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The Midterms have me feeling.... HOPEFUL?!?! Yup, that is it! Come share in in! Saturday's GNR [1]
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Date: 2022-10-29
I decided a week ago that I wasn’t going to spend time on polling and “YOUR SHOULD FREAK OUT NOW” articles because I’d like my heart to stay strong enough to carry me past middle age. The fact is polling is a hot mess. Pollsters have never really figured out how to get good data since cell phones and caller ID became a thing. Kurt Bardella hit the nail on the head today when he wrote in the Los Angeles Times that no one really has any idea what is going to happen on Election Day, “especially the pollsters who routinely get things wrong.” Those telling us the outcome is clear are doing us a disservice. Bardella reminded readers of the 2020 headline from Vanderbilt University: “Preelection polls in 2020 had the largest errors in 40 years.” What is more interesting to me is actual data — we have some early voting in, how does it compare to past years? Honestly, it looks pretty F-ing great. The numbers of early voting are great. But more important than that, the ratio of Ds to Rs looks like an improvement. Take a look. This is all taken from a twitter thread by Simon Rosenberg You can find the twitter thread here
A thread w/things I'm seeing this am: . At this point in 2018 Rs had 300k early vote lead. Today Ds have a 2m vote lead. . Turnout is 10% over '18. . Ds outperforming 2020 share in GA, MI, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. . This is encouraging. . Polls have been good for Dems this week. Almost all the tracks this week were +Dem, several showed 3-4 movements to Ds. . Lots of good Senate polls. . "Election moving to Rs" not showing up in this week's public polling or early vote data. . New @nytimes polls in 4 key House races are encouraging for Dems. What they show is a very close election, with many races being decided by 1-2 points. . Why we have to keep working hard. Need to close strong. . Have talked for months about GOP's low ceiling, something I've called the MAGA hangover. . They are struggling to hit 50 across US, not putting races away. . Good example of this is that R held Senate seats in IA, NC, OH, UT, WI remain competitive . We had encouraging polls of Hispanics/Latinos in NV, TX. . Both the Telemundo and Univision polls of Texas Hispanics/Latinos have Beto outperforming both 2018 and 2020. . Still think the recent erosion of GOP brand in heavily Mexican-American parts of US - AZ, CA, CO, NM, NV, TX - has not gotten enough attention. . A new @HarvardIOP poll of 18-29 year olds has very encouraging news. "Definitely voting" matches/exceeds record breaking 2018 midterm numbers, Ds lead 57-31 (+26). . Abortion, gun safety, climate, loan forgiveness, strong recovery = reasons to vote . Liz Cheney will now be openly campaigning for Democrats. The rejection of MAGA by more traditional Republicans is happening across US, could end being a few points in key races and really make a difference. cc @BillKristol . Another important sign of Dem intensity - Dem House and Senate candidates enter the home stretch with a huge cash on hand advantage over Rs. Anemic candidate fundraising, rejection of early vote two big GOP fails this cycle. Gas prices are coming down. Russia is struggling. The economy is strong. We've made historic investments in future growth, success. America is better off today. @POTUS has been a good President. . Let's close strong peeps. . Let's get this done.
Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) faces the challenge of a lifetime — and I mean a lifetime, as he was first elected to public office in 1959 when I was two, and has served in the Senate for four decades — from Democrat Mike Franken, a retired Navy admiral who hung up his commission when Donald Trump was elected and returned home to the Tall Corn State in 2016. Franken, 64, pulled within three percentage points of Grassley, 89, in the Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa Poll, which is among the best in the business. Franken held a notable 11-point lead among independent likely voters in the survey taken Oct. 9-12. The poll indicates that voters might be tired of Grassley and are looking for someone different. Franken is that.
Look, I don’t have a crystal ball. If I told you that I knew we were going to win on 11/8, I would be as dishonest as every other person claiming to know how things will play out.
But what I do know is that, ultimately, whether we win or not on November 8th will be determined by us. This is all about GOTV GOTV GOTMFV.
What can you do?
1. Contact your local Democratic party to see what you can do. You can find a link here to all the state websites here. Or you can Google your town and democratic party to see where to go locally. 2. Swing left is organizing a Last Weekend event to get everyone working to make an impact in the most competitive races by connecting with voters during The Last Weekend before Election Day: November 5-8, 2022. You can sign up here 3. Know anyone who isn’t planning to vote because they don’t think Democrats and Republicans are that different or that this election isn’t that important? Share this with them 4. Pledge to reach out to Democrats you know who may or may not make it to the polls and encourage them to go. Maybe offer to go with them!
Let’s do this!
Not onto the good news:
Good Economic News
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