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This week on The Brief: What polling is saying about the forecast for November [1]

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Date: 2022-10-19

Americans are fired up to vote this November, with 84% saying they will definitely vote in the midterm elections. “What I think is notable is just how high interest is in this election, across the board,” Linzer noted, despite Donald Trump no longer being in office. “Interest in voting is still at an all-time high.”

With so many issues at top of mind for voters, especially the economy, “Does Joe Biden even matter this November?” Moulitsas wondered.

With Biden’s approval numbers stuck at 40%, as Civiqs has been tracking, “the lower the approval rating of the incumbent, the worse the incumbent party does in elections,” Linzer stated, assessing the situation. “I don’t consider that a very encouraging sign; I think that’s a very worrisome sign for Democrats.”

“It’s among the worst numbers that we’ve ever recorded,” Linzer noted, of confidence in the economy and how things are generally going in the country. In the latest poll, 58% of voters mentioned the economy in their top three most important issues heading into the elections. The numbers were especially high among Republicans and independents. For Democrats, 52% of Democrats say that abortion was among their top issues. “We can’t escape issues around inflation and the economy—they’re just dominating [voters’ psyches].”

What are Independent voters worried about? 60% mentioned economy, inflation, jobs. They also worry about fair elections and democracy. “People are really concerned about the state of democracy, and will be voting in this election with that on their mind,” Linzer said, noting that it is not just a theoretical. Independents also care a lot about immigration — coming in at the third most cited issue of concern. Political gridlock and abortion are also top of mind as well for this group.

People without strong party commitments, like Independents, are the ones who will shift election outcomes, he added.

Linzer offered this advice as a professional pollster: do not freak out at one poll. Behind the scenes, a lot of work goes into making sure surveys are accurate, but any survey is always simply a snapshot in time, explained:

At [Civiqs], we do our absolute best to produce surveys that we believe are accurate. We put a lot of work into it, and so do survey researchers at other firms and other news outlets. A lot of work goes into it. It is still a sample. It is still 500 or 1,000 people out of a population. It is very challenging to conduct surveys at all in the current environment, and it is very hard to predict who is going to vote. These election surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. They should be taken as a guide … it is just a fact of probability that the surveys that are conducted are close to that truth, we hope, if we’re doing a good job. But they are not truth. So if you see a survey, please look at it in the context of [other surveys]. I’m a big proponent of averaging surveys together to see where an election really stands, but even then, that doesn’t really solve all the problem. So if you’re addicted to polls and it’s giving you anxiety attacks, I’m giving you permission as a professional researcher [to tune out a bit] … it is subject to a lot of uncertainty. And even though, as survey researchers, we do our best … any poll that’s conducted in advance of an election is certainly not a forecast. It is our best measure of a point in time. Take a deep breath and look at the entirety of the survey work out there.

The trio also discussed the differences in polling likely voters, as opposed to registered voters.

Democrats have consistently outperformed their numbers in special elections by six points — six points better than Joe Biden’s numbers in 2020, Moulitsas highlighted. Shocking outcomes in districts like NY-19 indicate that things may not be as they seem, despite polling: “Real world results look far better than the polling, and then we have these questions: who is turning out to vote? All these new, young voters. But polls aren’t picking them up. It is really an atypical election, and I don’t envy pollsters trying to figure it all out.”

Eleveld thinks that now that we are in the home stretch, we’re going to start seeing Independents and undecided voters really start to pick their candidates and positions, with crucial margin votes up for grabs:

We’re not saying that Democrats are not in good shape … my feeling is that everything is closing. All the undecideds are going home to Democrats and Republicans, so everything is getting a little tighter. Democrats are very much in the hunt and ahead in most of those polls. If our ground game is getting us another two or three, three or four points, man. That could really make the difference.

Lastly, Moulitsas plugged Daily Kos’ GOTV campaigns, which support local organizations doing the work on the ground to get out the vote: dailykos.com/GOTV.

You can listen to the full episode here:

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/19/2129777/-This-week-on-The-Brief-What-polling-is-saying-about-the-forecast-for-November

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