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The real question is: Can Oz overcome his ick factor? [1]
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Date: 2022-10-26
Oz's intimation that abortion decisions should be left up to “women, doctors, and local political leaders” became the other standout moment of the night.
By Wednesday morning, the Fetterman campaign was out with a new ad, highlighting Oz's assertion that politicians should have a say in women's personal medical decisions.
x Our newest ad after last night’s #PASenateDebate
Dr. Oz would let "local political leaders" like Doug Mastriano ban abortion without exceptions even in cases of rape, incest, or life of the mother.
Too Extreme for PA pic.twitter.com/q722qHwWsH — John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) October 26, 2022
The debate left analysts scratching their heads in a race that has clearly tightened in the final weeks of the cycle. While Fetterman enjoyed a pretty comfortable lead over the summer and much of the fall, the FiveThirtyEight aggregate now has him leading Oz by a little over 2 points.
In essence, independents breaking one way or the other following the debate could swing the race.
To be clear, base turnout—particularly in these hyper-tribal times—is more important than anything. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted Oct. 21-24 among likely voters found that 96% of Democrats plan to vote for Fetterman while 94% of Republicans plan to vote for Oz. That's not exactly a surprise, but the point is there's not a whole lot of crossover between parties.
Overall, the poll gave Fetterman a 2-point edge over Oz, 51% - 49%—data that suggests just about anything could happen.
But in the end, if both bases are energized and turn out, then Fetterman must hold what appears to be a clear advantage among independents, who favored him over Oz in the poll, 58% - 41%.
Which brings us to a tweet from never-Trumper and The Bulwark founder Sarah Longwell, who, full disclosure, is a friend of mine from D.C.
x Objectively Oz is outperforming Fetterman. The stroke has obviously had a real impact. Fetterman’s struggling. But there is nothing likeable about Oz. He’s smirking, fast-talking, and I’m not sure he’s doing anything to reduce his unfavorables. — Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) October 26, 2022
"Objectively Oz is outperforming Fetterman," Longwell tweeted Tuesday night. "The stroke has obviously had a real impact. Fetterman’s struggling. But there is nothing likeable about Oz. He’s smirking, fast-talking, and I’m not sure he’s doing anything to reduce his unfavorables."
Longwell spends much of her time conducting focus groups, often times with swingy type voters who actually flipped their vote from Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020, or the other way around, from Hillary Clinton to Trump. So by her own telling, she watches debates with an eye to how the focus groups she's conducted and observed might react.
"One of the reasons I like focus groups so much is I watched that PA Senate debate and genuinely wonder how voters will respond to it. Do they think Fetterman isn’t up to the job? Or did they watch Oz trying too hard and think, 'jeez, I hate that phony?' Could go either way,” she tweeted.
But to Longwell's point, Oz's unfavorables, while falling somewhat since summer, are still sky high. A CNN/SSRS poll conducted Oct. 13 - 17 found that among likely voters, Oz was 17 points underwater, 38% favorable - 55% unfavorable (it was worse among registered voters, 35% - 56%).
Fetterman fares far better, with a 48% favorable - 46% unfavorable rating among likely voters.
The CNN/SSRS poll also gave Fetterman a larger lead over Oz, 51% - 45%, among likely voters. But again, this race still appears to be very tight—within the realm of it breaking either way at the last second.
So while many analysts have focused on whether Fetterman did enough to assuage fears over his recovery process, an equally important consideration is whether Oz was likable enough to convince independents—who already prefer Fetterman by a lot—to hold their noses and change their vote.
Democratic voters are already rallying around Fetterman, who has raised $1 million since Tuesday night's debate.
It's Oz who needs to make up ground among a cohort of voters who are already disinclined to like him.
Nasty quips such as, "John, obviously I wasn’t clear enough for you to understand this,” may not have been Oz's best choice.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/26/2131457/-Can-Oz-overcome-his-ick-factor
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