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A Quick Sanity Check about the GCB [1]

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Date: 2022-10-20

2018. Simpler Times

Because of the R+6 Monmouth poll and the R+2 Siena poll, everyone is losing their freaking minds with regards to the election. Besides the fact that we have to stop the circular firing squad, we also need to remind ourselves that this is by no stretch of the imagination over. Above, I’ve posted the 2018 GCB polls that came out at this point in the cycle. Dems were leading anywhere from +3 (from our old pals at Rasmussen) to 13(!). And, of course, we did win big. But you know who did pretty well? Republicans in the senate who gained seats, despite all of this. The map favored them that year.

This year, we’ve got incumbents in NV and AZ and GA and while the first of them is very close, incumbency does matter. In PA (a state which already has another Dem senator, a Dem governor, and a gubernatorial candidate likely to give a little lift in the senate), we’re likely to win as well. And everything else is gravy. But FWIW, I wouldn’t count out WI, NC, OH or even FL.

I wrote a post yesterday about how much of the apparent movement in the polls (and the accompanying journalistic finger-pointing) is due to RW pollsters flooding the news cycle. But that’s not the only data out there. We’ve got record high early voting in places like Georgia. We’ve seen Dems not only triumph but dramatically beat the polling in Kansas and the California Recall and the NY specials. There are plenty of reasons to assume optimism. But the press is going to do their best to depress our turnout and make a loss seem like a foregone conclusion. Don’t let them.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130215/-A-Quick-Sanity-Check-about-the-GCB

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