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Don't buy into the gloom and doom. The most reliable pollsters suggest a pretty decent outcome [1]

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Date: 2022-11-06

While I have come to not put much confidence in the polls these day, when I look at only the most reliable and respected pollsters, the ones who get an A+ or A rating from 538.com, things look much better than what the mainstream media has been saying. Since there are no such polls for NH Senate, I also include in the table the two recent New Hampshire polls from the most reliable and non-partisan pollsters (Emerson and UMass-Lowell).

Using 538.com’s data on the polling organizations, and factoring in each pollster’s “historical bias”, here are polls for the “close” races that I give some credence to:

Race Pollster Dates Result With Pollster Bias

AZ Senate Marist 10/31-11/2 Kelly +4 Kelly + 3.9

AZ Senate Fox 10/26-10/30 Kelly +2 Kelly + 0.2

AZ Senate Siena 10/24-10/26 Kelly +6 Kelly + 6.5

AZ Governor Marist 10/31-11/2 Hobbs +1 Hobbs +0.9

AZ Governor Fox 10/26-10/30 Hobbs -1 Hobbs -2.8

AZ Governor Siena 10/24-10/26 Hobbs 0 Hobbs +0.5

CA House-49 Survey USA 10/27-10/31 Levin +6 Levin +6

GA Senate Marist 10/31-11 /2 Warnock +4 Warnock +3.9

GA Senate Fox 10/26-10/30 Warnock +1 Warnock -0.8

GA Senate Siena 10/24-10/27 Warnock +3 Warnock +3.5

ME House-2 Survey USA 10/30-11 /2 Golden +3 Golden +3

MN House-2 Survey USA 10/13-10/16 Craig +1 Craig +1

NH Senate Emerson 10/30-11/1 Hassan +4 Hassan +3.2

NH Senate UMass Lowell 10/14-10/25 Hassan +10 Hassan +9.2

NV Senate Siena 10/24-10/27 Cortez-Masto 0 Cortez-Masto +0.5

NV Governor Siena 10/19-10/24 Sisolak -4 Sisolak -3.5

NV House -1 Siena 10/19-10/21 Titus 0 Titus +0.5

NM House -2 Research&Polling 10/20-10/27 Vasquez +2 Vasquez +2.6

NM House -2 Siena 10/20-10/24 Vasquez +1 Vasquez +1.5

NY House -19 Siena 10/27-11/1 Riley +5 Riley +5.5

NY House -22 Siena 10/27-11/1 Conole +4 Conole +4.5

NC Senate Marist 10/17-10/20 Beasley 0 Beasley -0.1

NC Senate Survey USA 9/28-10/2 Beasley -1 Beasley -1

NC House -13 Survey USA 10/21-10/24 Nickel +1 Nickel +1

OH Senate Marist 10/17-10/20 Ryan -1 Ryan -1.1

OH Senate Siena 10/14-10/19 Ryan +1 Ryan +1.5

PA Senate Marist 10/31- 11 /2 Fetterman +6 Fetterman +5.9

PA Senate Fox 10/26-11/30 Fetterman +3 Fetterman +1.2

PA Senate Siena 10/24-10/26 Fetterman +5 Fetterman +5.5

PA House-8 Siena 10/19-10/20 Cartwright +6 Cartwright +6.5

WI Senate Siena 10/27-10/31 Barnes -2 Barnes -1.5

WI Senate Fox 10/26-10/30 Barnes -3 Barnes -4.8

WI Governor Siena 10/27-10/31 Evers +2 Evers +2.5

WI Governor Fox 10/26-10/30 Evers -1 Evers -2.8

So, as far as the Senate goes, if we take the average of the listed polls for each race, we have:

AZ — Kelly: +3.87

GA — Warnock: +2.2

NH — Hassan: +6.2

NV — Masto-Cortez +0.5

NC — Beasley -0.55

OH — Ryan +0.2

PA — Fetterman +4.2

WI — Barnes -3.15

If we win NH (the two ), then to retain the Senate, we must win at least 4 of the 7 states listed. To get the 52 seats needed to change the filibuster, we need 6 of the 8.

As far as the House goes, it is still quite possible to retain control, but we need to win the vast majority of the races that are considered close.

Keep volunteering and donating as you are able.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/6/2134029/-Don-t-buy-into-the-gloom-and-doom-The-most-reliable-pollsters-suggest-a-pretty-decent-outcome

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