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Kansas Early Returns Could Be Mid-Terms Tell [1]

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Date: 2022-11-06

Kansas Map

Kansas — Bell-Wether Indicators for the Mid-Terms?

Because of the rapid release of its urban voting results, and ready comparisons to recent elections, Kansas might be a good reference Tuesday night as to which party will control the next Congress. Also, broader inferences might be apt given that the Kansas City metro area is considered a good test market for the country as a whole. Seehttps://smallbusiness.com/product-development/best-u-s-cities-to-test-market-a-national-product/ and includes two of these Kansas urban counties.

Five counties in the Kansas hold 55% of our 1,957,576 registered voters, 68% of the registered Democrats, 46% of the Republicans, and 57% of our Unaffiliateds. [See figures for Johnson (KC Suburbs), Sedgwick (Wichita), Shawnee (Topeka), Wyandotte(Kansas City, KS) and Douglas (Lawrence) at https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-09-01-Voter-Registration-Numbers-by-County.pdf ]. I provide a reference table below to the historic voting patterns one can use to compare with results coming in on Tuesday night. The table has statistics from the last three elections.

First, in August 2022 Kansans rejected an anti-abortion amendment 59% to 41%. 942,851 of 1,929,972 registered voters (49%) participated. There were 557,837 "NO" votes (59.16%) and 385,014 "YES" votes (41.84%). https://www.kssos.org/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Official-Vote-Totals.pdf page 14. Of the 942,851 people voting, 267,554 were registered Democrats (28%) and 476,338 were Republicans (47%). 25% of those voting did not participate in the party primaries for the US Senate. The 49% voter participation was a record for recent primary elections. Data is readily available for the 4 largest counties. Those counties comprised 53% of the total state vote.

The second dataset is the last US Senate race in Kansas in 2020 that saw Roger Marshall (R) prevail by 12% over Barbara Bollier (D), a moderate Republican who switched parties several years prior to the election. An independent candidate Jason Buckley siphoned votes from each party candidate. (This was a substantial narrowing of the margin seen in the US Senate race in 2016 where the spread was 30% - it was closer to the 11% US Senate race spread in 2014.). The 2020 Presidential year race had a 71% turnout comprised of 28% Democrats, 51% Republicans and 21% Independents (with nearly 60% early and mail-in votes).

Finally, included is a comparison to the 2018 Kansas Mid-terms which had a 57.5% turnout comprised of 28% Democrats, 52% Republicans and 20% Independents (with 39% early and mail-in votes). The Democrat Laura Kelly won 48% of the vote and beat her Republican rival Kris Kobach by 5%. Again, Independents siphoned votes from the major party candidates. Data on the 5 largest counties is not available on the web so is not included (but can be obtained on request to the KS Secretary of State).



Top 5 Urban Counties August 2022 Primary Registration and Abortion Voting Statistics Registered Voters Turnout Total Yes Votes Total NO Votes Johnson 456,342 259,713 79,798 179,915 Countywide % 56.91% 30.73% 69.27% Sedgwick 329,923 147,728 61,843 85,885 Countywide % 44.78% 41.86% 58.14% Shawnee 116,155 64,399 21,717 42,682 Countywide % 55.44% 33.72% 66.28% Wyandotte 91,116 32,142 8,275 23,867 Countywide % 35.28% 25.75% 74.25% Douglas 81,143 NA NA Countywide % Total 5 Urban Counties 1,074,679 503,984 171,634 332,352 4 Urban County % 46.90% 34.06% 65.94% % 4 Urban to Statewide 55.68% 53.45% Statewide 1,929,972 942,851 385,014 557,837 Statewide Turnout 48.85% Top 5 Urban Counties 2020 US Senate Statistics Registered Voters Turnout Bollier (D) Buckley (I) Marshall (R) Johnson 438,403 347,336 179,231 16,037 152,068 Countywide % 79.23% 51.60% 4.62% 43.78% Sedgwick 325,513 222,177 96,205 10,496 115,476 Countywide % 68.25% 43.30% 4.72% 51.97% Shawnee 113,492 85,557 43,185 4,510 37,862 Countywide % 75.39% 50.48% 5.27% 44.25% Wyandotte 88,585 56,397 35,865 3,721 16,811 Countywide % 63.66% 63.59% 6.60% 29.81% Douglas 78,093 Countywide % Total 5 Urban Counties 1,044,086 711,471 354,488 34,764 322,219 4 Urban County % 68.14% 49.82% 4.89% 45.29% % 4 Urban to Statewide 62.02% 50.93% 44.26% Statewide 1,937,455 1,367,755 571,530 68,263 727,962 Final Statewide Percentage 70.60% 41.79% 4.99% 53.22% Top 5 Urban Counties 2018 US Governer's Race Registered Voters TURNOUT Kelly (D) Others (I) Kobach (R) Johnson 272530 Countywide % Sedgwick 170063 Countywide % Shawnee 71007 Countywide % Wyandotte 42511 Countywide % Douglas 49794 Countywide % Total 5 Urban Counties 605905 5 Urban County % % 5 Urban to Statewide 57.13% Statewide 1,841,776 1,060,595 506,509 95,083 453,030 48.03% 9.02% 42.96%

Bottom line, if you see turnout in the 5 urban counties mentioned exceeding the last mid-term election in 2018 and the Democratic candidates are doing significantly better in the 4 urban counties we have ready statistics for than Kelly and Bollier did in their last races, say by 10 to 15% better, then there’s a good tell that the Democrats will retain control of Congress. Heck, if that’s the case, the Kansas Senate seat might even turn blue.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134013/-Kansas-Early-Returns-Could-Be-Mid-Terms-Tell

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