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Voters under 30 will be the difference between Democrats solidly beating expectations or not [1]
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Date: 2022-11-02
In 2018, some 36% of eligible voters under 30 cast a ballot, according to an examination by the Census. That was a historic rate of participation compared to previous midterm cycles, and as director of polling for the Harvard Youth Poll, John Della Volpe, noted, it helped generate the massive blue wave that swept across the country.
x Literally a wave.
[Only question is will the #GenZ wave of engagement continue - or - dissipate in the wake of Dobbs, threats to democracy, fear for the future? Large sample, probability-based polling data that has been consistently correlated w/ turnout says otherwise.] pic.twitter.com/ZEpIE6e5zq — John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) October 29, 2022
The annual Harvard Youth Poll released last week found that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds said they would "definitely" vote in November, which would position young voters to exceed their record turnout in the 2018 midterm. That type of youth turnout would be an incredible boon to Democrats, since voters under 30 preferred Democratic control of Congress by 57% to 31% in the poll.
Della Volpe anticipates youth turnout will fall several points shy of 40%.
“I expect it to be a few points less — but that will likely double youth vote in 2014 and most of last 30 years,” he tweeted over the weekend.
One way or the other, young voters will likely be the difference between Democrats having a very good night next Tuesday, a decent night, and a bad night.
A recent GOP poll in Pennsylvania demonstrated just what a critical role the youth vote will play in outcomes. It showed GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz besting Democratic nominee John Fetterman by 3 points. But the poll also significantly undercounted youth, according to TargetSmart CEO and data analyst Tom Bonier.
"Oz couldn't close the gap in PA," Bonier tweeted. "But after [last week’s] debate, a GOP poll showed him up 3. That poll had the youth vote at literally half of what it has been in previous elections. But many media outlets reported that Oz had surged into the lead."
Whether Bonier was talking about a poll from InsiderAdvantage or co/efficient wasn’t clear, but both polls are included in FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate.
The early vote numbers in Pennsylvania also suggest that youth voters could bolster the Democratic effort there.
"Voters under the age of 30 returning ballots thus far are +69.2% D," Bonier noted Monday, calling the stat "astounding." "At this point in '20, that same age group was +51.9D," he added.
Voters under 30 are likely to have a bigger impact in battleground states like the Keystone State, according to the Harvard Youth Poll.
"Young Americans under 30 who live in battleground states (45%) are more likely to vote than those from traditional red (33%) or blue states (40%)," states the Youth Poll.
Della Volpe fully expects voters under 30 to be decisive this cycle.
“Battleground state polling is far from settled, I’m not sure if we will see a Red Wave or Blue Wave on November 8 — but we will see a Gen Z Wave,” Della Volpe said in a statement released with the Harvard poll. “Youth today vote at levels that far exceed millennials, Gen X, and baby boomers when they were under 30. Inspired by the Parkland students in 2018, sparked by fear about their future, the future of our country, and planet, Gen Z is ushering in a new era of sustained political engagement.”
If that proves true, Democrats will fare much better next week than most models are predicting.
Daily Kos has identified three U.S. Senate seats that could flip from red to blue in 2022. Please donate $1 to each of these races right now.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/2/2132994/-Young-voters-hold-the-country-s-future-in-their-hands-this-cycle
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