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Polls don't vote, people do - GOTV! - Good News Roundup [1]
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Date: 2022-11-02
Good Day, Gnuville! Here we are at last, on the home stretch to Election Day. Come in for some good news to fortify you for the sprint to the finish line.
Music first, of course. This song had been in my head all day so I looked it up last night and here it is so you can have it in your head all day today! 😂💙
🎶 Opening Music 🎶
🌊❄️ Midterm is Coming ❄️🌊
Red states may be turning more blue since pandemic start – here’s why, Russell Falcon, WGN, November 1, 2022.
Some of America’s red and swing states (purple) may have gotten less Republican during the pandemic. That’s according to 2020-21 U.S. Census data cited by real estate outlet Redfin in a recent report. The main reason is increasing diversity in areas that are typically whiter, Redfin reports. The data shows that more people moved into red and purple (“swing”) counties in key states last year than in any year in a decade. Redfin explains “key” states are “states in which either candidate has a shot at winning in the upcoming Senate elections.” Census statistics show white voters are historically more likely to vote Republican than Black, Latino and Asian voters — though some data suggests increasing support for the GOP among minority groups, especially Latino voters. Key states with a less white electorate are now, according to Redfin: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these states, red counties gained about 340,000 residents, while purple counties gained around 271,000 new residents last year. Redfin says the trend is also being seen in many non-key states and counties, too. x Red states may be turning more blue since pandemic start – here’s why
https://t.co/Bz6sf0a5DK — WGN TV News (@WGNNews) November 2, 2022
Polls don’t vote, people do! GOTV!
Opinion 4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling, Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post, November 1, 2022.
The bottom line is threefold: First, polling is far less predictive than media outlets often portray it to be, largely because we do not know who will turn out. CBS News has wisely provided a range of polling results depending on different turnout models. That seems far more honest and informative. Second, much of the horserace coverage reliant on polling is crowding out substantive coverage of the races. Outlets should adjust accordingly. Third, we’ll find out the winner only after the votes are counted (shocking!). But even that won’t tell us whether the polls were “right,” or whether they contributed to a false narrative that drove results. In the end, the only sane approach to understanding the election is to ignore all the polling noise and focus on what really matters: turning out to vote.
All the same, polls sometimes do give us a little hope! ⬇
Some surprisingly competitive races that should be cakewalks for incumbents
Oklahoma — A challenger dubbed a DINO has a slim 3 point lead in polls over OK incumbent governor, Kevin Stitt. They can call her a DINO (and she probably is, lol), but her stances are sensible on issues that matter to Democrats — common sense covid response, reproductive privacy and more just arrangements with Oklahoma’s 39 Indian tribes (5 of the 6 largest have endorsed Hofmeister). I think OK could benefit from a switch to this smart woman candidate just like Kansas benefited by electing Gov.Laura Kelly:
Why the Oklahoma Governor's Race Is Closer Than Anyone Expected, Eric Cortellessa, Time, November 1, 2022.
Joy Hofmeister That’s because Stitt’s Democratic opponent, Joy Hofmeister, the superintendent of Oklahoma’s public school system, was a lifelong Republican until last year. “I was a Republican longer than Governor Stitt was registered to vote,” she tells TIME. “I’m fiscally conservative. I’m aggressively moderate. Always have been.” In other words, she’s a Democrat in name only. The latest polling has Hofmeister with a slim three-point lead over Stitt, according to the Oklahoma City-based firm Ascend Action. The tight race is largely the result of a series of missteps by Stitt, from scandals that have plagued his administration to a bitter feud with Oklahoma’s 39 American Indian tribes. Stitt also signed into law one of the country’s most restrictive abortion bills, which has drawn some pushback even in conservative Oklahoma for its banning the procedure in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s health is at risk. And he oversaw one of America’s highest COVID death rates, with roughly 17,000 lives lost. ✂️ “I am personally pro-life,” she says. “But I do not favor extremes on either side of this issue. These are healthcare decisions between a woman and her doctor. The governor invited and signed bills into law that show no mercy for victims of rape or incest. And he has criminalized standard health care, and invited miscarriage bounty hunters at $10,000 a fee, where an individual can sue their neighbor and collect a reward. It’s wrong and it needs to be reversed.”
x Women on the way to vote. Be afraid. Be very afraid. pic.twitter.com/GvZ5jGmJeb — 🖕🏻Aunt Crabby Calls Bullshit 🖕🏻 (@DearAuntCrabby) October 12, 2022
Nevada —
x Video of the morning. Please share.
https://t.co/gecp1puy9s — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 2, 2022
Iowa — A World Without Chuck Grassley in the Senate? Elaine Godfrey, the Atlantic, October 31, 2022.
