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Some Pre-election Thoughts Part 2 [1]

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Date: 2022-11-06

Some thoughts before election day. I know some have already cast their ballots, and if you did. Good for you. Suppose you voted for the first time. Even better. How did it feel about participating in democracy for the first time? Great. Now here is more food for thought.

Something is going on that any media company is not reporting. 2016 was 100 years ago in political years. 2018 was 50 years ago using the same logic. Yes, historically, the party in power loses seats in congress. But who is the party in power, the Democrat's narrow majority in congress or the GOP-controlled supreme court?

Overall, there are 2.6 million more Democrats than early voted in 2018 when Democrats gained control of congress. At the same time, Republicans fell by 1.1 Million. What does that tell us? Young Democrats count for 63% of voters in their age group. On top of that, Michael Moore warned us that take Trump seriously and told MSNBC that a blue wave is coming. Also, in Red Wave years, the money goes to Republicans. In almost every competitive race, the democrat has the financial advantage. This is according to filings by the FEC. Ben Wikler in Wisconsin has perfected the GOP Financial plan for raising money and spending. So they have two out of three signs for a good Democratic year. One problem. Polls.

Let's rewind a hundred years to 2016. Nate Silver’s Five Thirty-Eight gave Hillary Clinton an 83% Chance of carrying the stats ten electoral votes. 83% That is basically in the bag. So much that Hillary did not even come to Wisconsin. Not even the Democratic powerhouses of Milwaukee or Madison. How did that turn out? Also, in 2016. There were warning signs that some trouble was amidst. The Wisconsin-Michigan Primary. In 2016 Bernie Sanders won Wisconsin by 56% and eeked out a victory in Michigan. It is also important to point out that Sanders won 71 counties in Wisconsin. For my out-of-state readers, there are 72 counties in the state.

The big takeaway is polls don't vote. People vote. The Kansas abortion referendum had no at 47% and Yes at 43%. No one thought it would stay above 60% the entire night. Why because Polls don’t vote.

Lets review who came to Wisconsin after the primary for GOTV efforts. On the Democratic side, there has been Elizabeth Warren in Madison. Warren endorsed Barnes early in the primary. Another early endorser of Barnes New Jersey’s Corey Booker was in Racine for a GOTV effort. Mayor Pete came to rally young voters in Milwaukee and former President Obama, who gave an impassioned case for Mandela Barnes. Recently, Senator Sanders, who won the 2016 primary, visited Madison, Lacrosse, and Oshkosh to hold early vote drives for candidates up and down the ticket. Lastly, earlier this year. Neighboring Senator Amy Klobuchar was in Glenwood City in St. Croix County. Now, who has come for Ron Johnson and Tim Michels? So far, the only big name has been Rick Scott. Trump was here before the primary to stir up a bunch of crap between Kleefisch and Michels. He also made life difficult for Robin Vos, who almost lost his primary.

So, with this in mind. Please remember. Polls don’t vote. People do. So go vote and bring some friends with you. Ignore the media and the ads. Look at the data. FEC is a good indicator of who is winning the financial war. Campaign finance in Wisconsin is a good indicator of who is winning in Wisconsin.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134055/-Some-Pre-election-Thoughts-Part-2

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