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Democrats Have Regained Momentum At The Perfect Time [1]

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Date: 2022-11-07

Momentum

Elections often hinge on which candidates peak at the right time. Democrats had a nice surge in August following some legislative wins for Biden and the Democrats. That was long ago in the election cycle world.

One issue that never faded, although Republicans and pundits seem to think it did, is abortion rights. If Republicans have convinced enough people that inflation and crime are the Democrats’s fault then it could be a long day tomorrow for Democrats. It could also be that a number of voters are inclined to remember that economic events happen no matter which party is in power. I will assume that not everyone who has it as a priority going in to Election Day is ignorant of this. Both crime and not having enough money to live are reliable drivers for voters and Republicans know how to squeeze those issues no doubt. They have been pounding away on these two issues for many months in battleground states, yet the limbic brain can only take so much abuse before that level of fear messaging and negativity can begin to have diminished returns.

So now it comes back to who has more issues that the widest swath of voters care about. The Democrats have two that are polling high, a women’s right to choose and losing this thing we call Democracy. Those have never been on any ballot agenda before in any election which is why I think the conventual wisdom of the pundits who look to history and the poll aggregates thinking they can determine what happens on Tuesday is a flawed metric to use. A recent NBC poll showed a spike in Democratic voter’s enthusiasm. As I mentioned in an earlier piece, what happened to Paul Pelosi had repercussions immediately and I believe they have survived the rotating news cycles. It seems to me that a Republican surge has fizzled and it started in the days following that attack. This is not to say that it’s enough to change the trajectory of Republicans flipping the house. I do think anything less than a fifteen seat exchange in that chamber is a small victory for Democrats. This means that in 2024 the task of getting them back becomes easier.

The last aggregate of polls and some that showed up this weekend showed a return to some of the margins that should be good news for Democrats. By good, I mean avoiding a disaster of losing both chambers of Congress. Also some Governor races have moved beyond the margin for error. I am not just looking at the polls. I feel the zeitgeist too. This includes looking at the faces and body language of operatives in the Democratic Party. They seem energized compared to two weeks ago when glum was the prevailing mood coming from the MSNBC talent lineup and their guests. They know something it seems. So I feel comfortable in my prediction that the Senate will stay in the Democrat’s hands and if Nevada holds they will gain a seat in Pennsylvania. North Carolina could be the surprise pick up.

It will be a stressful day because the mail in ballots in Pennsylvania won’t be counted for days just like in 2020. Arizona and Georgia have put in new voter laws which may slow down the process of counting in those states. Republicans are filling lawsuits in all the battleground states that can also serve to gum up the works with challenges. It won’t be pretty but democracy, though wounded, will survive this particular election’s onslaught from those who think voting is a bad way to find leaders.



Wandering In The Desert is a business and communications consultant.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/7/2134370/-Democrats-Have-Regained-The-Momentum-At-The-Perfect-Time

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