(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
Ukraine Invasion Day 252: counteroffensive actions continue as does disinformation [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']
Date: 2022-11-01
Russian disinformation has stepped up as has Russian manufacturing of imagined facts, the latest accusing the UK of the Nord Stream sabotage.
Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine as of November 1, 2022, 3:00 PM ET storymaps.arcgis.com/…
Would certainly explain a lot, as #US is the main beneficiary of the terrorist attack and #UK is Washington's main loyalist. #NordStream1 #NordStream2 pic.twitter.com/Zr4SAdX45s
Grey-zone tactics at sea have not been extensively studied, but similar tactics are well understood in the cyber domain. In that domain it is usually a hacker group operating formally “independent” from governmental agencies that carry out an attack.
Grey-zone tactics are increasingly common at sea , and have been associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards seizing ships , or the Chinese fishing fleet advancing territorial claims .
This scenario points us to so called “grey-zone” tactics : an attack by a group acting indirectly on behalf of state interests. The involvement of any government will then be very difficult to verify. This scenario implies that the Nord Stream attack was likely to have been the first ever recorded grey-zone activity in the European subsea.
The second scenario is an operation launched from a privately owned surface vessel, such as a fishing boat being used as a platform for divers or submersibles to place explosives. In this case, the attack vessel was hiding in everyday maritime traffic.
This implies that we are looking at a state and its navy. Although the attacks took place outside the territorial waters of the Nato members Denmark and Sweden, they could be interpreted as an act of war.
But it is still unclear how the attacks were carried out. The investigations will probably take months to complete, but there are two likely scenarios. A first option is that the attacks could have been carried out as an underwater operation using advanced submarine technology.
Against those tempted to marvel at the apparent awakening of the Ukrainian nation, there are the words of Lesia Ukrainka , a pen name meaning “Ukrainian woman.” “To suffer in chains is a great humiliation,” she wrote in 1903, when the country had yet to taste self-rule. “But to forget those chains without having broken them is the worst kind of shame.” For much longer than Russia’s war, Ukrainians have fought for — and achieved — freedom and sovereignty.
Yet for the people who live in Ukraine, that complexity is part of the country’s strength. Because of its history as a divided borderland between multiple states and empires, Ukraine has always been a melting pot of cultures, languages and traditions. The result of that intermingling is the modern Ukrainian political nation, members of which speak Crimean Tatar, Romanian, Hungarian, Bulgarian and many other languages in addition to Ukrainian. And as a viral meme from the start of the invasion showed, all of them can tell a Russian warship and its commander exactly where to go in fluent Russian.
Even so, some commentators insist that Russia’s all-out war has somehow molded Ukrainians into a nation for the first time. This is a tired claim: Three decades ago, Ukrainians were perceived as an unexpected nation suddenly risen from the rubble of the Soviet Union. In this simplistic view, Ukraine is little more than a buffer zone with an identity far too complex to grasp that only tenuously amounts to a nation.
This historical experience — of statelessness and struggle, repressive external rule and hard-won independence — has shaped Ukraine into the nation we see today: opposed to imperialism, united in the face of the enemy and determined to protect its freedom. For the people of Ukraine, freedom is not some lofty ideal. It is imperative for survival.
Just as the previous empires collapsed, so did the Soviet variant. In 1991, a week before the Soviet Union ceased to exist, 92 percent of Ukrainian voters — just under 30 million people — supported the declaration of independence in a national referendum. Statehood, at long last, was restored. Since then, this supposedly nonhistorical nation has continued to defend its sovereignty against Russia’s interference and the authoritarian impulses it encourages. In three decades, Ukrainians have mounted several large protest movements and revolutions, testament to citizens’ deep civic consciousness.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman argue that the threat posed by Russia will continue to grow even as the Kremlin sustains conventional losses in Ukraine—and explore how Washington can counter Moscow without risking escalation.
