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In AZ, This is the Bottom Right? This has to be Rock Bottom. Plus Important Poll Insights. [1]

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Date: 2022-11-02

I am sitting here in AZ looking at our current situation, and how it applies nationally, and how not so creeping but leaping fascism is threatening to destroy our democracy, and see this headline:

Phoenix — A federal judge on Tuesday ordered armed members of a group monitoring ballot drop boxes in Arizona to stay at least 250 feet away from the locations following complaints that people wearing masks and carrying guns were intimidating voters. U.S. District Court Judge Michael Liburdi said members of Clean Elections USA, its leader and anyone working with them are also barred from filming or following anyone within 75 feet of a ballot drop box or the entrance to a building that houses one. They also may not speak to or yell at individuals within that perimeter unless spoken to first. The temporary restraining order was requested by the League of Women Voters of Arizona after Clean Elections USA encouraged people to watch 24-hour ballot boxes in Maricopa County, Arizona's most populous county.

We needed a Federal judge to come this conclusion? Polite society just could not figure out that civil war is not the direction we wanted to take our elections?

I mean what? Voters here are worried about going to go to the polls, and I know because I have discussed it with several, and yes, as it turns out, lunatics armed with AR-15s is a bit of an “enthusiasm” drain on a voter.

Of course, 250 feet is not enough to stop a bullet, but practically speaking, it takes them out of the range of ballot boxes altogether. So that is good. The judge is a Trump appointee, and says:

"while this case certainly presents serious questions, the Court cannot craft an injunction without violating the First Amendment."

Let us review the First Amendment:

The First Amendment provides that Congress make no law respecting an establishment of religion or prohibiting its free exercise. It protects freedom of speech, the press, assembly, and the right to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

What does any of that have to do with turning a ballot drop-off location into Red Dawn?

In other news..

CNN thinks the electorate is going to be 8 percent more Republican than Democratic. I think that 2022 will be the year phone polling meets its end.

But, beware any poll taken over Halloween. I have tracked this back several years: Polling is dramatically more conservative when done over holidays, and since this was effectively Halloween weekend, more “get off my lawn types” were going to be randomly contacted. That is just how polling works. This is actually 101 stuff. The same phenomena was observed in polls two weeks ago, over Indigenous People’s Weekend.

Of course, most of the people with the benefit of being off, would be calling it Columbus Day.

See where I am going with this?

Marc Armbinder discusses it here:

As should be obvious, any random sample will be representative of those who participate. If certain kinds of voters are less likely to be home and reachable during the holiday week, and if those voters have different political preferences than those more likely to be reachable, the results of the survey may be skewed. It isn’t the Clint Eastwood types unreachable over Halloween. Now you might tell yourself, “Halloween can’t move a poll eight points off.” Eight points is 80 people of a thousand. Yes it can, especially as it was at the end of a weekend. You might tell yourself I am unskewing. Maybe, but.. Anything can happen, and importantly, Morning Consult has its own opinion, also taken over Halloween, using 2,005 voters and they found a different registered universe altogether. How? Online polling. In my opinion, online only polls are going to be the most accurate. I still think Democrats are favored, and that the story is going to be online vs. phone polling. Yesterday I interviewed a pollster, Greg Fink, with The Political Matrix who said that Charlie Crist is leading Ron DeSantis by six points. They have been right all of the time in the past. But it is an IVR phone poll and he only includes those that have voted in the last eight cycles. It may be that a short questioned non-partisan IVR poll is as good as anything phone related, but I am a believer in online only. We will see, but until data comes in Tuesday, I will not cast judgment on Mr. Fink’s efforts. He is the only one that has properly captured the Florida electorate going back to 2018. Nationally, there are close races everywhere, which will require much hard work, but enthusaism is on our side, so yes, question any poll saying our side is not turning out. Why? Because our side is clearly turning out. x Know some folks are wondering why @tbonier and I have talking so much about the early vote.



Simply, the goal of an election is to get more votes than the other side.



So far, that's what Democrats are doing. And that's good. 1/https://t.co/zsS1n6PAip — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) November 1, 2022 Wait for the end of week polls which show Democrats “surging” in the generic ballot. Then, feast your eyes on this: Civiqs (B-, 538) has not shown a meaningful shift in the generic ballot in literally, months. As CEO of Target Smart Tom Bonier says, “Choose your own adventure.” -ROC

I would love for you to join my newsletter, The Claw News, and read the efforts of a writer with journalistic integrity. It helps provide for my family, and I give it my all.

I need to add to my Claw Family!

Love,

-ROC

UPDATE: Just caught Quinnipiac with an inexplicable crosstab:

That says Republicans are 10 points more motivated than Democrats. Ok. It has whites at 51 percent motivated and AA’s at 50 percent motivated, with Latinos at 48 percent. So how does it get to Republicans 59 percent motivated, Democrats 51? And women are less motivated than men? Are they even evaluating their own data anymore?

Latinos at 39 percent Republican? AA’s at 14? Maybe.

And I would have let that go, except the entire narrative of the poll is “Republican enthusiasm.”

Ok, well, how do you get to 59 for Republicans, when not one sub-demographic is above 54?

-ROC

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/2/2133042/-In-AZ-This-is-the-Bottom-Right-This-has-to-be-Rock-Bottom-Plus-Important-Poll-Insights

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