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Ukraine Invasion Day 241: Putin’s Last Hope to Win in Ukraine Is a GOP Victory in November 2022 [1]
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Date: 2022-10-21
All politics is local and war is also an extension of politics, whose mother’s milk is money.
TRANSLATION : Vladimir Zelensky today held a regular meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Staff. The main items on the agenda: - defense against Russian missiles and UAVs, - protection of infrastructure facilities, - defeating the positions of Russian troops, - advancement of the AFU and everything necessary to support the army. The military, intelligence, and ministers reported. ORIGINAL : Владимир Зеленский сегодня провел очередное заседание Ставки Верховного Главнокомандующего. Основные пункты повестки дня: - защита от российских ракет и БЛА, - защита объектов инфраструктуры, - поражение позиций российских войск, - продвижение ВСУ и все необходимое для обеспечения армии. Докладывали военные, разведка, министры. SOURCE :
https://t.me/XU_kraine/21980 XUA-фото войны
This is by far one of the best examples of OSINT (with the focus on the 'INT')! Extremely effective data visualisations based on up-to-date reporting of Russian losses in Ukraine. Outstanding work @ragnarbjartur ! #osint #UkraineWar #dataviz
https://t.co/dSj1bZ3UA2
x The losses caused by Russian attacks on Ukraine's roads, railways, bridges, and other critical infrastructure sites amount to $35.3 billion; business losses amount to $9.9 billion, the Kyiv School of Economics reported. — The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) October 21, 2022
x President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine warned that Russia was preparing a “false flag” operation to blow up a large hydroelectric dam in the south of the country, potentially flooding 80 towns, villages and cities, including Kherson.
https://t.co/MnYNrqeq2l — The New York Times (@nytimes) October 21, 2022
Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
x Ukraine war: Ukrainian army approaches Kherson, Russian 'evacuations', dam warnings
https://t.co/AlkPFyobpX — JulietteSchwartz (@Juliett59778255) October 21, 2022
x Bakhmut-Siversk Area Frontline Overview🧵
Russian forces continue frontal assaults on the eastern and southern direction of Bakhmut whilst also increasing assaults on eastern Soledar.
East of Siversk the frontline continues to be unchanged with heavy fighting raging
Details👇 pic.twitter.com/mhDOu8FPyY — WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) October 21, 2022
Up to 60,000 civilians are expected to be evacuated in the next few days from the western part of the Kherson region, on the right-hand side of the Dnipro River, to the eastern bank of the river with residents told then to travel to other Russia-occupied regions.
Residents were told to leave Kherson after Russian-installed officials warned them that Ukraine is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive. Ukraine has decried the evacuations, likening them to deportations and telling residents not to comply.
www.msn.com/...
air alerts Day 240
x In the last few days, an interview given by the new Russian commander in #Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, was reported in the media. Noting that “the situation regarding the special operation is tense”, an assessment of his campaign options going forward is required. 1/25 🧵 pic.twitter.com/xL11FCwsGK — Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) October 21, 2022
2/ Surovikin clearly understands the political intent for his campaign. As noted in the interview, the desired outcome is “that Ukraine was independent from the West and NATO, a friendly state to Russia.”
3/ Whether this is possible or not from our perspective, these are his marching orders from Putin. The first interview with General Sergei Surovikin: what did the new commander of the special military operation in Ukraine say?
4/ That is the political outcome desired. What kind of military campaign might #Surovikin implement to achieve it? That is the political outcome desired. What kind of military campaign mightimplement to achieve it?
5/ We have seen the inklings of his thinking over the past two weeks. First, he is seeking to destroy the will of the Ukrainian people.
6/ As an air force officer, it is clear he has succumbed to the theory that populations can be shattered by aerial attack. While the increased attacks of the past fortnight reinforce Putin’s support base at home, especially the hardliners, #Surovikin has other aims. As an air force officer, it is clear he has succumbed to the theory that populations can be shattered by aerial attack. While the increased attacks of the past fortnight reinforce Putin’s support base at home, especially the hardliners,has other aims.
7/ By targeting power and water infrastructure, he is clearly focussed on breaking the will of Ukrainian people in winter. The use of Iranian drones, which loiter before diving on their targets, also aims to terrorise civilians. Ukraine's utilities threatened by Russia in war's new phase
8/ This is #Surovikin borrowing from his Syria playbook, where terrorising civilians to break their will to resist was a core part of the Syrian regime’s playbook – and it was wholeheartedly embraced by the Russians. president.gov.ua/en/news/usi-sv… This isborrowing from his Syria playbook, where terrorising civilians to break their will to resist was a core part of the Syrian regime’s playbook – and it was wholeheartedly embraced by the Russians.
9/ Another impact of the Russian attacks from the air is confidence among those who wish to invest in Ukraine. As hardy as the Ukrainian defence has been, their nation still requires masses of foreign capital to rebuild homes, businesses and infrastructure.
10/ Finally, his targeting the will of the Ukrainian people has now embraced the declaration of martial law in the oblasts annexed by Russia. Putin Declares Martial Law in 4 Illegally Annexed Ukrainian Regions
11/ So, Surovikin’s initial actions as unified commander have been focussed on breaking the will of the Ukrainian people. How else might he be thinking about achieving his mission from Putin?
12/ Clearly, he needs to rethink his military campaign. He has some flexibility, but the foundations of any future Russian military campaign have already been laid by the actions of his predecessors.
13/ Surovikin’s predecessors have bequeathed him territory already captured in the south and east. He also now possesses an army in the field, which is very weary, has a morale problem and has seen constant attrition of its manpower and best equipment.
