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Michigan Senate goes Dem for first time in 4 decades with the aid of redistricting, abortion [1]
['Jordyn Hermani', 'Jhermani Mlive.Com']
Date: 2022-11-09 19:44:44.072000+00:00
For the first time in four decades, Democrats are waking up to a state in which their party controls the House and Senate – a feat not done since the early 1980s.
And while the dust is still settling on concrete race results, many in the hours since party control has been announced believe the results are owed to two key factors: abortion access and redistricting.
Though race results as projected by the Associated Press are still rolling in, Democrats across the state early Wednesday, Nov. 9, declared victory in both the legislature’s upper and lower chamber after claiming wins in several key House and Senate races.
Of the 10 races between the chambers which MLive identified as being crucial to determine which party controls the legislature, Democrats came away with seven of them.
That gives the Democratic Party an anticipated 20-18 edge in the Senate and a 56-54 majority in the House, making the newly reelected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer the first Democratic governor to serve with a legislature of the same make up in roughly four decades.
RELATED: Whitmer declares victory: ‘Michigan’s future is bright’
Co-Chair of the Michigan Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, state Sen. Jeremy Moss of Southfield, described the wins as being an affirmation “that it is time for a new majority” in Michigan.
“We ran a campaign on the issues that actually matter to the people in our state: reducing gun violence, protecting bodily autonomy, and securing voting rights for all Michigander,” Moss said in a statement. “Republicans instead doubled down on homophobia and transphobia and found their out-of-whack priorities soundly rejected by voters. This majority is a victory for everyone.”
The Democratic majority in the Senate is largely owed to crucial wins in mid-Michigan and downriver, parts of the state which the party has long identified as must-win areas to usurp Republican control.
A tie over chamber control emerged early Wednesday when state Rep. Kevin Hertel, D-St. Clair Shores, eked out a win over state Rep. Pamela Hornberger, R-Chesterfield, by roughly 400 votes; that tie was then broken later in the morning around 5 a.m. with the win of Democrat Veronica Klinefeld in the 11th Senate district, who dashed state Sen. Mike MacDonald’s reelection hopes with 52.6% of the vote to his 47.4%.
Another large get for democrats came when Bay City Commissioner Kristen McDonald Rivet upset hopes that state Rep. Annette Glenn, R-Midland, would go on to represent the mid-Michigan area. McDonald Rivet possessed a wide margin over Glenn, taking a roughly seven-point lead over the lawmaker, at the time the race was conceded in her favor.
And while that’s not to say Republicans failed to garner any upsets – most notably Sen. Jon Bumstead, R-North Muskegon, beating state Rep. Terry Sabo, D-Muskegon, for the 32nd Senate district and Republican Michael Webber ousting state Rep. Padma Kuppa, D-Troy, in the 9th Senate district – their gains weren’t in as many pivotal areas.
RELATED: Michigan SOS Jocelyn Benson declares victory in reelection bid
Matt Grossman, the director of Michigan’s State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said the most important context to consider when reviewing race results in the sheer impact redistricting and abortion had in Michigan.
“If Whitmer wins by eight points statewide, it really doesn’t require much more than most people who voted for Whitmer supporting their state House and state Senate candidates ... Republicans did come home to their candidates, but there seemed to be a much more lasting effect of the summer mobilization against the Supreme Court decision (to overturn Roe v. Wade),” Grossman said.
Despite the fact that Republicans tried to message hard against the passage of Proposal 3, which will enshrine abortion protections in Michigan’s constitution, and attempted to whip up fervor surrounding inflation and the economy – those talking points didn’t much pan out considering the severity of reproductive health care being on the ballot for Democrats (and even some Republicans or independent voters).
Asked if this meant to expect a more competitive, constantly fluctuating legislature under the newly redistricted maps, Grossman acknowledged that the change now made it so that “whoever gets more votes statewide is much more likely to control each chamber.”
