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Ukraine Invasion Day 238: 30% of power stations have been destroyed [1]
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Date: 2022-10-18
A third of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been disabled. More missile attacks on Kyiv, as the current report is that 2,400 Iranian drones have been purchased by Russia.
“Today, power losses are possible throughout Ukraine 🇺🇦 due to the morning attack by the Russian Federation. In Kyiv, Dnipro, and Zhytomyr rocket attacks were carried out on thermal power plants.” The energy system in Ukraine 🇺🇦 is continuing to hang by a thread.
Russian forces continued to target critical Ukrainian civilian infrastructure with air, missile, and drone strikes on October 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 19 missile strikes and 68 air strikes against over 10 areas, including Kyiv, Zhytomyr City, Kharkiv City, Dnipro City, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia City, Mykolaiv City, Odesa City, and other areas in Donetsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. [1] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces targeted unspecified areas with 43 kamikaze drones, 38 of which Ukrainian forces shot down. [2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian infrastructure and military command facilities. [3] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on October 18 that Russian strikes between October 10 and October 18 destroyed 30% of Ukrainian power stations in a likely attempt to demoralize Ukrainian civilians that is unlikely to succeed. [4]
New missile attacks against Kyiv this morning. This Russian cruise missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems. pic.twitter.com/75CPOfVCIt
EU countries are also discussing whether to contribute funding to the service to keep it working in Ukraine, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Politico.
Yermak said the drones were Shahed models, known for crashing into targets with explosive payloads. Ukraine estimates that Russia ordered 2,400 of the drones from Iran, a number that overwhelms Ukrainian air defense systems. As of 10 a.m. local time, Ukraine's Air Force claims to have shot down 11 drones. Klitschko said that 28 drones were detected in the Kyiv region on Monday morning.
Many Kyiv residents, including some of NPR's Ukrainian staff, recorded videos of Ukrainian air defense systems firing at drones over the city.
In his daily briefing, Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov insisted "all designated targets" had been hit and said Russian troops had thwarted attempts by Ukrainian forces to advance in both the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Both regions are parts of Ukraine that the Kremlin claimed to have annexed last month despite its forces not controlling either territory.
Back in Moscow, Russia's Defense Ministry acknowledged carrying out what it claimed were "long-range precision strikes" against "military objects and energy systems" in Ukraine.
Not good..."Nato countries are struggling to identify and secure enough air defence systems to meet Ukraine’s demands for more equipment, western officials told the FT, amid pleas from Kyiv for better protection from Russian air and missile attacks."
https://t.co/bxqVAD47jt
“Ultimately, this is the price of unanimity to hold together this coalition, and in the grander scheme of things the sanctions are really working,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow in the Brussels office of the research group the German Marshall Fund, citing Russia’s diminished access to military technology as evidence.
The net impact of these exemptions on the effectiveness of Europe’s penalties against Russia is hard to assess, but politically, they have allowed the 27 members of the bloc to pull together an otherwise vast sanctions regime with exceptional speed and unanimity.
The Belgians have shielded trade in Russian diamonds. The Greeks ship Russian oil unimpeded. France and several other nations still import Russian uranium for nuclear power generation.
But even now some goods and sectors remain conspicuously exempted. A look at just a few items reveals the intense back-room bargaining and arm-twisting by some nations and by private industry to protect sectors they deem too valuable to give up — as well as the compromises the European Union has made to maintain consensus.
Since February, the European Union has named 1,236 people and 155 companies for sanctions, freezing their assets and blocking their access to the bloc. It has banned the trade of products in nearly 1,000 categories and hundreds of subcategories. It has put in place a near-total embargo on Russian oil. About one-third of the bloc’s exports to Russia by value and two-thirds of imports have been banned.
BRUSSELS — Eight months into the war in Ukraine , and eight rounds of frantic negotiations later, Europe’s sanctions against Russia run hundreds of pages long and have in many places cut to the bone.
Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast to regain lost positions on October 18. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian troops recaptured Horobivka, a settlement in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast about 16km northeast of Kupyansk. [15] The Russian MoD also claimed that Russian troops conducted a limited spoiling attack around Kyslivka, around 20km southeast of Kupyansk. The Ukrainian General Staff and Russian sources notably stated that Russian forces shelled Kotlyarivka, just south of Kyslivka, indicating Ukrainian forces have advanced southeast of Kupyansk up to the Kotlyarivka area. [16]
Russian forces likely continued defensive operations west of the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 18. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attempts to cross the Zherebets River around Stelmakhivka and Andriivka, both about 14km west of Svatove. [17] A Russian milblogger also reported that Russian troops stopped Ukrainian forces from advancing directly on Svatove. [18] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast (10km south of Kreminna), which suggests that Russian troops continue to conduct limited ground attacks in western Luhansk Oblast to regain ground near the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. [19] Russian sources indicated that Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) troops are focusing on defensive operations and attempting to regain ground west of Lysychansk. [20]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x Good "after-action" evidence of just how badly the Russians were beaten at Lyman in NE Ukraine less than 2 wks ago! "'Their Losses Were Large': In Liberated Lyman, Ukrainian Soldiers Recall Russian Retreat" RFE
https://t.co/W2FnYck69P — Ed Franks (@edfranks) October 19, 2022
Starobilsk
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka on October 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad and Klishchiivka. [27] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted assaults on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut and Soledar to the northeast. [28] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on October 17 that Russian forces plan to capture Bakhmut by the end of October, though ISW assesses they are highly unlikely to do so. [29] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled ground attacks northeast of Avdiivka near Novokalynove and southwest of Avdiivka near Marinka and Pervomaiske. [30] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) People’s Militia claimed that DNR forces are using UAVs to consolidate control over Pervomaiske, and geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions in Pervomaiske as of October 18. [31]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian authorities are struggling to cope with their reduced logistics capacity through Crimea following the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge on October 8. Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin stated on October 18 that authorities will complete dismantling the damaged spans of the Crimean bridge by the end of December 2022, indicating that Russian forces will likely have reduced logistics capabilities through Crimea for months. [32] Ukrainian sources shared footage of a large traffic jam in front of the Kerch Strait Bridge and claimed that one car passes through the inspection point every 40 minutes. [33]
Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on October 18. Ukraine’s Operational Command South reported that Russian forces struck Berenezhuvate and Kutsurub hromadas in Mykolaiv Oblast, Dnipro City, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih. [34] Ukrainian and Russian sources also reported that Russian forces targeted Zaporizhzhia City and Odesa City with loitering munitions. [35] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces destroyed the Ukrainian Government Communications Center space communications station in Paliivka, Odesa Oblast, about 17km northwest of Odesa City, but ISW cannot confirm this claim or assess its possible impact. [36] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Russian forces fired artillery against Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the Zaporizhia direction and force concentrations near Orikhiv. [37]
Russian occupation authorities kidnapped Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) personnel on October 17, likely to strengthen physical control over the ZNPP’s operations. Ukrainian state nuclear agency Energoatom reported that Russian authorities kidnapped and relocated ZNPP Information Technology Service Head Oleh Kostyukov and Assistant General Director Oleh Oshka and that their current whereabouts and condition are unknown. [38] A member of the Russian occupation administration in Zaporizhia Oblast criticized the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) call to establish a demilitarized zone at the ZNPP and stated that ZNPP occupation authorities have ruled out the possibility of demilitarization. [39]
www.understandingwar.org/...
x 1/ The Russian Telegram blogger Vladlen Tartarsky has written a useful description of the terrain in occupied southern Ukraine, which helps to highlight the difficulties that both sides are facing in fighting over it. Translation follows. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/E0gPBxwt0z — ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) October 18, 2022
2/ "From Kherson and practically to Donetsk, the terrain is flat fields, sometimes riddled with gullies and small rivulets. The fields are divided by "zelenki", narrow flat plantations of deciduous trees and shrubs.
3/ In the middle of the fields are small villages with 2-3 streets, usually with a farm and a school. To the north of Donetsk, there are agglomerations and villages, sometimes moving from one to the other.
4/ To the south and north of the Siverskiyi Donets [river] is a small strip of forest, then again fields.
Despite the fact that probably 90% of military ranges are fields, it is combat operations in these conditions that present the greatest difficulty.
5/ Concentrations of equipment are easily detected by UAVs and if the artillerymen are well trained, even an attempt to reach the attack line will end badly.
6/ [Ukraine] has created a solid minefield along the line from the Dnipro [river] to Marinka, which also makes it very difficult to use armoured vehicles. [Ukraine] has created a solid minefield along the line from the Dnipro [river] to Marinka, which also makes it very difficult to use armoured vehicles.
7/ Attempts to occupy strongholds without armour support, in small groups that try to approach the enemy stealthily, ninja-party style, also often end miserably, mainly due to enemy artillery that cannot be suppressed.
8/ Attacking without suppressing artillery is a great sin, this has been known since World War I, but for some reason this commandment has been forgotten [by Russia].
9/ After all, it doesn't matter how many men are advancing on a stronghold, 10 or 100 – shells will cope with any number.
10/ In order to suppress enemy artillery you need more modern artillery radars or UAVs capable of hovering behind enemy lines (if they were kamikaze drones, there would be no problem at all), and high-precision munitions.
11/ The asymmetrical way of counterbattery warfare – destroying supply depots, logistics centres and bridges ... significantly reduces the enemy's artillery potential, but does not solve the problem completely. There is a need for comprehensive work here." /end
• • •
x Watch: this is how Russian state TV deals with those who dare to contradict the approved rhetoric: they're hammered and threatened by other participants to the point of reversing their position. Beware that the origins of the clip they discussed were intentionally misrepresented. pic.twitter.com/NVMl68wh50 — Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 18, 2022
x “And therein lies the opportunity for the West…that choice is not to blink, to not merely maintain the pressure against him on all fronts, but to increase it. Putin’s off ramp should not be some face-saving deal…that he will be perceive as weakness…”
https://t.co/ApASjSeAaj — John Sipher (@john_sipher) October 18, 2022
x This is fascinating: Just 22% of Germans see Russia as a major threat to their security vs 66% of Americans. The geography suggests these results should be reversed. On China, the divide is even bigger. pic.twitter.com/BK0L9i5Lkk — Noah Barkin 🇺🇦 (@noahbarkin) October 17, 2022
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