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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The GOP is all in on galvanizing white voters this election [1]

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Date: 2022-10-17

Rich Logis/TNR and no, it’s not the usual ‘just become a McCain/Romney Republican and we all win’:

I Voted for Trump and DeSantis—and Now Regret It. Here’s How Democrats Can Appeal to Voters Like Me. There are plenty of conservatives willing to join an alliance to put the GOP out of its misery and preserve democracy. Here’s a plain truth: The vast majority of the adults left in the room are Democrats, and there are millions of Republicans who know this. I recognize this because I was, once, such a Republican. The Democratic Party may not always get policies right, but it works to better the lives of all Americans and not just its own voters. Most Republicans, by contrast, now make mockeries of the oaths they swear to uphold. Deep down, if you’re a sensible Republican, you know you’ve been lied to, and exploited, by your party; voting Democrat will mean you elevated your nation, and your democracy, above your party affiliation. I don’t want to mercy-kill the Republican Party because I want one-party rule. I hate to be a party-pooper, but I think we are structurally suited to—or perhaps simply stuck with—a two-party system. But we need a healthier two-party system, and so the GOP, in its current, destructive form, has to go. But getting there will take a cooperative effort: There must now be an alliance between Americans who may disagree on policies or have ideological differences but who agree that in order to preserve a nation where we might hash out these important political debates with one another, we need to band together in defense of a stable government and a stable nation, where freedom might be expanded for all to enjoy. The GOP only wants to constrict freedoms, bring about one-party rule, and bring the whole nation under its traumatizing vision. That’s not very kind and caring of them, is it?

x Uhh...what? “It says to me that Franken is running a competent campaign and has a shot to defeat the seemingly invincible Chuck Grassley — previously perceived to be invincible,” says Ann Selzer https://t.co/ncdc589QRP — Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) October 16, 2022

There's something under the radar happening with all these close "should be a lock" R senate races, see also NC and OH. See Governor’s races in OK and SD.

In a close race candidates matter, but something is keeping them close despite economic concerns (which both parties' voters share).

The latest NYT/Siena polling, however, highlights concern about the economy and is not great for Democrats three weeks out.

Axios:

Focus groups: Pennsylvania swing voters aren't sold on a switch Trump-to-Biden swing voters in Pennsylvania in our latest Axios Engagious/Schlesinger focus groups favored Democrats or split-ticket midterm ballots, saying if Republicans retake power they'll push a nationwide abortion ban and focus on "revenge" investigations against President Biden and his party. Driving the news: These were the major takeaways from our two online focus groups conducted Oct. 11 — our last swing-voter panels before the Nov. 8 election. Why it matters: These voters' disappointment with Biden and the economy, and rising anxiety about crime, aren't persuading them to embrace the Republicans at the top of their state's ticket.

x Bear in mind that immigrants often adopt anti-Blackness as part of the “Americanizing” process and the quest to become white people in good standing. — Brent Staples (@BrentNYT) October 12, 2022

The thread that follows from that tweet gives examples.

Ilya Matveev/Twitter:

Evgeny Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov have recently criticized the army leadership going as far as to name and shame specific generals. Some suspect they represent the "party of war" within the Kremlin or even nascent hawkish opposition to Putin. I disagree; here's why ⬇️ This conflict invokes a pattern familiar to any scholar of Russian politics. Putin sets up two or more centers of power and allows petty feuds between them. By now, this is almost an instinctive move for him.

x So I remember the previous version of Trump’s “Ungrateful Jews” rant and must say the sequel is even worse than the original. pic.twitter.com/CjAy3tWCGr — Philip Klein (@philipaklein) October 16, 2022

Noah Smith/Substack:

Biden declares economic war on the Chinese semiconductor industry Now it's on. In a post back in August, I offered some thoughts on whether and how the U.S. could sanction China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. My conclusion was this: Because financial sanctions would have huge costs for the U.S. and its allies and a relatively muted long-term impact on China…I expect us to use a different, more targeted kind of sanctions [in a Taiwan conflict]: Export controls. So what does China import a lot of, that would be crucial in any war situation? Computer chips, fuel, and raw materials…[C]omputer chips are essential for everything military. And although China is trying hard to ramp up domestic production, it has a long way to go. So I have to say that I was fairly surprised to see Biden go ahead and just do this, without even threatening it in advance or waiting to use it as a bargaining chip. This week, the administration implemented sweeping export controls on China’s entire chip sector. There are three main changes: 1. A ban on the export to China of specialized chips used for AI, or equipment to make these chips 2. Restrictions on exports of high-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China 3. Making a new list of Chinese companies (the “Unverified List”) that can be quickly banned from buying various U.S. exports without a special license (moved to the “Entity List”).

A very good explainer.

Jennifer Rubin/WaPo:

Mike Lee seems to be getting nervous The air of desperation isn’t so surprising given recent polling. Last week, a Deseret News-Hinckley Institute of Politics poll had Lee leading by a slim margin of four points (41-37) over McMullin among likely voters, with a margin of error of almost 3.5 points. And on Thursday, a Hill Research poll conducted by the anti-Lee Put Utah First PAC showed McMullin with a four-point lead. The lead grew to six points when counting undecided voters who are leaning toward a candidate. The Hill Research poll is an outlier, so it’s tempting to discount it. Then again, why is Lee pleading for Romney to support him? The race could be a model for combating the MAGA cult’s control of the GOP. The Democratic Party decided not to endorse its own candidate, who would have no chance in the overwhelmingly red state; instead, a coalition of Democrats, independents and pro-democracy Republicans have backed McMullin.

x Many of my US Twits are baffled by my remarks about British politics



Ignore them



The impending disaster in America is much, much more important



We have politicians who are weak, selfish and

quite unqualified, but your psychopaths are actually a danger to the entire planet — John Cleese (@JohnCleese) October 15, 2022

International section:, look to this political science lab learning session there for lessons you can use here. Today’s lesson involves the UK. Until they deal with what Brexit has done, the UK can’t move forward.

x Brexit was a choice for less international trade and investment. Less trade/investment means a less efficient, less productive economy. Which in turn implies that the British must work harder to buy less than they did pre-Brexit. Maybe was worth it, but only if honestly presented — David Frum (@davidfrum) October 17, 2022

Speaking of goings on across the pond, this from a conservative publication gives you a feel for the Tory despair :

Fraser Nelson/Spectator:

Why Liz Truss failed

Patrick O’Flynn/Spectator:

The spectacular fall of Liz Truss The PM makes Theresa May look like a slick operator

Isabel Oakeshott/Spectator:

The plot to put Rishi Sunak in No. 10

Steerpike/Spectator:

Watch: first Tory MP calls for Truss to go

Sunak beat Truss in the semi-final ‘down to two’ Members of Parliament Tory vote. Then, party membership voted Truss over Sunak, rejecting the MP choice. Not like there’s any resentment left over or anything.

Ian Dunt is a liberal columnist, not a Tory. NI is national insurance, a UK wide tax similar to our social security.

x Treasury led review into energy help after April next year. "Objective is to design a new approach". — Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) October 17, 2022

x So income tax cut on basic rate gone. Energy price guarantee lasting only until Spring. Dividends cut gone. Only thing that remains really is NI. The whole Budget has basically been scrapped. — Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) October 17, 2022

x BIG SHIFT: Hunt only carrying out the energy support package until April next year. Review then. This was the big attack line from Truss to Starmer, I've promised a 2 year plan. Not any more — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) October 17, 2022

So now Tories say Liz Truss is failing because of her socialist energy support policies (she capped prices!! ZOMG!!)

You can’t make this up.

Reuters:

Factbox: How could British PM Truss be removed, and how would she be replaced?

She’s only been there since September 5th. Barely a month.

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