https://t.co/1z7RToijET
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 1. The Ukrainian General Staff notably did not mention specific Russian ground assaults around Bakhmut but noted that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on November 1.[42] Russian milbloggers claimed that intense fighting is ongoing near Opytne (about 3km southwest of Bakhmut) in the Kurdyumivka direction.[43] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger also reported that fierce battles continue in the outskirts of Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut) and Bakhmut as Wagner troops try to break through Ukrainian defenses.[44] Russian sources shared geolocated footage of close-quarters combat between Ukrainian forces and Wagner troops near Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut).[45] Ukrainian soldiers posted footage from settlements around Bakhmut and reported that Ukrainian forces continued to repel endless Russian attacks on Bakhmut and that Ukrainian troops are evacuating civilians in nearby Klyshchiivka (about 9km southwest of Bakhmut).[46] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to conduct routine indirect fire along the contact line in Donetsk Oblast.[47]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove on November 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults northwest of Svatove in the directions of Mykolaivka and Kuzemivka (14km northwest of Svatove) in Luhansk Oblast and near Orlyanske, Kharkiv Oblast (30km northwest of Svatove).[23] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also launched a preemptive strike against Ukrainian forces preparing to resume a counteroffensive in the direction of Orlyanske and claimed that unsuccessful Ukrainian assaults from the direction of Kupyansk in the past weeks have cost Ukrainian forces significant equipment and manpower, which is forcing Ukrainian commanders to prepare for Russian counterattacks in the direction of Kupyansk.[24] Another Russian milblogger claimed that it would be highly unlikely that Russian forces would be able to launch an offensive in the Kupyansk direction until late November or December.[25] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces crossed the Zherebets River near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove) and are preparing to resume an assault on Russian positions in the area.[26] Russian sources claimed that Russian BARS (Combat Reserve) 13 and 16 detachments are currently defending areas in the Svatove direction.[27] The BARS-13 commander reported that Ukrainian forces have increased their grouping in the Svatove direction and intend to take Svatove this week.[28]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian troops are continuing active defensive actions, conducting aerial reconnaissance, and forming defensive lines on the east bank (left) of the Dnipro River.[35] Residents reported that Russian forces are digging trenches and settling in for the defense of the east bank, including along the Nova Kakhovka-Dnipryany-Korsunka line (on the east bank about 45km east of Kherson City), Hola Prystan (8km southwest of Kherson City) and as far south as Mykhailivka, which lies well into Russian-occupied territory about 45km south of Kherson City.[36] Such reports indicate that Russian troops are preparing for protracted defensive operations on the east bank.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Kherson occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov and other Russian sources claimed that Russian troops repelled an attempted Ukrainian attack in the direction of Beryslav.[37] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops unsuccessfully attempted to advance towards Mylove (30km northeast of Beryslav), Sukhanove (32km north of Beryslav), the Bruskynske-Kostromka area (40km northwest of Beryslav), and Zeleny Hai (24km northwest of Kherson City).[38] ISW cannot independently verify these Russian claims.
Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas, logistics nodes, and military assets in Kherson Oblast on November 1. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported on October 31 that Ukrainian rocket and artillery units conducted 180 fire missions against Russian manpower and equipment concentrations in Kherson Oblast and that Ukrainian aviation struck a Russian stronghold in Snihurivka, Mykolaiv Oblast.[39] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Head Yaroslav Yanushevich stated that Ukrainian forces also hit Russian ammunition warehouses in Beryslav Raion.[40] Social media users additionally reported explosions in Kozatske, near Nova Kakhovka, on November 1.[41]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Best support for Ukraine today, besides weapons, are autonomous electricity & heat sources
If you have a generator you don't or rarely use - please consider gifting it to 🇺🇦. We have a difficult winter ahead but we will prevail
Please contact 🇺🇦 embassy in your country for this — Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 1, 2022
x Though Russian attacks have become less effective, the damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been significant. The country is now bracing for the onset of winter
https://t.co/JUWJ62LO3N — The Economist (@TheEconomist) November 2, 2022
x Eight months have passed from “winning the war in three days" to "the need for assurances of safety for the russian Black Sea fleet". — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2022
x "Moscow needs a lengthy pause in the fighting in order to rebuild combat-ready ground troops almost from scratch." Read Vladimir Frolov's current assessment of the war for @CEIP_Politika:
https://t.co/iQrNsVcGye — Carnegie Russia Eurasia (@CarnegieRussia) November 1, 2022
x Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Mi-8 near Berestove, Donetsk Oblast pic.twitter.com/vQqEsCfy3Z — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 31, 2022
Iran plans to send more combat drones and new ballistic missile systems to Russia for use in Ukraine, likely further strengthening Russia’s reliance on Iranian-made weapon systems. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 1 that Iranian officials intend to send a shipment of more than 200 Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Arash-2 combat drones to Russia.[1] The GUR reported that Iran will send Russia the drones in a disassembled state and that Russian personnel will assemble them with Russian markings.[2] CNN reported on November 1 that unnamed officials from a western country that closely monitors Iranian weapons programs stated that Iran plans to send a thousand weapons to Russia by the end of the year, including surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles and combat drones.[3] This would be the first confirmed instance of Iran sending Russia advanced precision-guided missiles. Russia likely negotiated the additional Iranian shipment of weapons systems due to the depletion of its stockpile of cruise missile and drone systems over the course of the war in Ukraine, particularly during the Russian campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The GUR reported that Ukrainian air defenses have shot down more than 300 Shahed-136 drones since Russia starting using them in Ukraine on September 13.[4] Russia will likely continue to use drone attacks and missile strikes against critical infrastructure to try to offset the failures and limitations of its conventional forces on the frontline. Russian dependence on Iranian-made systems, and therefore on Iran, will likely increase.
