.co/LWdxmqgCOq — Michelle Nichols (@michellenichols) November 9, 2022
[END]
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