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Russian doors to our nuclear futures [1]

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Date: 2022-10-24

Opening the door to the end of the world.

Nuclear deterrence works because leadership is threatened. Sure lots of people die, but that never stopped mass casualty methods of fighting before. What nuclear weapons do is introduce the concept of leaders losing their own lives, and their families and friends, and their meeting places and palaces. If Putin could guarantee the lives of those in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the nukes would have flown months ago.

So that’s why the nukes remain grounded. Putin’s personal space would be violated.

But nuclear possibilities remain. Russia is trying to find acceptable ones now, their military chiefs are talking to other countries about Ukraine setting off a “dirty” nuke. I imagine those chiefs will be told that if that happens then Russia would be held accountable.

But other possibilities remain. Here are a few of those possible doors to our future…

1. Russia blows up a small bomb inside Russia to get full mobilization going. Will NATO start a war if Russia nukes itself? Would a bomb in Russia lock all of Russia into this war?

2. Russia transports nukes through to Iran as payment for Iran’s drones and other help. This would give the world a diversion away from Ukraine. Especially if one of them went off.

3. Ukraine actually does develop/create a nuclear capability. This is not impossible, even if not official.

4. Someone in Russia drinks the Vodka-Aid and diverges from Putin’s nuclear line. Possibly misinterprets data, or orders. Hopefully this is balanced by a modern day Vasily Arkhipov, or Stanislav Petrov (who was educated in Kyiv).

5. Russia tries to create other catastrophes in the world involving nukes. North Korea is the standout low hanging fruit here. Especially as they seem keen to be in the game with their missiles over Japan. But conflict in Azerbaijan/Armenia opens another door.

6. Involve China. Putin must be fuming that China has been less than Best Friends For Life when Putin even delayed the Ukraine war for China’s Winter games, which ended 4 days before this Ukraine fiasco began. Putin, obviously not just him, but I use just his name because he is the stamp of authority, well, Putin, would have looked at plans to get China to walk into the war. A nuke might open that door, depending on how they are used.

The important thing for any leader considering nukes is their own safety. Nukes are the equivalent of old men being made to fight the wars they start. As a result we have few nuclear wars. So Putin will have to find a way to use nukes that blames someone else. Some other country. That’s his best option. I think he has found out that no country believes him anymore. The tiny territories are standing up to the Russian Federation, because Ukraine has done such a splendid job. So, will Putin just give up and go home? No, he must win. That urge to win will drive him to the nuclear door.

Putin’s nature is to grasp. To take. You can see that in the strategy that began this war in February, a whole hand around Ukraine, using the Russian army as a hand to grab and strangle Ukraine. We can even see how Putin’s choice of martial art enfolds that same way of thinking. Judo, the art of folding clothes with people still in them. The grasping grabbing art. This is why Russia is not so great at fast striking army thinking. Putin has the mind of a thief, we see that mirrored in every level of the Russian army. They just aren’t good at taking objectives.

This is why Putin’s nuclear war will not be a straightforward affair. He will go to nuclear, because he always has to win, others must lose. But he will do it badly. We can see the signs of that now as his military leaders contact the West and talk about Ukraine being naughty and planning on using a dirty bomb. Such a silly subterfuge. We all know that this is Russia almost asking permission to use a bomb.

If Putin cannot make a third party start up another war, or nuclear incident, then what can he do?

Surrender? Nope. We know he would lie in agreeing to any surrender.

Escalate to nukes, yes, if he cannot win, nobody does. But first he would have to make everything he values safe, in the same way that a murder/suicide does.

What is the best way to stop him? Kill him. That’s it.

I know killing him would be terribly rude, and cause diplomatic inconvenience, there would even be a few old Western leaders that would shed a tear. Others might say that Putin is rational, that he would never use nukes. I guess these people have never met evil in their lives. Which is a good thing, it shows that the world has a lot of good in it. Others would say remove him from power. Putin has in the past removed himself from power, and put himself back in. He would run Russia even if his official title was retired taxi driver. Others may say, take him to the Hague! Ok, it’s just that the Hague might be glowing by then.

Putin is heading toward the door of nuclear possibilities, and we have to stop that door opening.

Kill him, or pick a door number.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/24/2131015/-Russian-doors-to-our-nuclear-futures

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