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Kitchen Table Kibitzing, Nov. 5, 2022: Preparing for Calamity [1]

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Date: 2022-11-05

As explained in LiveScience:

A "planet killer" asteroid that is hiding in the glare of the sun has finally been detected, and the giant space rock could smash into Earth one day. The 0.9-mile-wide (1.5 kilometers) "potentially hazardous" asteroid, named 2022 AP7, is one of several large space rocks that astronomers recently discovered near the orbits of Earth and Venus . Currently, 2022 AP7 crosses Earth's orbit while our planet is on the opposite side of the sun , but scientists say that over thousands of years, the asteroid and Earth will slowly start to cross the same point closer together, thereby increasing the odds of a catastrophic impact.

According to the New York Times:

Astronomers on the hunt for modestly sized asteroids that could vaporize a city or bulkier beasts that could sterilize Earth’s surface have spotted a new potential threat. But there’s no immediate need to worry — it’ll be many generations until it may pose a danger to our planet.

The likelihood of an impact by 2022 AP7 with the earth within the foreseeable future is very low:

“There is an extremely low probability of an impact in the foreseeable future,” said Tracy Becker, a planetary scientist at the Southwest Research Institute who was not involved with the study. But the gravitational pull of objects around the solar system — including our own planet — ensures that Earth-crossing asteroids don’t dance the same way forever. The asteroid 2022 AP7 is no exception. “Over time, this asteroid will get brighter and brighter in the sky as it starts crossing Earth’s orbit closer and closer to where the Earth actually is,” Dr. Sheppard said. It’s possible that “way down the line, in the next few thousand years, it could turn into a problem for our descendants,” said Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer at Queen’s University Belfast who was not involved with the study.

The fact that 2022 AP7 is so large does have some scientists concerned, including Scott Shepherd, an astronomer at the Carnegie Institute for Science in Washington D.C., who co-authored the study that spotted 2022 AP7.

“This is what we call a planet killer,” Dr. Sheppard said. “If this one hits the Earth, it would cause planetwide destruction. It would be very bad for life as we know it.”

“Very bad” is probably an understatement. But, hey, if you really want to worry, compare the coverage in the Hindustan Times:

Recently, scientists made a discovery that can have terrifying consequences for us. A group of researchers found three new asteroids, one of them labeled ‘potentially hazardous', orbiting in the space between Earth and Venus. While NASA has been tracking more than 20,000 near-Earth objects (NEOs), it was not known that asteroids existed in this particular space. And the main reason behind it was the Sun and its glare. These asteroids have the potential to catch us blindsided and strike us when we don't expect them. And if that happens, even the DART planetary defense system would not be able to save us. The study regarding this discovery has been published in The Astronomical Journal and has used the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) mounted on the V�ctor M. Blanco 4-meter Telescope at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile to find this scary space rock. The largest among the three asteroids has been named 2022 AP7. The concern with this particular asteroid is that it is 1.5 kilometers wide. And this large size has made it a potential planet-killer for us. If it struck the Earth, it could spell the end of human civilization.

I suppose one lesson from this is, depending on which news source you happen believe, we’re either doomed, or we’re not. But it’s probably best to wait until the event actually occurs before making any such assessments. Because if we truly are doomed, then there’s nothing that can be done. But if we’re not, then there’s still time to prepare and plan for contingencies.

On that note, I’ll be watching the Phillies game tonight. Hopefully they’ll be able to get some more hits this time.

If not, they’re doomed.

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