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More Americans Are Voting Early, but What Does That Mean? Here are some details [1]

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Date: 2022-10-20

This was just published by Targetsmart today and gives some interesting insights into the early voting phenomena we are currently witnessing

Early Vote? What does it all mean??

Here is their hard data

Pennsylvania The path to the Senate majority runs through Pennsylvania. Historically, early voting in Pennsylvania has been restrictive, evidenced by the fact that more people have voted already in this cycle than in all of the early vote period in the 2018 election. With three weeks to go, there have already been 294,809 ballots cast in Pennsylvania. At this point in 2020, a presidential election where turnout is drastically higher, there had been 356,914 ballots cast. And at this point in 2018, there had been just 30,483 ballots cast. The 2022 numbers do not yet include ballots cast in Philadelphia county, whereas the 2020 and 2018 numbers do.

294,809 ballots cast in Pennsylvania. At this point in 2020, a presidential election where turnout is drastically higher, there had been 356,914 ballots cast. And at this point in 2018, there had been just 30,483 ballots cast. The 2022 numbers do not yet include ballots cast in Philadelphia county, whereas the 2020 and 2018 numbers do. Of the 294,809 votes in Pennsylvania so far, Democrats have accounted for 213,126 (72.3%) of them, compared to Republicans accounting for 71,333 (24.2%).

During the same time frame in 2018, Democrats accounted for 19,100 (44.0%), compared to Republicans accounting for 21,092 (48.6%).

Women are accounting for 56% of the early vote, compared to 43% men. This 13-point gender gap is a 5 point increase over 2018.

Georgia 289,693 Georgians have voted already in the election, 157,797 (54.5%) votes by modeled Democrats and 113,234 (39.1%) votes by modeled Republicans. This 15-point gap is 5 points larger than it was in 2020 and 19 points larger than it was at the same time in 2018.

157,797 (54.5%) votes by modeled Democrats and 113,234 (39.1%) votes by modeled Republicans. This 15-point gap is 5 points larger than it was in 2020 and 19 points larger than it was at the same time in 2018. 38.6% of all ballots cast so far (111,723 total votes) have come from African Americans, a 4.4% increase over the share of ballots cast by African Americans at this point in 2018.

Wisconsin So far, women have outpaced men in ballots cast, with 101,703 cast by women compared to 72,393 votes cast by men, a 16-point gap.

101,703 cast by women compared to 72,393 votes cast by men, a 16-point gap. Additionally, Democrats have outvoted Republicans in this early vote period by 15 percentage points.

At this point in 2020 Republicans held a one point lead over Democrats, and at this point in 2018, Republicans held a 10-point lead over Democrats.

To sum it all up, there are certainly conclusions and observations that can be made from the data we have so far. Democrats, and women, are clearly voting early in high numbers.

This is not a controversial conclusion...the early vote is exceptionally high based on hard data...and we all know Democrats tend to vote early compared to Republicans voting on the day of the election. Prior to Dobbs GOP new registration was VERY HIGH....post Dobs Dems voter registration overtook them. So both parties are highly engaged in this puppy.

The early vote is simply not congruent with the media narrative....especially Georgia. Possible poll miss is that the pollsters are not weighting the newly registered young people in their LV models at a time when the LV is becoming weighted heavier in their polls. They are keeping the new voters with the RV. Whereas the early vote is telling a completely different story.

Regardless of the miss being GOP or DNC...there is one thing that is consistent. The pollsters suck...and alot of that is just not being able to get in touch with the populace. And the MSM is lazy by not covering this.

Maybe Michael Moore actually does have his pulse on this? Just sayin

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130162/-More-Americans-Are-Voting-Early-but-What-Does-That-Mean-Here-are-some-details

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