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Analysis: FL ain't no Alaska- There's no Blue Wave Coming. And we need to pivot our messaging- HARD. [1]

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Date: 2022-10-24

So- here’s the reality. Polls have the NPAs of Florida breaking 65% for the Republican Party. Midterm turnout right now in FL among Democrats through VBM are… underwhelming at best, and cataclysmic at worst.

All three of our statewide cabinet nominees as Democrats have raised less than 200k total (Between all three of them) in the last couple weeks.

Voters aren’t seeing ads from Charlie Crist, and the ones they are seeing are pushing an issue (being abortion), that clearly isn’t resonating with Democratic voters. If it did, we would be seeing record turnout across the country, and we just *aren’t*.

The reason why is simple: micro-impressions. Anger and emotions among voters is fleeting at best, and when Roe got overturned weeks ago, every time they filled up their tank, and bought groceries, and in some cases their homeowners insurance bills came in. When they get home, they turn on their TVs and see blaming Democrats, and open their mail boxes and see blaming Democrats.

Republicans are motivated, and we… aren’t.

It’s not going to be pretty, and the only thing we can do between now and then is turn out Dems through relational organizing. Call your friends, call your family, and have real, hard conversations.

Tell them this: Republicans don’t have a plan to combat inflation. Ask them, look at their websites. It’s a multi-national issue, with many countries having higher inflation than us due to corporate greed. And who are the corporations donating to while they make record profits? Republicans.

As of right now, Ron Desantis is going to win by 10 points, with Rubio to win by 5-8. I hope I’m wrong, but unless we do something dramatic and quick, these races are over.

We can debate how we can do it better next year on November 9th, but for now, knock on your neighbors doors. If you can’t do that, pitch in to campaigns knocking doors at a significant scale.

Here’s my favorite at the moment, knocking about 1000 doors a day in Pinellas county: secure.actblue.com/…

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/24/2130932/-Analysis-FL-ain-t-no-Alaska-There-s-no-Blue-Wave-Coming-And-we-need-to-pivot-our-messaging-HARD

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