www.understandingwar.org/...
x The Iranian terrorist state plans to send at least 200 combat drones to the Russian terrorist state at the beginning of November.
https://t.co/SNgwP1aaqH pic.twitter.com/6WLZisxCR3 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) November 1, 2022
x 🔴Ukraine's grain export corridor needs long-term protection and the world must respond firmly to any attempts by Russian to disrupt it, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said
Follow the latest updates in our live blog ⬇️
https://t.co/hq6DXnGZ4g — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) November 2, 2022
x How Russia secretly takes grain from occupied Ukraine via @FT
https://t.co/g5quGWaJro — Dr Anthony Martin (@AMAinsight) November 1, 2022
Even before the February 24 invasion, the war in Ukraine had drawn a substantial but unknown number of soldiers and fighters with right-wing sympathies. Most of the attention has long focused on right-wing militias and paramilitaries that have fought alongside or as part of Ukraine’s armed forces -- a phenomenon dating back to the start of the conflict in the Donbas in 2014.
Ukraine’s famed Azov Regiment was formed out of a right-wing militia called the Azov Battalion that gained renown in the early days of the war. The group’s leaders and founders openly espoused xenophobic and anti-immigrant rhetoric. Its logos bore a close resemblance to some used by Nazi units during World War II.
Later incorporated into Ukraine’s National Guard, Azov has toned down in extremist rhetoric, but retained a reputation as a formidable fighting unit.
For years, Russian officials have seized on Azov as well as 20th century nationalist figures like Stepan Bandera and others for propaganda purposes, often distorting or exaggerating their views and actions in support of the false assertion that Ukraine is controlled or dominated by neo-Nazis.
In announcing the invasion on February 24, Putin attempted to justify it by saying the goals were “demilitarization and de-Nazification.” Kyiv and Western governments say that argument is disingenuous and say, even if it was true, it wouldn’t justify launching an unprovoked invasion against a country with a democratically elected government.
Less attention, however, has been paid over the years to right-wing Russian militias fighting on behalf of Russia, not just in Ukraine but also in Syria.
While some fighters are believed to have joined the ranks of Russian private mercenary companies -- Vagner is the best known -- an unknown number of fighters joined, and trained under, Rusich, as well as the Russian Imperial Movement and its paramilitary unit, the Russian Imperial Legion.
www.rferl.org/...
x BREAKING: Left-wing protesters storm Obama rally in Detroit accusing him of overthrowing the govt of Ukraine in 2014 and leading us into WW3 pic.twitter.com/3joHap62Ag — Alexander the Great (@folgedemplan) November 1, 2022
x “Putin’s War at Home” reveals the inside stories of activists and journalists risking arrest and imprisonment to speak out about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
STREAM NOW or watch on @PBS @ 10/9c
https://t.co/obaclSDt1w pic.twitter.com/qJbG6bGNg5 — FRONTLINE (@frontlinepbs) November 1, 2022
x Anton Krasovsky, who worked for Russian propaganda network RT until he was fired Monday for calling for the murder of Ukrainian kids, posted a new video in which he pleads, "I’m asking you to understand an idiot" and "The tears of every baby are my tears."
https://t.co/tvGK8fPgnK — Meduza in English (@meduza_en) October 25, 2022
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/1/2132896/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-252-counteroffensive-actions-continue-as-does-disinformation
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
