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Ukraine Invasion Day 232: the UN condemns Russia’s annexations as air attacks continue [1]
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Date: 2022-10-12
The United Nations General Assembly passed today a resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian territories; meanwhile, NATO defense ministers met in Brussels today to discuss providing Ukraine with a distributed, layered air and missile defenses.
Kerch bridge attack ‘retaliation’ continues with Russian air attacks particularly with arbitrary attacks including Lyiv and Kyiv.
On Wednesday the Kremlin said eight people had been detained over the attack on the bridge. Russia’s security forces named a senior figure from Ukraine as being behind them, a claim dismissed in Kyiv as “nonsense”. Half of the drones and missiles fired into Ukraine’s cities on Monday and Tuesday were shot down but dozens hit their targets, killing 20 people and highlighting the weakness of the country’s air defence. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, conceded that the strikes had badly affected the country’s electricity network as he appealed to citizens and businesses to reduce their electricity consumption during peak hours to avoid blackouts. He called for people to reduce power consumption from 5pm to 10pm across Ukraine by 25% in order to stabilise the power system. He said: “We are grateful to all Ukrainians who deliberately reduced electricity consumption yesterday and the night before yesterday. “The total saving was 10%. We also thank the heads of regions, heads of communities, who took a responsible approach and cut power consumption in communities. “The minimum permissible indoor temperature this winter will be 16 degrees celsius, while the average temperature will be 18 degrees. This is a necessity and this is our contribution to the victory. After all, it depends on each of us how we will get through this winter.” Before a meeting of defence ministers in Brussels, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said other Nato members were looking to provide more ground-to-air defences to protect against Russia’s “indiscriminate” attacks across the country. “We will address how to ramp up support for Ukraine and the top priority will be more air defence for Ukraine,” he said. www.theguardian.com/...
x .@samskove thought he was at more risk reporting near the front lines than in his apartment in Kyiv. Until Putin decided to bomb Ukraine’s capital.
https://t.co/pzuqXAgbno — The New Republic (@newrepublic) October 12, 2022
Key Takeaways Russia is intensifying efforts to set information conditions to falsely portray Ukraine as a terrorist state to deflect recent calls to designate Russia as a terrorist state.
Russian forces may have imported Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated personnel to occupied areas in Ukraine to train Russian troops in the use of Shahed-136 drones.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward Svatove and Kreminna. Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in this area.
Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting ground attacks in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks around Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian forces are likely reinforcing the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
The Russian military continues to face problems equipping individual Russian soldiers with basic personal equipment.
Russian and occupation administration officials continue to employ coercive measures against residents in Russian-occupied territories. www.understandingwar.org/...
x The defiance of Ukraine’s railways and how they #KeepRunning
https://t.co/294uQVY80e — FT for Schools (@ft4s) October 12, 2022 Earlier Ukrainian attacks against Russian rail capacity, most notably the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System strikes that started in July, have cut Vladimir Putin’s forces in Ukraine into two separate supply zones that do not support each other. Russian forces in the east, based around Donetsk and Luhansk, can draw their supplies from directly over the Russian border. But the Ukrainians have essentially cut the rail lines from those areas to Russian forces in the south and west. So everything needed by the Russian soldiers trying to hold off Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kherson region must be shipped by rail over the Crimean Bridge and up through the Crimean peninsula. If the Ukrainians could sever that rail line completely, Russian stockpiles at the front would soon run down, food and medical equipment would likely grow scarce, and already tired Russian soldiers would eventually lose the ability to mount sustained operations. Russia’s dependence on this one supply line has been a constant source of worry for Putin and his generals. Its evident vulnerability is one reason they supposedly went to great lengths to defend the Crimean Bridge from attack. This is what made Saturday’s operation so crucial: The Ukrainians identified a logistical target of potentially decisive importance, secretly developed a plan to eliminate it, kept word from leaking out, and then executed the plan with considerable success. The operation came as a huge shock in Moscow. Unnamed