A looooonnngggg shot, especially with the number advantage of registered Republicans over registered Democrats more than quadrupling since 2020 (from @ 20,000 to @ 88,000), but it’s notable just how close Democrat Mike Franken has got to booting out Chuck Grassley!
Twelve years ago, he (Grassley) defeated Roxanne Conlin by 31 points. In 2016, he beat Patty Judge by 24. This year’s race against Franken didn’t seem particularly newsworthy until earlier this month, when Selzer & Company, Iowa’s most respected polling firm, released results from a survey showing that Grassley was leading Franken by a mere three percentage points. “It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley—previously perceived to be invincible,” J. Ann Selzer, the president of Selzer & Company, told the Des Moines Register. The poll is only a snapshot in time, and it could certainly prove wrong. But it’s reasonable to assume, given other polling since then, that Franken is closer to unseating Grassley than any challenger before him. The most obvious reason for this is that Iowans may finally be noticing how old their senator is—a veritable crinoid in the creek bed of Iowa politics. Although Grassley seems healthy—he runs several miles each morning and kicks off campaign events by doing push-ups onstage—more than 60 percent of the Selzer poll’s respondents said his age was a real concern. “There are a lot of voters between 75 and 85 who think, I wouldn’t want to be in the United States Senate right now. I wouldn’t want to have that life; why does he?” Jeff Link, an Iowa Democratic strategist, told me.
🎶 Music for (hopefully!) retiring Rs 🎶
International Note
Yes, there is still a lot of grim news coming from all around the world, including here in the USA. But this is a good reminder from Greg Sargent —
x Don't miss the big trend here:
*Bolsonaro loss sets new future for Amazon
*US passes largest climate bill in history
*Western allies reject Putin's energy blackmail
Democracies are beating back the ugly alliance of authoritarianism and climate denial.
https://t.co/eeGQFgiSXV — Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 31, 2022
Worst fears about Bolsonaro attempting coup ease a bit
Even Rachel Maddow was concerned: Bolsonaro reportedly met with his defense minister for hours on Monday — I guess the military did not agree to a military coup, though — so today he delivered a brief statement, gracelessly refusing to concede but agreeing to the transition of power.
Bolsonaro Agrees to Transition, Two Days After Losing Brazil Election, Jack Nicas and André Spigariol, New York Times, November 1, 2022.
BRASÍLIA — Two days after losing Brazil’s presidential election, President Jair Bolsonaro agreed to a transition of power on Tuesday, easing fears that the far-right leader would contest the results after warning for months that the only way he would lose would be if the vote were stolen. In a two-minute speech, Mr. Bolsonaro thanked his supporters, encouraged protesters to be peaceful, celebrated his accomplishments, criticized the left and said he had always followed the Constitution. What was absent was any acknowledgment that he had lost the vote or that the election had been free and fair. Instead, after Mr. Bolsonaro spoke, his chief of staff took the lectern and said that the government would hand over power to the incoming administration. “President Bolsonaro has authorized me — when requested, based on the law — to start the transition process,” said Mr. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira.
⚖️ Justice ⚖️
No honor among thieves
Trump lawyers throw Allen Weisselberg under the bus as he prepares to spill the beans at trial, Igor Derysh, Salon, November 1, 2022.
Weisselberg and two of Trump's companies were indicted in Manhattan last year after prosecutors said the company's compensation to Weisselberg included perks like apartments, luxury cars and private school tuition for his grandchildren that were never reported on his taxes. Weisselberg in August pleaded guilty to 15 charges, including grand larceny, tax fraud and falsifying business records. He agreed to serve five months in prison, pay $1.9 million in back taxes and penalties and agreed to testify at the Trump Organization's trial. ✂️ Lawyers representing two of Trump's businesses at the trial, meanwhile, threw Weisselberg under the bus and suggested that Trump may be the real victim of the scheme. "Weisselberg did it for Weisselberg," Michael van der Veen, a lawyer for Trump's payroll company, said in court. ✂️ But Weisselberg still remains on the company's payroll, which van der Veen suggested was out of the goodness of the Trumps' hearts. (🙄)
Courts to Republicans: you are not above the law
Judge: Fulton election workers’ defamation suit against Giuliani can advance, David Wickert, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, November 1, 2022.
Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Wandrea ArShaye “Shaye” Moss, filed the lawsuit last year, accusing Giuliani and others of defamation by spreading false allegations about them based on video from ballot counting at State Farm Arena on election night in 2020.✂️ Giuliani sought to have the lawsuit dismissed. On Monday, Judge Beryl A. Howell of the U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia rejected Giuliani’s request. In her ruling, Howell denounced the “increasingly outlandish paranoia from those claiming the election was being ‘stolen’ ” and said Giuliani “propagated and pushed that false narrative.” Howell’s ruling is not the final word on the lawsuit, which ultimately may be decided by a jury. But it’s the latest rebuke for Giuliani and others who engaged in a coordinated campaign to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia and other swing states. x NEWS: Judge Howell has *rejected* Rudy GIULIANI's effort to dismiss a defamation lawsuit brought by Georgia election works Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, who Trump and Rudy falsely accused of election fraud.
Details TK — Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) November 1, 2022
Supreme Court says Lindsey Graham must testify in grand jury Georgia election probe, Nina Totenberg and Jess Zalph, NPR, November 1, 2022.
The Supreme Court said Tuesday that Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., must testify before a grand jury in Georgia. He has been subpoenaed for questioning later this month about allegations that then President Donald Trump tried to interfere with Georgia's ballot count after the 2020 election.✂️ After granting a brief administrative stay to give Georgia prosecutors time to respond, the court decided to leave intact an Eleventh Circuit order allowing subpoena to remain in effect. The appeals court panel, which included two Trump appointees, said in a unanimous opinion that the lower court had sufficiently limited the range of questions Graham can be asked, in a way that prevents violating his immunity as a senator.✂️ Court's opinion issued with the order assumes that the limits placed by the district court and the court of appeals are sufficient. The court particularly noted that Graham can return to the District Court to challenge "should disputes arise regarding the application of the Speech or Debate Clause immunity to specific questions." For this reason, the opinion said, a stay is not necessary. There were no noted dissents.✂️ With Graham's avenues of relief exhausted, he will likely be required to testify on Nov. 17, as scheduled.
Judge Tosses Mark Meadows’ Lawsuit Against Jan. 6 Subpoenas, Nick Visser, HuffPost, October 31, 2022.
A federal judge dismissed former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows’ lawsuit on Monday that sought to block two subpoenas issued by the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the U.S. Capitol. U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols said the Constitution’s speech or debate clause covered the subpoenas and shielded lawmakers from civil suits linked to their legislative work.✂️ “Without a doubt, the Select Committee’s investigation of the January 6th attack is legitimately tied to Congress’s legislative functions,” Nicholas wrote in a 27-page opinion. “The record makes clear that the challenged subpoenas are protected legislative acts.” x In a 27-page ruling issued Monday night, US District Court Judge Carl Nichols has dismissed former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows' lawsuits against Congressional subpoenas, finding the challenged subpoenas are "protected legislative acts.”
https://t.co/efYB5Wyt8j pic.twitter.com/i9GNcrhDZg — Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule) November 1, 2022
Judge throws True the Vote election conspiracists behind bogus voter fraud claims in jail, Areeba Shah, Salon, November 1, 2022.
OOPSIE!
This just seems fitting:
The Fabulous Reason Why Kanye Can’t Sell His ‘White Lives Matter’ Shirts, Alec Karam, Daily Beast, November 1, 2022.
Kanye West isn’t just blocked from tweeting and posting on Instagram, as the disgraced rapper also can’t sell his “White Lives Matter” shirts... because two Black men own the trademark. Ramses Ja and Quinton Ward, hosts of the radio show Civic Cipher in Phoenix, Arizona, were given the legal trademark from a listener who secured it to ensure it didn’t fall into the hands of someone wanting to profit off of hate speech, such as Kanye West.✂️ Indeed, the federal government’s trademark database confirms that Civic Cipher took ownership of the trademark after it was secured on Oct. 3. The trademark notice says it covers “Blouses; Boxer shorts; Graphic T-shirts; Hooded sweatshirts; Jeggings, namely, pants that are partially jeans and partially leggings; Jogging suits; Ladies’ underwear; Leggings; Overcoats; Polo shirts; Shirts; Short trousers; Short-sleeved or long-sleeved t-shirts; Short-sleeved shirts; Shorts; Ski masks; Sleeveless jerseys; Small hats; Socks; Sports jackets; Sports shirts; Sweat pants; Sweat shirts; Sweat suits; Sweatpants; Sweatshirts; Sweatsocks; Sweatsuits; Tank-tops; Tee-shirts; Women's clothing, namely, shirts, dresses, skirts, blouses.”
