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Highlights from The Downballot: Jeff Singer on key races to watch next Tuesday [1]
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Date: 2022-11-03
Going into election night, there are a whole host of seats in the House that Democrats currently control, but that, more or less, the national party has essentially given up on. These are seats where the polling looks bad; they think there is very little chance of holding these seats; or these seats were so aggressively gerrymandered in the first place by Republicans that Democrats just really haven't bothered. Nir issued a somber reminder: “We have to be really clear-eyed about the situation that Democrats are facing here [at the national level]. The party only has a five-seat majority in the House.” He continued:
Obviously, these races all have candidates who are all trying very hard, and in some cases there is even still outside support from other groups. But when we're looking at the DCCC and the House Majority PAC, the biggest democratic super PAC, they have said we have to focus on different targets. And there are about 10 of these seats. So, that means that Democrats really start off almost in a minus five hole because they have the five-seat edge right now, but if there are 10 seats that they are preparing to lose on Tuesday, then that means Democrats would have to win at least about five seats, flipping them from Republicans in order to hold the House.
Yet, not all of these "gimmies" are actually a given for Republicans, Nir argued. In particular, a seat in Florida, the 13th District, is one that Republicans gerrymandered, but where there actually is reason to think that maybe this one isn't over. Singer took a deeper dive into what is happening there:
Yeah. So, this is around the St. Petersburg area. It was represented by Democrat Charlie Crist, but he resigned over the summer to concentrate on his uphill battle for Governor. The guy, Crist, is trying to unseat Ron DeSantis. He really bullied the republican legislature to adopt the most aggressive gerrymander possible and we saw that here in the 13th. Under the lines that were used over the last few years, Biden won the seat, 51 to 47%, but under the ones that'll be used on Tuesday, Trump took it 53 to 46. So, not very good territory. And for a long time, it's looked like a pretty easy win for the 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna, who is a very far right Trump acolyte. But the Democrat, former defense department official, Eric Lynn, he's been running an aggressive campaign of his own, and he's got some help. While major democratic groups have stayed away, there's a Super PAC that happens to be funded by Lynn's cousin that has poured millions in here. Polling's very limited, but there was a recent independent poll that showed Paulina Luna up by all of one point. So, you can never ever base your read on a race on just one poll. It's a very tough district, but could be worth watching. And Florida's a state that not only closes early, but it counts fast. So, if things are closed in the 13th District around say 8:00 PM Eastern, about an hour after polls close, things could be a bit more interesting nationally than we think.
Another race the big Democratic groups seem to have moved away from is Oregon's 5th District—which is, on paper, a relatively Democratic district. Biden won 53% of the vote here to Trump's 44%. It's in the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon. But that doesn’t tell the whole story, Singer pointed out:
Oregon has been a really tough state for Democrats this year with the Governor's race in particular, but it does seem to trickle down. Democrats do seem to be struggling in a lot of these seats that are good on paper. And the democratic nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, she ran a really good race in the primary. She beat conservative democratic Congressman Kurt Schrader. But Schrader is not a team player by any means. He's refused to endorse her. He's made a big stink of things. So, Mcleod-Skinner does face a pretty tough fight against the republican nominee, Lori Chavez-Deremer, who's the former mayor of a community called Happy Valley. Republican outside groups, they're continuing to spend here. They've been very aggressive. They've been running ads highlighting how McLeod-Skinner is a former city council person from Santa Clara, California, which is about an hour south of San Francisco, but Republicans are very happy to say she's a San Francisco Liberal, which is often code for gay. McLeod-Skinner would be the first gay person to represent Oregon in Congress. And it's been a tough one. Democrats have recently redirected resources to defend other seats in Oregon, but Republicans aren't acting like this is over. They're still spending. There hasn't been really much polling here, so McLeod-Skinner's the underdog, but maybe not over.
Nir, Beard, and Singer also discussed Arizona’s 1st District — a seat in the Phoenix area in Scottsdale—where Republican David Schweikert is running. Under the new map, it changed from the 6th to the 1st District, and became a bit bluer. Under Schweikert's old seat, Trump won 51% of the vote. Under the new one, 50% for Biden. Not a massive change, but nevertheless one that could make all the difference in a close race. “For a while, it didn't really look like this would be a close race because Democrats have a lot of bluer seats to worry about, but Schweikert's an interesting guy,” Singer commented. “The Democratic nominee is Jevin Hodge, who would be the state's first Black congressman. He's raised a competitive amount of money. And for a while, this still looked like a very tough race, still is, but major outside groups from both sides are taking an interest. Democrats have started pouring money in here. Republicans have responded. So, they're both asking like there is something to see here.”
Things are also heating up in what was previously considered a safe seat in suburban Illinois, the 6th District, which is in the southwestern Chicago suburbs and includes part of Eastern DuPage County. As Singer put it:
On paper, very blue at 55% for Biden, but it wasn't so blue just a few years ago. This is a historically red area. DuPage County for a very long time was one of those Republican suburban bastions that everyone talked about. It revolted during the Trump era but it's possible it'll start to move back. Sean Castin, the Democratic incumbent, flipped the last version of the seat in 2018. He was in the news a lot early this year because he won an incumbent versus incumbent primary against fellow Democratic member, Marie Newman. It looked for a while like that was all he had to worry about, but not so much the last few days. The main super PAC on the Republican side, the Congressional Leadership Fund, they just threw down $1.8 million.
The trio also discussed races in Ohio, California, Rhode Island, Maine, Texas, and Virginia.
Before closing out, Nir asked Singer, “Can you give us a few races where the polls will close relatively early and the races will be relatively close and we expect them to count at a reasonable rate, so we might have some decent information on a full result before 11 PM or midnight, and we can take that to project forwards?”
Singer pointed to two key seats to keep a close eye on, in Virginia and Ohio:
Yeah. So Virginia counts pretty briskly. It closes at 7:00 PM Eastern and there are two big races there, both involving Democratic women who won during the 2018 wave. There's Elaine Luria in the 2nd district in Hampton Roads, and then there's Abigail Spanberger in the 7th district. That's a district that's been really reshaped. It was the Richmond suburbs, now it stretches up to the DC area. Those are both competitive seats. Biden won them both, but not by comfortable margins. Luria's trying to fend off State Senator, Jen Kiggins. Luria's emphasized January 6th much more than most Democrats in competitive races have. So a Luria win would be a good sign. Spanberger's seat is a bit more democratic, but still far from safe. If she holds on, also a good sign doesn't mean we're keeping the house, but it could be a sign the bottom isn't dropping. If both of them go down, that's not something we'd like to watch. Another seat I draw attention to is Ohio's 1st district. It's around Cincinnati. The Republicans in Ohio did pass a gerrymander, but because of some state rules and the state Supreme Court, they were a bit constrained by what they could do. So this very gerrymandered seat in Cincinnati, the 1st district, became much more democratic. It went from a seat that Trump won to a seat that Biden carried by about eight points. The Republican, Steve Chabot, he's running against a Democratic member of the Cincinnati City Council, Greg Landsman. Chabot's been around a long time. He won in the 1994 Republican wave, lost in 2008, came back in 2010. He's been there ever since. He could run ahead, even if it's a decent night for Democrats. But if he's struggling, it's a sign that Democrats are in for a decent night, maybe not a good one, but it's an early sign.
The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts! As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at
[email protected]. Please send in any questions you may have for next week's mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter at @DKElections.
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