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The Ukraine War Begins to Establish its End State [1]
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Date: 2022-10-26
As the war in Ukraine begins to enter its 8th month, it is time to make a report card of the Russian effort to reconquer its lost empire. What began in February with typical Russian bravado and overconfidence quickly delved into a long, slow, and painful disintegration of the Russian military and increasingly the Russian state. So where do we stand now as we near the end of October?
Russia’s military options are almost exhausted as the aerial terror assault of drones did not have any effect on the Ukrainian military and a moderate effect on the Ukrainian populace and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine has tightened its air defenses against low-altitude drone attacks with fewer numbers of drones able to penetrate Ukrainian-controlled airspace. The overall pace of military operations has slowed due to weather and logistical challenges on both sides. Yet, Ukraine has continued to make steady gains in Luhansk and Kherson. Ukraine’s larger concern is now towards keeping a steady supply of Western equipment as governments begin to discuss their commitment towards Ukraine in light of difficult economic conditions. This is especially apparent in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and the U.K.’s turnstile of Prime Ministers. While Russia has kept a strong, confrontational posture towards Europe, we are beginning to see a softening and rapprochement towards the United States by Russia. Several high-level phone calls between Russian and U.S. defense officials during the last two weeks signal that Russia may want to extricate itself from the conflict and that the U.S. will be the key, although not only, player in determining what the conditions will be for a cessation of hostilities.
One of the things about the ongoing narrative of the war has been the absolute focus on President Vladimir Putin and what he may or may not do. Yet nearly no discussion has been made about what Ukraine or the West may do. For example, Ukraine has a significant stockpile of older, Soviet missile systems and could level Belgorad if so inclined. Of course, there are many political and military reasons as to why that would be an unwise move for Ukraine, but don’t sell Ukraine short in being able to retaliate. Just because they haven’t doesn’t mean they are not able.
But Ukraine is fighting this war in tight coordination with the United States, the United Kingdom, and with NATO at large, which means that Ukraine will fight this in a ‘Western’ style of maneuver warfare rather than the attritional, scorched-earth method that Russia seems to favor. I have no doubt that for Russia this is more due to necessity than preference as they have clearly demonstrated that large-scale, combined arms warfare is not something the current Russian military is capable of doing.
Thus, as we begin to enter the winter I believe the final acts will be played out for this conflict before it is concluded. Let’s take a look at how things look for both sides of this conflict.
Russia:
Russia sees that its only viable strategy is to use Western political divisions to try and end or curtail financial and military support for Ukraine and force Ukraine to the negotiating table. Russia will keep a close watch on the U.S. midterm elections and should the Republican party with a strong MAGA base have a sizable lead in the House that could cut off military aid to Ukraine, then Russia will seek to use its financial and political influence to bring that about. Russia will prolong and escalate the conflict if they believe that it will be enough to invoke MAGA Republicans' isolationist tendencies. If the Democrats or moderate Republicans retain control, then Russia will know there is no feasible way to influence U.S. policy until the 2024 election and will seek to draw down the conflict and attain the best conditions it can get for its withdrawal.
Ukraine:
Ukraine knows that the military situation has swung in its favor while maintaining Western support will hinge on developments on the battlefield. Ukraine will seek to keep some positive momentum going in order to demonstrate that any military investment in the war will produce results. With regard to the U.S. elections, Ukraine's position will be the polar opposite of Russia’s. If the MAGA Republican scenario should occur, expect Ukraine to launch a winter offensive to reclaim as much territory as possible before a MAGA Republican House is seated in January and the reduction or cutoff of military aid becomes a distinct possibility. If the Democrat or moderate Republican scenario occurs, then Ukraine will continue its steady operations during the winter and launch its major offensive in the Spring. Ukraine's ultimate goal is to liberate the entirety of its homeland, yet should political conditions significantly change in the West then Ukraine will be on the clock to secure the best conditions it can get before the final negotiations begin.
I believe with these scenarios, we will see the conflict in Ukraine reach its conclusion during the Spring or early Summer of 2023. The culmination point will be what happens during the Winter both in the military and political spheres and what offensives occur in the Spring and what their results will be. Now of course this is subject to change, but my hope is that Ukrainian families will begin to return home next year and the Russian people can finally begin to cut out the cancer of imperialism that has metastasized in their country. Only time will tell.
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/26/2131207/-The-Ukraine-War-Begins-to-Establish-its-End-State
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