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Ukraine Invasion Day 233: Public reports of first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops [1]
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Date: 2022-10-13
"Their daily bill for conducting war crimes in Ukraine, and conducting their military operation in Ukraine, is roughly $1 billion; they are receiving around the same amount from their oil."
Continuing combat operations include Ukrainian advances in south and east despite the continuing aerial attacks by Russia on cities.
The Kremlin continues to struggle to message itself out of the reality of mobilization and military failures. The Kremlin continued its general pattern of temporarily appeasing the nationalist communities by conducting retaliatory missile strikes on Ukraine in an effort to deflect from persistent mobilization problems. Renewed milblogger critiques about mobilization again show how ephemeral the Kremlin’s successes are at deflecting attention from them. The nationalist community resumed its calls on the Kremlin to replace senior officials and commanders and declare war, which some had anticipated would be the Kremlin’s response to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosions, broken mobilization process, and loss of most of Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman.[10] The Kremlin remains trapped in a cycle of appeasing its pro-war constituencies but retaining Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision of a limited war in Ukraine that is incompatible with their demands and expectations. Russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13. Ukraine’s Western Air Command noted that Russian forces launched Kalibr cruise missiles at infrastructure in western Ukraine, four of which Ukrainian troops destroyed.[11] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops launched missile strikes on critical infrastructure and civilian objects in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts throughout the day on October 13.[12] Ukrainian military sources also reported that Russian troops continued drone attacks all over Ukraine, and that Ukrainian troops shot down four drones over Vinnytsia and Cherkassy on October 12.[13] Social media footage additionally shows explosions in Rivne, Ternopil, Lviv, Chernivitsi Oblasts following the activation of Ukrainian air defense systems.[14] Russian forces are likely continuing to use Iranian Shahed-136 drones to support massive strike campaigns against critical Ukrainian infrastructure due to their low efficacy in active combat situations. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson, Nataliya Humenyuk, claimed on October 13 that Russian forces are employing Shahed-136s primarily to strike buildings and infrastructure because the drones have limited efficacy against troop concentrations.[15] Humenyuk cited various sources who stated that Russia has received between 300 to several thousand Shahed-136s and is using them in areas as far away as 1,000km from the launch point, which is why Shahed-136 use has been densely concentrated around southern Ukraine.[16] Russian forces are also increasingly trying to launch the drones from the northern border area. Humenyuk’s statement, and the pattern of recent Shahed-136 strikes against infrastructure in Ukrainian rear areas, supports ISW’s previous assessment that Shahed-136s will not generate asymmetric effects for Russian forces because they are not being used to strike areas of critical military significance in a way that directly influences the frontline.[17] www.understandingwar.org/...
Key Takeaways Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command.
Russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13.
Increasingly degraded morale, discipline, and combat capabilities among Russian troops in combat zones in Ukraine may be leading to temporary suspensions in offensive operations in limited areas.
Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove.
Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks towards Kreminna.
Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of Russian supplies and personnel to southern Ukraine.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut.
Russian incompetence continues to take its toll on mobilized personnel before they ever reach the front lines, likely exacerbating already-low morale.
Russian officials are likely increasingly limiting freedom of movement in Russia to preserve additional mobilizable populations and prevent them from fleeing the country.
Russian occupation officials called for the evacuation of civilians from occupied Kherson Oblast. www.understandingwar.org/…
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday. The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers. Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia has been gradually gaining territory.
gradually gaining territory. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley was asked about the rate of Ukrainian casualties on Wednesday and said it was difficult to estimate but previous media reports of around 100 killed and up to 300 injured each day had been "in the ballpark of our assessments." He was not responding to the latest Ukrainian estimate.
Milley also said Russia had taken "huge" losses and Ukraine was fighting effectively. What Ukraine lacks, Arakhamia contended, is the weaponry and ammunition to match Russia in "one of the biggest fights of the 21st century." He said: "We have the people trained to attack, to counterattack, but we need weapons for this." "Our negotiating position is actually quite weak, so we don't want to sit at the table if we are in this position. We need to reverse it in some way," Arakhamia said, stressing the need for a counter-operation to regain lost territory. Driving the news: Arakhamia is leading a Ukrainian delegation in Washington this week to lobby the Biden administration and Congress to increase the pace of weapons shipments and to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism — a topic he said they plan to raise with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). President Biden spoke with Zelensky Wednesday and informed him of additional military and humanitarian assistance, the White House said. The $1 billion in weapons to be shipped to Ukraine include rockets and artillery ammunition.
In a roundtable Wednesday at the German Marshall Fund, Arakhamia and other members of the delegation noted that while Biden had signed a $40 billion package to aid Ukraine in May, it was only very gradually translating into actual weapons shipments.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's partners — particularly in Europe — are beginning to focus on replenishing their own stockpiles rather than arming Ukraine, Arakhamia said. He noted that the German government was still very reluctant to approve export licenses to arm Ukraine, perhaps due to "internal fear" of Russia. www.axios.com/...
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