😬 Uh-Oh, Elmo!
That whole twitter thing is a slow-motion dumpster fire...
U.S. exploring whether it has authority to review Musk’s Twitter deal, Faiz Siddiqui, Jeff Stein and Joseph Menn, Washington Post, November 1, 2022.
White House officials also previously discussed the possibility of a national security review of the acquisition, according to another person. Additionally, officials at the FBI looked into the potential counterintelligence risks posed by the deal this past spring, according to two people familiar with the inquiry — though it is not clear whether the matter has been studied by senior officials at the bureau or if those discussions are still active. All the people spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss matters they were not authorized to disclose publicly.✂️ Bloomberg News first reported last month that Biden administration officials were weighing whether the United States can conduct national security reviews of Musk’s ventures at Twitter and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network.✂️ “That is an area where I think CFIUS has some pretty robust authority to ensure that Americans’ personal data isn’t exploited nefariously by a foreign government,” he said. “That springs to my mind at least as one major vector for CFIUS to pursue an investigation.” CFIUS remedies would not necessarily scuttle Musk’s acquisition of Twitter, Grotto said, but the government could impose restrictions on what sorts of information rights are given to foreign parties or seek to limit powers they may have over the new company.
🐩💙 CG’s Picks 💙🐩
Hello Everybody! It’s me, Curlygirl! I am feeling almost totally normal again! And I have some really neat stories for you today about some quite amazing animals! First, one of our favorite animals — elephants!
🐘 AWWW!! Melia’s extraordinary Ithumba birth, Sheldrick Wildlife, October 30, 2022.
In the early morning hours of 29th October, wild elephants and ex-orphans began congregating outside Ithumba, as has become their habit during the dry season. Just after sunrise, Head Keeper Benjamin heard a great commotion, followed by a flurry of movement. Amidst all the elephants, something had fallen on the earth. Its arrival sent the wild bulls running for the hills, ears flapping and trumpets blaring in consternation. In fact, all the elephants seemed startled about whatever had landed in their midst. Even the older females, who are usually quite placid, made themselves scarce. Before Benjamin could register what had happened, Melia, Loijuk, Kinna, Kitirua, Kalama, and Olare came running back over. He realised that the surprise delivery was a newborn elephant, still partially ensconced in a white placenta. With no preamble, Melia had given birth!✂️ In fact, Melia was as surprised as we were to find herself a mother! Initially, she seemed flummoxed by the tiny baby lying before her. That’s where her more experienced friends stepped in, helping the first-time mum come to grips with the situation. Loijuk, who is mother to three-year-old Lili, took charge and used her front legs to lift the baby to his feet. (It is interesting to note that the bulls couldn’t take their eyes off the scene yet kept their distance, completely bewildered by what had just unfolded!) This seemed to jolt Melia into action. She embraced her baby with her trunk and guided him over to nurse. It took some practice, but she figured out that she needed to prop her front foot forward, lowering herself so he could reach her breast. As the day unfolded, Melia seemed to become increasingly comfortable with motherhood. She kept staring at her little baby — perhaps marvelling that she produced such a creature! — and caressing him with her trunk. We named him Milo, which means ‘beloved.’ x Did you see the extraordinary big 'little elephant' news over the weekend? Ex orphan Melia returned to our Ithumba Stockades to give birth to her first calf, in the presence of her human family! A baby boy we've named Milo. Read the full story at
https://t.co/vEkkDwHxEw pic.twitter.com/1qf3tkhRKm — Sheldrick Wildlife Trust (@SheldrickTrust) October 31, 2022
🦫WOW! I am glad the beavers have made such a comeback in Europe!
x Beavers in Europe (1900 and 2021) pic.twitter.com/AGE8k3mtxG — Epic Maps (@Loca1ion) October 31, 2022
🦁GASP! I am glad we have no lions in Chicago! (nifty note: sorry CG, I think we do — at the Lincoln Park zoo! But don’t worry — I won’t take you there! 💕).
No Injuries Reported After 5 Lions Escape Enclosure at Sydney’s Taronga Zoo, A J McDougall, Daily Beast, November 1, 2022.
