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Red Mirage or Red Wave? This Election's Wild Cards. [1]
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Date: 2022-11-07
One way or the other, it seems that the mainstream news media is bound and determined to ensure that “Red” is the major part of its headlines after Tuesday’s election results start to become clearer.
The only question in my mind is whether they will call end up calling it a “Red Wave” whereby Republicans win a resounding victory nationally, or if it will be a “Red Mirage” where it had looked, even up through Tuesday night, as if Democrats were destined for a shellacking. but the results end up being far different.
So...what are the “wild cards” that will determine whether this will be a Republican wave election of more of a purple one?
The wild cards include:
a) Will pro-choice voters turn out in the same numbers as they did in this summer’s special elections, upending the polls?
b) Will all of those Republican polls at the eleventh hour of the campaign turn out to be red herrings, designed more to suppress Democratic turnout, or were they actually picking up on some kind of a late trend favoring Republicans?
c) Will turnout by rural voters be more tepid compared to the suburbs and urban areas, as happened in this summer’s special elections?
d) Will the huge, late infusion of cash by billionaires and dark money groups help fuel a red wave, as intended?
e) Will young voters show up in higher numbers than expected, mirroring the fact that they’ve been registering to vote in larger numbers?
Any one of those factors could well end up impacting the outcome of Tuesday’s elections. But, together, they could determine whether it’s a Republican rout or a purple wave. (Though possible, it seems highly unlikely to be a blue wave.)
Pollsters have based their polling models on expected turnout by the above and other demographic groups. If turn out by key Democratic constituencies exceeds expectations, or if rural voters continue to lag suburban and urban voter enthusiasm, it could make a difference.
It’s quite possible that we won’t know who will control the Senate...or even the House...by Wednesday morning. A lot of key Senate races appear to be extremely close, according to the latest polling. And there are likely to be a fair number of extremely close House races, too.
www.politico.com/…
truthout.org/…
www.politico.com/...
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