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The threat to Ukraine from Iranian ballistic missiles [1]
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Date: 2022-10-21
Iran produces a wide variety of ballistic missiles.
One of the bigger threats on the horizon that Ukraine will likely have to deal with are Iranian ballistic missiles.
These are missiles that Ukraine currently has only limited defenses against and which pack a powerful punch.
The potential of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to cause significant destruction is in little doubt, with multiple instances of them having been employed in combat. In the last couple of years, such incidents have included the January 2020 attack against Al Asad Air Base in Iraq, which made use of a Qiam series short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), and the March 2022 attack on Erbil in Iraq, which used Fateh-110 SRBMs. These weapons hit very hard with an impressive degree of accuracy. Iran’s ballistic missile systems have also been characterized by their proliferation — another factor that has a significant bearing on stability in the Middle East. According to Western estimates, there are at least 20 different Iranian ballistic missile designs, and more still if different sub-variants are included. It also means there is a wide assortment of different missiles that Russia could choose to buy and, for many of the relevant types, significant stocks that would enable rapid transfer.
To be clear, Iranian missiles have likely not yet been provided to Russia. although there was a report that an Iranian-made Khyber Shikan medium-range missile (range said to be 1,450 km) was used in an attack on Bohorodychne in Donetsk Oblast.
Tyler Rogoway, who writes a lot on aviation issues for The Drive, has posted an informative thread on Twitter that looks at this threat in detail:
x Iranian ballistic missile work, they carry a much larger payload than the Shahed drones and hit way harder than the land-attack cruise missiles. Russia is low on Iskander-M SRBMs so they are not the threat they were, and they need to keep a good reserve of them for... — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 20, 2022
x If the supply is in the hundreds to start as we think is the case, this could be a major problem for Ukraine going into winter. The primary western air defense system that exists in significant numbers that can defend critical areas against these types of missiles is the... — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 20, 2022
The primary defense to these missiles would be American Patriot missile batteries, but you can’t just ship them over and have them up and running in a few days. The training on these systems is quite long. Hopefully we have already been trained Ukrainian crews on Patriot systems with this day in mind, but who knows.
The alternative might be unpalatable to the US and its European allies — Patriot systems operated in Ukraine by NATO personnel. But if the alternative is allowing Russia to obliterate Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian missiles, it might be necessary.
Another complication of these missiles is that a Russian-Iranian deal would give Israel heartburn, but Israel has been reluctant so far to get too involved in this war. That could change with Iran’s ramped-up involvement.
x This sounds like too little to many, and that is certainly fair, but don't discount this contribution. Israel has the most advanced layered air defense system on this planet, with unique sensors that enable it. This includes the exact types of systems Ukraine... — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 20, 2022
x and have been actively developing sensors, including airborne look-down sensors (critical!) to defend against hordes of low and slow flying small signature drones. This is exactly the early warning and track data Ukraine needs badly... — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 20, 2022
Israel has the well-known Iron Dome air defense system, which is great against threats like short-range rockets, artillery shells and drones, but not much good against long-range ballistic missiles. So, while Iron Dome would be a valuable asset for Ukraine if Israel was willing to supply it, it wouldn’t help much against ballistic missiles.
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