Zoo officials in Sydney have promised a sweeping investigation after five lions were able to briefly escape their enclosure on Wednesday morning. The animals—one adult and four cubs—were spotted roaming beyond their main compound at Taronga Zoo before 7 a.m., prompting an emergency lockdown. New South Wales police were summoned on a precautionary basis, but four of the lions were ushered back into their exhibit without issue. The fifth was returned after being safely tranquilized, according to 9News. x #UPDATE: Five lions are now back in their enclosure, and a investigation is underway after a break-out this morning at Sydney's Taronga Zoo.
Four of the lions calmly returned to their enclosure, while one was tranquilised. @RuthWW #9News
MORE:
https://t.co/5sJoUkzRQP pic.twitter.com/BdBJxCy580 — 9News Sydney (@9NewsSyd) November 2, 2022
⏰Tick tock! Mama and I thought that the clocks changing was a thing of the past! But, it looks like even though the Senate voted to do away with messing with time, it will still happen this year. Oh well, at least this month we GAIN an hour!:
How to Fall Back Without Missing a Beat, Holly Burns, New York Times, October 31, 2022.
The transition to fall is scattered with seasonal markers: The occasional chill in the air; the wearing of the flannel shirt to the pumpkin patch; the urge to make soup. These changes so far have happened like clockwork, and next comes the one that actually involves clocks. On Sunday Nov. 6, people in the United States and Canada will “fall back” to standard time, setting their clocks back an hour and signaling the end of daylight saving time. (Arizona and Hawaii, which are on permanent standard time, keep their clocks the same.) Most Americans dislike this twice-yearly time reset, according to various polls, and it may soon end. Earlier this year, the Senate passed legislation to make daylight saving time permanent, perhaps as early as next year. Click the link up top for all the tips! (no paywall — it’s a gift link!)
⏰Bonus! (we like this suggestion!): Let’s say a permanent goodnight to daylight saving time, Heather Turgeon and Julie Wright, Washington Post, November 1, 2022.
Now the Sunshine Protection Act sits with the House. But as we prepare to change our clocks this November — and with news of Mexico mostlyopting out of daylight saving time, effective this past weekend (the exceptions: towns and cities on the U.S. border) — the idea is sure to be debated again. Popular opinion supports getting rid of clock changes, and for good reason — they’re disorienting and disruptive. But eternal daylight saving time is not the answer. Especially if we want to protect young people. Humans evolved outside, in nature, and our brain clocks are exquisitely attuned to the sun. Standard time is an approximation of the solar day and is more or less in line with the rising and setting sun. Decades of research shows we’re at our best when we live harmoniously this way. Daylight saving time, on the other hand, is essentially mandated jet lag. Permanent daylight time would leave us perpetually out of sync with our powerful internal clocks and would deny us the sun’s rays when our brains and bodies need them most: in the mornings.
That’s all of my picks for another week! Bye for now! Luv, CG 💙🐾
⚡️ Lightning RoundUp ⚡️
⚡️Feeling lucky? Powerball prize soars to $1.2 billion after no winners were found on Monday, NPR, November 1, 2022.
⚡️ 7 Habits That Will Drastically Improve Your Energy Levels, Kyli Rodriguez-Cayro, HuffPost, November 1, 2022.
⚡️ Good question! Why Are People Weird About Only Children? Chiara Dello Joio, the Atlantic, November 1, 2022.
⚡️ The Cold Dose of Reality Awaiting Elon Musk, Evelyn Douek, the Atlantic, November 1, 2022.
⚡️ But which church?🤔 Mike Pence says Americans don't have a right to freedom from religion, Brandon Gage, Salon, October 27, 2022.
💗 How Can You Help Build Our Democracy Back Better? 💗
Here’s a visual to help us keep our eyes on the prize:
💙 RoundUp WIndDown 💙
That’s it from me and CG for another Wednesday. I can’t believe that by the time I post my next Wednesday GNR, Election Day will be behind us and we will be in the middle of the vote-tallying!
Stay focused on our goal, Gnusies — beg, bargain and bully your family and friends to go vote! Don’t be afraid to be a nag! There are times in life when it’s necessary and this is one of them. It is all going to come down to turnout.
Be sure to get some rest and eat nutritious food. Even while you are calling everyone you know to tell them to go vote, make sure you make time to get outdoors for a few minutes a couple of times a day, if you can. Taking little breaks (especially outdoors) will help you stay grounded.
Ok, It’s super late and morning will be here before I know it, so I’ll stop here.
Happy Wednesday, Gnusies!
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