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I run Election Forecast at RacetotheWH. Here's why Dems Still Could Win the House [1]
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Date: 2022-11-08
Map of when polls close - Eastern Time
My name is Logan Phillips, and I run RacetotheWH, which breaks down politics using data and features election forecasts and polling averages. In case you don’t know me, I hope you’ll value this take, because our forecasts were one of the most accurate in the nation in 2020, and we were able to call every Senate primary correctly that we predicted in 2022.
The coverage and most other election forecasts largely suggest Democrat’s goose is cooked in the House of Representatives. While I do think that Republicans are favorites I think Democrats have a far higher than typical chance of winning an upset than for a normal midterm. We have them pinned at a 31.9% chance, a touch lower then the average NBA player’s chance of making a 3-point shot. If you aren’t surprised to see an NBA player make a 3, don’t be shocked if Dems keep their majority.
If Democrats outperform the projections in my House model by 1.56%, they would be on track for 217.6 House Seats. They need 218 to win a majority.
That’s a pretty normal polling error. While there is plenty of reason to anticipate a polling error in favor of Republicans, keep in mind polling underestimated Dems in the special elections by an average of over 7%. It’s at least a real possibility that pollsters overcompensate for the 2020 debacle.
Tonight, we will be running a live election forecast for the Senate and the House that will update with every race call. It should be clean and easy to follow — our site’s purpose is to make democracy easier to understand. I hope you’ll join us
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