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Something is Off...The Pundits, That Times Poll, And 2022 Turnout Numbers Can't All Be Right. [1]

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Date: 2022-10-19

Something is off. The early vote numbers (while super early) simply do not match the narrative coming from that wonky NY Times poll. There were such strange numbers in the small sample of that poll—high black GOP support, independent women swinging so hard to the right, so few new voters (which flies hard in the face of every special election this year)— and the liberal twitter narrative and mainstream pundits just decided to jump all over it and prep for doom. Every mainstream pundit and election analyst, with the notable exception of Rachel Bitecofer, seem practically rooting for a GOP wave. It’s so strange.

The irony of these analysts is that for them to keep their jobs in 2025, they have to prove to be awful at their jobs in 2022! May it be so.

That’s really all I wanted to say. Something is OFF, something is off in the likely voting model. I’m not hoping it is. We are seeing that it is. As an amateur data nerd, I can tell when numbers don’t add up, and these numbers aren’t adding up between “likely” voter screens and the real results of who is voting in 2022.

Please turn out as many “unlikely” voters as you can. That’s the only thing we can influence, friends! THE ONE AND ONLY THING

As I write letters over the next few weeks to voters in North Carolina, my prayer and meditation practice will be aimed at wishing that America decides NOT to give more power to those who do nothing but abuse us and make us live in fear. May we chart a new path into a new era of democracy together.

Good luck with your turnout efforts and Buddhaspeed! :)

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/19/2129893/-Something-is-Off

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