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Ukraine update: Looting and chaos spread as Russian control of Kherson area unravels [1]
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Date: 2022-10-20
Rosgvardia secure Red Square after Kremln places Moscow on 'increased alert.' October 20, 2022.
Some posted images now suggest that Russia has been slowly withdrawing forces from the area west of the river for at least two weeks. This extensive thread from Radio Free Europe reporter Mark Krutov documents multiple crossings of Russian ferries, carrying soldiers and equipment across to Nova Kakhovka on the east bank. And of course, they’re also carrying what’s really important.
x It is also reported that - overnight, more than 60 trucks left on ferry crossings from the right to the left bank, which were allegedly filled with dozens of tons of household appliances stolen in Kherson — Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 20, 2022
Meanwhile, there are good indications that the line along which fighting has continued after the big Ukrainian advance at the start of the month has begun to move again. Russia reportedly shelled some of the positions along that line, including Bruskynske, which is a good indicator that Ukraine now holds those positions. Meanwhile, Russian sources are reporting that they stopped an improbably large Ukrainian force near Sukhanove. FIRMS data on Wednesday showed hot spots at Mylove and north of Sukhanove, but over the last 24 hours, it’s all gone cool. Whether there is still active fighting along this line on Thursday isn’t clear.
What is clear is that Russia’s position in Ukraine—not just in Kherson—appears to be on the brink of disintegrating. On Russian state TV, pundits who just weeks ago were sneering about how all of Ukraine would soon be under Russian control, are mourning what they describe as inevitable losses of territory. It’s been just two weeks since Putin announced the annexation of four regions in Ukraine, and Russia has lost territory in all of those regions. Now Russia seems to be poised for more massive losses at opposite ends of the front, even as they continue to make minimal gains in one tiny area.
The situation is bad enough that Russian pundits are now proposing genocide as the only possible solution. It’s horrific. But it’s also delusional. It’s just another example of how Russia finds anything at all acceptable, except for the idea of leaving Ukraine in peace.
x Russian lawmakers Andrey Gurulyov and Konstantin Dolgov advocate freezing, starving the Ukrainian civilian population, forcing them into exile by making their survival otherwise impossible. State TV host Olga Skabeeva disingenuously claims that Russia simply has no other choice. pic.twitter.com/joz8ui9P8l — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 20, 2022
Russia has a choice. It can stand up to Vladimir Putin and end this disaster. That murdering other nations and peoples is more acceptable is testimony to cowardice.
The other aspect of what’s going on in Kherson is the mass abduction and deportation of Ukrainian citizens. That even includes the collaborators. They may have been of some use to Russia in Kherson, but what value do they have once they’re shuffled out of that region? Do they think Putin is going to give them a nice Hero of Russia ribbon and a pension to settle down on the Moscow ring road for their role in a humiliating loss? All of the Ukrainians being stolen away are headed for hard lives in bad places, and unfortunately, the great majority of those being forced out of their homes are not those who had a hand in Russia’s occupation government. This is just genocide by different terms.
x The kremlin is urging immediate evacuation of our citizens from Kherson to russia.
Urging the same people who stopped 🇷🇺 tanks with their bare hands, who know the value of democracy, & who live on a beautiful land by the sea, a relocation to Siberia? They are insane. — Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 20, 2022
Russia has been keeping up a pretense that it was using its own drones in the attacks against Ukrainian cities, even though everyone paying the slightest bit of attention knows this is patently untrue. Not even Russian announcers are good at keeping up this lie.
We previously saw some of these M30A1 shells stacked in crates in Ukraine, but this may be the first one that’s been seen in use in the field. This is absolutely the intersection where you did not want to be standing this morning.
x Precise HIMARS strike using M30A1 missiles. Those missile contain up to 200,000 tungsten ball bearings. You can also see it how they explode above the target. Nothing in a diameter of 100m survive that tungsten rain. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/tHRMIPhDOP — (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 20, 2022
Right now, everyone is just waiting to see what happens in Kherson over the next hours or days. Expect updates. But of all the reports of Russians looting and running this morning, this may be the oddest. And possibly the most ominous.
x Energodar residents report that Russians are leaving the city, looting and loading military trucks with household appliances and other valuables. pic.twitter.com/wjEEYgytqx — Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) October 20, 2022
Enerhodar is, of course, the site of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. It’s not in Kherson Oblast. It’s not near the Dnipro River. It’s great to see Russian forces leaving the area around the plant. Except it’s also more than a little nerve-racking. For Russia to surrender the power plant seems incomprehensible … unless they have something planned for that site that’s worse than the shelling they’ve already delivered.
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