“All Republicans have to do to win back control of either chamber is to win more votes statewide – and they could certainly do that in 2024,” he said. “Historically, there’s no relationship between the performance of the president’s party in the midterm and then their performance two years later. So, we’re kind of at a blank slate for for the next election.”
RELATED: Dana Nessel re-elected Michigan attorney general, AP projects Wednesday morning
The story is much the same in the House, which now possesses a narrow Democratic majority for the first time in a decade.
Like what Grossman notes, House Minority Leader Donna Lasinski, D-Scio Township, said people were motivated by the overturning of Roe v. Wade when turning out to vote for her party’s candidates. She also credited the passage of Proposal 2 of 2018, which allowed for no-reason absentee, for increased Democratic turn out as well.
“What we knew was with a level playing field, competing on our values and policy ideas, the state would elect Democrats and that’s what exactly what we’ve seen,” Lasinski said. “A level playing field and a clean sweep.”
Democrats made gains in several key areas throughout the state including: Rep. Carol Glanville, D-Walker, defending her seat in the 84th House district; Rep. Rachel Hood, D-Grand Rapids, keeping her position in the 81st House district; Democrat Joey Andrews toppling Republican Kevin Whiteford for control of the hotly contested 38th House district along the Lake Michigan shoreline, and; Democrat Betsy Coffia ousting Rep. Jack O’Malley, R-Lake Ann, in what was considered a hotly contested 103rd House district race.
Downriver voters also delivered some notable wins for House Democrats as well, though it was Democrat Denise Mentzer’s victory in the 61st House district over Republican Mike Aiello which sealed the deal for party control early Wednesday morning.
“Michigan is a purple, center-left state that had a gerrymandering problem for years. Decades,” said Josh Pugh, senior director of public affairs for public relations firm Truscott Rossman. “And you saw that in election after election as Democrats won the popular vote that that didn’t translate into down-ballot wins because of these rigged lines.”
Fair lines, he went on to say, which “accurately translate the will of the voters” into a win for the political party which wins the most votes “is a game changer.”
“And one that probably wasn’t adequately appreciated by folks who follow these races until last night,” Pugh said.
RELATED: Incumbent justices win reelection to Michigan Supreme Court
With Democrats now in the proverbial drivers seat for at least the next two years at the legislative, gubernatorial, secretary of state, attorney general and state Supreme Court level, there’s not a lot stopping them from laying the groundwork to get done what is inevitably a laundry list four decades in the making.
But to assume this now means Democrats will carte blanche begin making changes at the state level without any input from Republican counterparts is an error said Jarrett Skorup, senior director of marketing and communications for the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.
Due to the razor thin margins of victory, it will be incumbent upon Democrats to still work across the aisle to achieve forward progress on legislative issues. The party can only lose one vote in the Senate – with Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist serving as the Democratic tie-breaker, given he also presides over the upper chamber – and one in the House, lest in the lower chamber they end up in a 55-55 tied vote.
Yet, when asked what Democrats would even hit the ground running on that didn’t already inherently have some level of bipartisan support, such as raising Michigan’s Earned Income Tax Credit or cutting taxes for residents, Skorup was at something of a loss.
He offered potential changes to gun control or right to work laws in Michigan as something which could engender strife between the parties, but given that the other hot topic of the last two years – reproductive rights – was settled by the passage of Proposal 3 earlier this morning, Democrats could be entering into a legislature with an appetite to move bipartisan-backed reforms.
“Republicans controlled the legislature for more than a decade – they had eight years of full Republican control – and in that environment, there’s still a lot of things that very conservative members of their caucus did not get,” he said. “And, I suspect there’s a lot of things that very liberal members really want that they’re just not able to get because you can only lose one vote, right?”
More from MLive
Here’s some key takeaways from Michigan’s midterm election
Michigan’s 2022 midterm election set record in voter turnout
Results split on 32 local Michigan marijuana ballot proposals
Democrats likely to cement majority on Michigan Board of Education
Michigan election ran smoothly despite some long lines, Benson says
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