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Looming Timeout on Ukraine Resistance [1]

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Date: 2022-10-19

HAHAHAHAAH suckers

Point 1: Ukraine needs US backing. This goes without saying.

Point 2: Biden and the left back Ukraine.

The U.S. condemns Russia's missile strikes today across Ukraine which injured and killed civilians and demonstrated once again the brutality of Putin’s illegal war.These attacks only reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes.

--Biden on Twitter

Point 3: Republicans do not back Ukraine.

Point 4: Republicans are on the verge of winning the House

The GOP is tantalizingly close to its goal of taking the House majority in three weeks, after an at-times-uneven, two-year campaign to flip the chamber.

--Politico

The end result of that will be paralysis at the federal level. The US will make a much smaller contribution to Ukrainian defense.

Putin may get relief if he’s able to hold on until January when a Republican House would block any more military aid to Ukraine. That is what Kevin McCarthy is now signaling.

--If Putin Can Hang On Til January (Josh Marshall)

The only good news for Ukraine is that House Republicans won’t have the leverage to get the US to switch sides and back Russia. But if the Ukraine war isn’t concluded by the end of the 2026 election, the US will switch sides and back Russia.

Deadlines Deadlines

Ukraine faces two critical timing pressures from potential Republican victories in 2024 and 2026:

This winter, the United States will begin to draw down on active support for Ukraine. The Biden administration and likely the Senate will do what they can, but they will have limited to ability to spend money.

If Trump wins again, he will establish a de facto alliance with the Saudis and Russia. Ukraine has little hope if the United States enters the war on Russia’s side. If it does not have decisive momentum before January 2027, all is likely to be lost.

For Putin the deadline is losing power before he turns the war around. Can Putin hold on long enough for his reinforcements in the Republican Party to arrive?

[END]
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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/19/2129962/-Ukraine-Geopolitics-and-the-Coming-Elections

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