14/ This is an Army that was defeated in the #Kyiv campaign and the #Kharkiv campaign. It is also on the backfoot in northern #Luhansk and northern . It is holding ground in #Zaporizhzhia and making very small gains in #Donetsk. This is an Army that was defeated in thecampaign and thecampaign. It is also on the backfoot in northernand northern #Kherson . It is holding ground inand making very small gains in
15/ The only part of the Russian Army currently undertaking offensive operations is their Wagner mercenaries. There are tactical as well as political drivers for this. Wagner Mercenaries Buttress Russia's Battered Army
16/ The Russian army is being supplemented with mobilisation, which Putin has announced would come to a conclusion soon. As @MassDara notes, this mobilisation of humans is accompanied by a mobilisation of state & economic resources for war. Unroll available on Thread Reader
17/ Regardless of the number of troops mobilised, the best #Surovikin can hope for is that they provide a ‘stabilising’ influence. This means that they will be used to plug gaps in the existing Russian scheme of defence in the east and south. They are human speed bumps. Regardless of the number of troops mobilised, the bestcan hope for is that they provide a ‘stabilising’ influence. This means that they will be used to plug gaps in the existing Russian scheme of defence in the east and south. They are human speed bumps.
18/ Rebuilding Russia’s offensive power for the war will take time. Surovikin has almost no resources at his disposal now to conduct large offensive ground operations to secure the annexed oblasts. This is a key reason he will probably rely on air attacks in the coming months.
19/ Given this, what kind of campaign can we expect Surovikin to construct & lead in the coming months? First, he will sustain his campaign targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and the will of the Ukrainian people (despite there being no historical example of this being successful) Given this, what kind of campaign can we expect Surovikin to construct & lead in the coming months? First, he will sustain his campaign targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and the will of the Ukrainian people (despite there being no historical example of this being successful) 20/ Second, he will pick ground to be defended over the winter and that which will have to be ceded so he can preserve his force and concentrate it to defend key areas between now and Spring in 2023. He has already started shaping perceptions around this for #Kherson.
21/ Third, he will be ensuring the key supply routes are defended and that he is building a more resilient and hard to target logistics network. This will probably be accompanied by a build-up of stocks for future offensive operations.
22/ Fourth, he will already be planning his 2023 campaign objectives, including the application of any new ground forces that might become available next year. While the Russian’s tactical recon has not been great, they will be conducting recon to support planning for 2023.
23/ Fifth, #Surovikin must meet Russian political intent of drawing the war out for as long as possible. Putin clearly believes the west will eventually lose interest in the war, and supporting Ukraine. While this is yet to be proven, he appears convinced this is a possibility. Fifth,must meet Russian political intent of drawing the war out for as long as possible. Putin clearly believes the west will eventually lose interest in the war, and supporting Ukraine. While this is yet to be proven, he appears convinced this is a possibility.
24/ Notwithstanding Surovikin’s brutal and highly questionable background, it is prudent to assume that he is a competent & crafty campaign planner / leader. Despite Russian poor performance so far, we should not underestimate the enemy. End.
25/ Thank you to those who images, and work, were used in this thread: @MassDara @barronsonline @nytimes @APNews @IAPonomarenko @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats @KarolinaAHird @RALee85 Thank you to those who images, and work, were used in this thread:
• • •
TRANSLATION :
Dear residents of the region! Ukrenergo dispatchers report that the population began to consume electricity more economically. However, the situation in the power system has not yet fully stabilized, the request for savings remains relevant.
As already noted, there are peak consumption hours in the power system - from 7 to 11 am and from 5 to 11 pm. Yesterday, October 20, most people saved until 10 am, and then consumption began to grow sharply. That is, the peak shifted, but did not disappear. Because of this, dispatchers were forced to apply forced outages, including in the northern region. Yesterday at 10 o'clock in the morning, residents of Chernihiv region consumed 9% more than in the evening of the previous day.
🙏 Once again, we ask you not to turn on many devices at once. Following the advice "One lamp plus one appliance at a time" by each household will make outages shorter.
⏰ At the same time, Chernihiv region was included in the list of the most economical in the evening.
⚡️ So we urge you to become even more economical, in particular in the morning. Thus, you will help to restore the grid damaged by shelling and balance the power system.
SOURCE :
https://t.me/UkraineNow/21573
Ukraine NOW
x On the Svatove-Kreminna battlefront, Ukrainian defenders also repulsed a rashist attack on Bilohorivka and in the direction of Lyman. The rashists shelled Dvorichna and Berestove in Kharkiv region.
–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational info, 18:00, Oct 21
2/2 pic.twitter.com/GjRHzQNHEj — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) October 21, 2022
German company Hensoldt delivered TRML-4D* to Ukraine. *Multi-Functional Air Surveillance and Target Acquisition Radar System”
x German company HENSOLDT is supplying four radars for IRIS-T SLM air defence system, which is designed to strengthen Ukraine's defence capability
As part of order from Diehl Defence worth two-digit mn euro sum, one of radars has already been delivered to 🇺🇦
https://t.co/p3nYyxbvxy pic.twitter.com/QPodqx9HKZ — Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 21, 2022
The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft (Qi) published a report indicating that U.S. arms sales increased during the Presidency of Joe Biden, despite the fact that he promised that this would not happen when he was a candidate.
x Silvio Berlusconi has claimed that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy “provoked” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, triggering a fresh political row and threatening the stability of Italy’s new government just days before it is expected to take power.
https://t.co/BpZKfJidsU — Mayte Chummia (@Maytechummia) October 21, 2022
x They were happy to blow $4tr on the whole WoT debacle, not much oversight there. What’s a few tens of billions to cripple a major geostrategic rival. — Felix Patrick Fisher (@FelixPatrFisher) October 21, 2022
[END]
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https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/21/2130302/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-241-Putin-s-Last-Hope-to-Win-in-Ukraine-Is-a-GOP-Victory-in-November-2022
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