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Ukraine Invasion Day 256: forced Kherson evacuation and Russian friendly fire casualties [1]
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Date: 2022-11-05
With millions without power, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy accuses Russia of ‘energy terrorism’ as rolling blackouts begin.
“Russia’s campaign to systematically degrade Ukraine’s energy infrastructure creates an urgent humanitarian challenge, but it must not distract from…support to Ukraine’s armed forces.” A fine report on #Ukraine from @RUSI_org
https://t.co/nRye1VC1zM
Old-fashioned airpower has kept a low profile in the conflict in Ukraine, eclipsed by kamikaze drones and cruise missiles used by both sides. When Russia appeared to step up its activity inside Ukrainian airspace in Sept, its losses increased sharply.
https://t.co/a1oFRuLiY0
x Rolling blackouts will be put in place in seven regions across Ukraine to keep the power grid from failing, Ukraine’s national energy utility said on Saturday.
https://t.co/uzPn84a22G — New York Times World (@nytimesworld) November 6, 2022
KYIV, Ukraine — Rolling blackouts will be put in place in seven regions across Ukraine to keep the power grid from failing, Ukraine’s national energy utility said on Saturday, after repeated waves of Russian aerial bombardment targeting infrastructure have debilitated the system and left it in danger of collapse.
Given that electricity is necessary for keeping most essential services running, local governments have been stepping up efforts to prepare for any extended loss of power, even as Ukraine’s allies vowed in recent days to speed up the delivery of air defense systems to help ward off further Russian strikes on Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
Kyiv, the capital, is also preparing more than 1,000 heating shelters that can double as bunkers for civilians. Emergency workers there are preparing for all scenarios, including a complete blackout that would prompt an evacuation of the capital, where some three million people live, Roman Tkachuk, the director of security for the city’s government, said in an interview.
“We understand that if Russia continues such attacks, we may lose our entire electricity system,” he said on Friday. “That’s why we are preparing for a cold winter.”
More than 40 percent of the nation’s critical energy infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed by Russian strikes, Ukrainian officials say. Utility officials have warned that replacement equipment will cost hundreds of millions of dollars and is hard to source.
In Kyiv, most of the heating shelters are being set up in educational facilities, the exact locations of which the authorities asked not be revealed, since they fear making them an easy target.
www.nytimes.com/…
x #30DayMapChallenge Day 5 - Ukraine 🇺🇦
Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear energy. In March, Russian armed forces took control of the Zaporizhzhia plant
This animated map shows daily conflict events in relation to nuclear power plant location (minus decommissioned Chernobyl) pic.twitter.com/6hl83GaKUU — Alicia Oberholzer (@aliciaoberhol) November 5, 2022
flotsam @researchremora Day 5 of #30DayMapChallenge: Ukraine. Here's a population density map of Ukraine. #rayshader adventures, an #rstats tale
x Ukraine’s military and Western analysts say Russian forces are making fruitless attacks in eastern Ukraine and taking heavy losses after a hastily arranged draft added over 300,000 troops. | via @nytimes
https://t.co/NhAbhP9a8m — The Japan Times (@japantimes) November 6, 2022
Here’s what we know:
Emergency workers in Kyiv, the capital, are also considering scenarios including a total blackout that would prompt an evacuation.
www.nytimes.com/…
The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart the Donetsk offensive but will likely still fail to achieve operationally significant gains. Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported on November 4 that Russian forces have tripled the intensity of hostilities in certain sections of the front with up to 80 daily assaults.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are currently focusing those offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and western Donetsk Oblast.[2] The Ukrainian Eastern Group of troops spokesperson Serhiy Cherevatyi stated on November 4 that Russian forces are likely trying to seize Bakhmut and Soledar in Donetsk Oblast so that Russia can declare some type of success by announcing the “liberation” of the Donbas (even though those gains would not give Russia control over the entire region).[3] Cherevatyi also noted the presence of mobilized men in the Bakhmut direction, an area that should not in principle see many mobilized personnel given the extensive presence in this area of Wagner Group and proxy units that should not be receiving large numbers of Russian reservists.[4] ISW previously assessed that Russian forces prematurely impaled an insufficient concentration of mobilized personnel on offensive pushes near Bakhmut and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast on November 3.[5] The apparent intensification of Russian assaults in Donetsk Oblast likely indicates that Russian forces are repeating that mistake throughout this section of the front. The increased quantity of personnel at frontline positions may allow Russian forces to achieve some gains in Donetsk Oblast, but poor training, logistics, and command will continue to prevent Russian forces from making operationally significant gains that would materially affect the course or outcome of the war.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive actions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on November 5. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), reported that Ukrainian troops conducted an assault in the direction of Kuzemivka, 13km northwest of Svatove.[16] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops crossed the Zherebets River west of Svatove and are probing Russian positions along the Kuzemivka-Kolomyichykha line.[17] Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian troops conducting strikes on Russian armored vehicles about 30km northwest of Svatove, indicating that Russian troops maintain positions in the Yahidne-Orlianka area.[18] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces re regrouping in this area after a failed assault on Yahidne.[19] A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attempted attacks towards Kreminna.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bilohorivka, 10km south of Kreminna.[21] Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike on Russian positions in Svatove and Kreminna and shelled Russian positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[22]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces are setting conditions for a controlled withdrawal in northwestern Kherson Oblast, likely to avoid a disorderly rout from the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River. Russian forces will likely need to engage in a fighting withdrawal to prevent Ukrainian forces from chasing them onto the left (eastern) bank. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command corrected social media reports from November 3 regarding the destruction of civilian boats and piers along the Dnipro River.[6] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces are purposefully destroying civilian vessels and are restricting civilian use of watercraft and access to the shore. The corrected story likely corresponds with the reports of Russian forces preparing defensive positions on the left bank and the withdrawal of certain elements and suggests that Russian forces are eliminating ways for Ukrainian forces to chase them across the river during or after a withdrawal. Local Ukrainian sources also shared geolocated footage that reportedly showed the aftermath of the recent Russian destruction of a pedestrian bridge over the Inhulets River in Snihurivka (about 60km east of Mykolaiv City), which may also indicate Russian efforts to slow Ukrainian advances amidst a Russian withdrawal.[7]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Russian forces continued to set up defensive positions along the Dnipro River on November 5. Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Southern Forces, Nataliya Humenyuk, stated that Russian forces are building strong defensive positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River with firing positions that they will use to target Ukrainian forces on the right (western) bank.[23] Humenyuk added that Russian forces are still operating on the right bank. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Russian forces are still conducting maneuvers and setting up defensive lines on the right bank, while simultaneously mining the left bank and evacuating civilians at least 15km away from the coast.[24] The Ukrainian Resistance Center specified that Russian forces are preparing Nova Kakhovka (on the left bank) for battle by mining underground communications lines such as sewers.[25] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reiterated that Russian forces are continuing to destroy civilian watercraft and have already destroyed over 50 vessels.[26] ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces are likely attempting to prevent Ukrainian forces from chasing them to the left bank following a fighting withdrawal.[27]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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