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Ukraine Invasion Day 248: Russia promised in 1994 to never attack if it gave up its nuclear weapons [1]
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Date: 2022-10-28
In 1994, Ukraine signed an agreement with the U.S., the UK and Russia under which it gave up its nuclear arsenal of 5,000 warheads in return for certain assurances.
International leaders called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine illegal immediately after it began, citing a number of international laws and treaties . One of those treaties is the Budapest Memorandum, an agreement made between Ukraine, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom in 1994.
President Biden is facing new challenges keeping together the bipartisan, multinational coalition supporting Ukraine, which has shown recent signs of fraying with the approach of U.S. midterm elections and a
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia repeated the unfounded claim that Ukraine was preparing to explode a so-called dirty bomb , as concerns rose in the West that the Kremlin was
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces advanced on the Russian-occupied city of Kherson in the south on Friday, and the two sides battled over smaller cities in the east, as the armies fought not only each other but also a thick clay muck that can swallow vehicles’ wheels and soldiers’ boots whole. It is the muddy season, called “bezdorizhzhya” in Ukrainian and “rasputitsa” in Russian. In any language it turns warfare — especially offensive operations — into a slow, arduous slog, exposing troops and equipment to enemy fire. In the southern Kherson region, a largely agricultural area where wide-open plains are crisscrossed with irrigation canals, the chilly, wet weather is making conditions particularly difficult, slowing Ukraine’s offensive. Ill-prepared Russian troops are suffering from “the lack of warm clothes,” Ukraine’s military command said in a statement on Friday, leading to “widespread theft and looting.” Muddy season strikes twice a year in many rural areas of Eastern Europe, with the spring thaw and again with autumn rains, before the winter freeze. Where roads are unpaved, it can be immobilizing. The same conditions hampered Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812, Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine early this year.
Despite the conditions, both sides continued preparations for a long-threatened Ukrainian southern offensive on the strategic port city of Kherson. Russia has moved an additional 1,000 troops, drawn from those swept up in its recent mobilization, into the city to prepare for its defense, even as it evacuates civilians, the Ukrainian military said on Friday.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut; northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmtuske (11km northeast of Bakhmut), Zelenopillia (5km northeast of Bakhmut), and Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut); and south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk. [49] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an assault northeast of Bakhmut near Bilohorivka (27km northeast of Bakhmut). [50] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks northwest of Avdiivka near Novobakhmutivka (15km northwest of Avdiivka); southeast of Avdiivka near Yakolivka (7km southeast of Avdiivka); and southwest of Avdiivka near Mariinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka), Nevelske (16km southwest of Avdiivka), and Pervomaiske (13km southwest of Avdiivka). [51] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also repelled a Russian assault in western Donetsk Oblast near Vremivka. [52] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast. [53]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on October 28. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault in the direction of Berestove, Kharkiv Oblast (20km northwest of Svatove). [22] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an assault near Kuzemivka, Luhansk Oblast (13km northwest of Svatove). [23] Another Russian miblogger claimed that Russian artillery fire repelled attempted Ukrainian advances in the direction of Nyzhnia Duvanka near Kyslivka (28km northwest of Svatove) and Orlianka (31km northwest of Svatove) in Kharkiv Oblast. [24] Russian sources reported that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults northwest of Kreminna near Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna). [25] ISW cannot independently verify the claims made by Russian sources about Ukrainian assaults in eastern Ukraine on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian counterattacks west of Lysychansk near Bilohorivka (11km west of Lysychansk) and west of Svatove near Andriivka, Luhansk Oblast (15km west of Svatove). [26]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces continued to deploy mobilized men and establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 1,000 mobilized men arrived at the Dnipro River’s western bank, with some deploying to Chervony Mayak, Novoraysk, and Zmyivka about 20km northwest of Beryslav. [30] The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Nataliya Humenyuk, stated that Russian forces are continuing to prepare for street fights in Kherson City and are establishing defenses on both western and eastern riverbanks. [31] The advisor to the head of Kherson Oblast, Serhiy Khlan, added that Russian forces are also heavily mining the outskirts of Kherson City and are clearing hospitals of civilians in the city to prepare to treat military personnel. [32] The deputy head of the Kherson Occupation Administration, Yekaterina Gubareva, announced in October 28 that Russian forces prepared Kherson City for street fighting by strengthening the first floors of buildings, emplacing sandbags, and checking for Ukrainian “saboteurs.” [33] Ukrainian partisans reportedly conducted an arson attack against a Russian patrol police station in Kherson City on October 28. [34] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces are stealing medical equipment from northwestern Kherson Oblast and transporting it to Skadovsk and Henichesk, likely in an effort to prepare defensive positions closer to Crimea. [35] A Russian milblogger operating in Kherson City noted that Rosgvardia units are providing security on the eastern riverbank. [36] Another milblogger noted that Russian forces are turning Kherson Oblast into a ”giant fortress” aimed at defending Crimea and cutting off Ukrainian access to the Black Sea. [37]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Ukrainian forces target a Russian T-90M with a precision artillery strike (most likely an M777-fired M982 Excalibur), destroying it. pic.twitter.com/ASc6gmD59B — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 28, 2022
Ukrainian troops are continuing their arduous advance towards the strategic southern city of Kherson, after their lightning gains in the Kharkiv region in September. Analysts say a Ukrainian victory is likely. But they caution that a counter-offensive will be much harder than that rapid advance in the northeast – especially because so much is at stake for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Kherson is a crucial strategic prize – the only regional capital the Russians control. And so is the Kherson region, the gateway to the Crimean peninsula that Russia seized in 2014. Now the Ukrainian forces are trying to encircle this city on the western bank of the Dnieper River – trapping Russian forces there – while targeting infrastructure their enemies rely on, such as the now unusable Antonovsky Bridge.
But the counter-offensive is much more difficult than it was in the northeast. It is now the rainy season in Ukraine, and that makes it much harder to move military vehicles around, as Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov noted at a press conference on Wednesday. He also said that Russian forces are using irrigation canals in Kherson region as trenches to slow down Ukrainian soldiers’ advance.
“The Ukrainian modus operandi is to strike at Russian logistics before launching major offensives; a strategy designed to isolate enemy troops while preserving their own resources and manpower,” said Sim Tack, a military strategy specialist at US security consulting firm Force Analysis. “We don’t know when the Ukrainians will reach the city of Kherson – but we do know that the Russians are actively preparing for it.”
www.rawstory.com/...
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