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Ukraine-How to pass the time in winter [1]

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Date: 2022-10-21

Courtesy of Ukraine Control Map

We are now familiar with Ukraine’s ability to launch effective counter attacks. This has warmed the hearts and souls of people across the globe that still believe in Democracy and Kittens. One look at the title map and it’s obvious that Ukraine has successfully pulled every Ruzzian combat unit towards the extreme ends of the front. The RU troops in the Kherson region don’t know whether to fight or flee. The mud in the north along with additional reinforcements have slowed the advance towards Svatove (I swear, we are all going to be able to rattle off dozens of Ukrainian towns from memory by the time this is all over). So things seem to have slowed down a bit. Personally I think if the ZSU was making big gains they would be announcing such. So let’s take a second and consider the situation at hand.

Winter is coming. And I don’t say that just because I finished GOT season 8 last night again. According to World Climate Guide winter is colder the farther north you go. Duh. But southern Ukraine does not have the same weather as the rest of eastern Europe. The Azov and Black Seas act like a warming tray and keep the region at close to freezing temps on average through winter. Even as far north as the town of Dnipro, the mean temperature is 28, 25 and 27F in December, January and February. Heck, that’s better than some towns here in Arizona. Point being, that is not the worst weather or time to launch another kick ass counter attack filled with plenty of headlines and Instagrams of Ruzzia’s pitiful attempts at being a military colossus.

Here’s what I don’t want to see. The last thing I think should happen is a frontal attack on Kherson. Too much damage and more importantly, too much death is in the cards with that scenario. Ukraine has done a tremendous job of taking the fight to RU using the disadvantages they have in mind. They can not afford to lose these newly trained troops this Fall. Let them get some experience before using them to their full potential.

I do not want to see a full scale attack on Severodonetsk or the Donbas region in general this winter. The RU is dug in and the terrain is too rough to use ZSU armor to great effect. But they have to keep the pressure up on these fronts. Why? Because of what I do want to see.

Take a closer look at the area in the middle of the map.

The much discussed Zaporizhye Nuclear Power Plant is on the far left of the map. But from the edge of the Dnipro River east, there’s 80 miles of front that are held by three motorized rifle divisions. And we are all familiar with the fact that they probably have more washing machines than working vehicles. There are some of us here that have been talking about this area since the Spring. I’d say there’s been some agreement here at DK that this is an area that is ripe for exploitation. We’ve waited patiently for the town of Tokmak to make the headlines. Why? It’s the last rail line to Kherson.

The RU has dutifully filled the Kherson front with 13 divisions or brigades according to the Ukraine Control Map. The ZSU doesn’t have to drive all the way to the Sea of Azov to make these troops lives even more of living hell than it must already be. Take Tokmak and the entire Kherson front will crumble even further. Remember, you can’t eat washing machines, even in summer.

We’ve seen the ZSU make their major push in the north during the best time of year to do it and the murderous invaders couldn’t even stop them. Once the rains came, we saw the ZSU make a similar push in Kherson during the best time of year to do that. They’ve now been extended as far away from this area as possible. So if you are the ZSU, how do you spend the winter? By capitalizing on recent successes and cutting off 13 divisions from retreat, using the best climate and weather conditions you have. Winter skies over southern Ukraine are generally grey. I can’t help but think this could be used as a cover from what little RU air force is operational. The ground will be hard enough to get armor across open country, but not cold enough to make life miserable for the liberators.

I just know that the heroes of Ukraine can give Vlad the Imp a very lovely gift for Christmas and throw one hell of a New Years party.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/21/2130431/-Ukraine-How-to-pass-the-time-in-winter

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