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Still Warm in Europe To Start the Week; Cooler in Ukraine [1]

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Date: 2022-10-30

GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast for Tomorrow (Monday) in Degrees Celsius. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.org; images are free for sharing on social media, and free with attribution to the website in other electronic publications.

This week’s weather forecast again starts out warmer the normal in most of Europe, which should continue to help mitigate demand for gas heat. However, by midweek, a front should sweep across from west to east, bringing rain and cooler weather to the Spain, Gr. Britain, France, and the Benelux region.

In Ukraine, a cool front slides down from the Russia early in the week, but temps stay still above freezing for the most part. Some below-freezing temps at night in eastern Ukraine by next weekend, but no extended deep freeze on the forecast models yet. By next weekend, warm in western Ukraine and colder in the eastern war zone.

ECMWF Temp anomaly in degrees C, next Sunday morning, Nov 6. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com

A little rain will likely accompany the frontal passage in eastern Ukraine tomorrow, and more rain is forecast for mid-week through Friday. However, the amounts of rain are relatively modest, ranging from just a few millimeters to up to about 15 millimeters (about 2/3rds of an inch) in a few spots on central Ukraine. Meanwhile, parts of western Europe start to see some drought-relieving rains, and snow in the Alps.

ECMWF total precipitation over the next 7 days, in mm. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com.

In the 10 day outlook, both the U.S. GFS model and the European ECMWF model are indicating warmer-than-normal temperatures through most of Europe. Of course, models at this time range may not be reliable on the specific weather in local areas, but they are often quite indicative of overall patterns. No deep freeze predicted yet.

Day 10 forecasts from GFS, temp anomaly in C. Source: www.tropicaltidbits.com

Disclaimer, I’m not a meteorologist. Mostly interested in the impact of temperature forecasts on markets for heating gas — I don’t have much to say on the impact of weather on Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion. All images are free for sharing on social media and free for sharing on other media with attribution to www.tropicaltidbits.com, per the site’s policy.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/30/2132417/-Still-Warm-in-Europe-To-Start-the-Week-Cooler-in-Ukraine

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