Ukrainian officials have told media outlets that their country’s intelligence services had used a truck bomb on the bridge, but Kyiv still has not officially taken responsibility for the attack, much less disclosed its methods. The uncertainty allows Ukraine and its supporters to troll the Russians, circulating multiple theories about what happened, including the possibility that the bridge explosion was an act of sabotage by an anti-Putin political group in Russia. (Earlier today, Russian domestic-intelligence officials announced the arrest of eight people, including five Russian citizens, in connection with the incident.) The operation and subsequent propaganda efforts are bound to make Russians fear that the Ukrainians will attack the bridge again. On Monday, the Russians responded in a manner that was both homicidal and pointless. Starting early in the morning, they fired almost every type of missile in their arsenal—including their supposedly accurate Kalibr cruise missiles; repurposed, less accurate S-300 anti-aircraft missiles; and Iranian kamikaze drones—against civilian targets in major Ukrainian cities. For two days they used this motley collection of expensive weaponry to show Ukraine their anger and muscle and to mollify nationalist hard-liners incensed over Russia’s recent defeats. Yet Russian officials are inadvertently revealing their powerlessness over much of Ukrainian resistance. The total cost of this Russian operation will be enormous. One advanced missile can cost more than $10 million—and Russia has fired many of them. Moreover, because of sanctions that keep it from obtaining high-tech equipment such as advanced microchips, Russia will have great difficulty replenishing its shrinking supply. www.theatlantic.com/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast) Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations in northwestern and western Kherson Oblast on October 12. Several milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to push south of the current frontline in northwestern Kherson Oblast and attacking toward Mylove (30km northeast of Beryslav along the western bank of the Dnipro River).[19] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to advance past the Davydiv Brid pocket in western Kherson Oblast, with several milbloggers indicating that Ukrainians attacked toward Ishchenka and Kostromka (both within 10km south of Davyid Brid) from positions near Davydiv Brid.[20] ISW makes no effort to evaluate these claims or make forecasts regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Ukrainian troops liberated five settlements in northern Kherson Oblast and otherwise maintained operational silence regarding specific Ukrainian ground maneuvers in this area on October 12. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian troops successfully retook control of Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Trifonivka, and Chervone—all settlements in northern Kherson Oblast within 25km south of the Dnipropetrosk Oblast border that Ukrainian forces liberated around October 4.[21] Ukrainian military officials also noted that Ukrainian troops are continuing their interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast to support ongoing ground maneuvers.[22] Residents of Kherson Oblast posted imagery reportedly of the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes near Kherson City in the Chornobaivka and Komyshany areas, in the Nova Kakhovka-Beryslav area, and southwest of Kherson City in Nova Zburivka.[23] www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces are likely reinforcing the Zaporizhia Oblast front line as of October 12. Pro-Kremlin Russian news outlet RIA Novosti reported a Russian soldier’s claims that Russian forces have equipped defensive lines along the Orikhiv-Polohy front and are prepared to advance.[30] Russian forces are likely unable to conduct offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast; the RIA Novosti report is likely a response to the sustained milblogger concern over a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. Russian milbloggers continue expressing concern that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive in Zaporizhia Oblast but are divided about whether the attack is imminent or postponed.[31] The Russian military may have reinforced the Zaporizhia front with elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA). Russian sources posted footage of a Russian T-90M tank of an unspecified element of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) firing at a target in an unspecified area along the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.[32] Ukrainian and Western sources previously reported the 58th CAA is severely degraded, and Russian sources reported on September 9 that Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod delivered a batch of T-90M tanks to the Russian Ministry of Defense and directed factories to work around the clock to increase production.[33]
Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts on October 12.[34] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Mykolaiv City, and Ochakiv.[35] Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces used incendiary munitions to strike Nikopol and Marhanets on the northern bank of the Dnipro River.[36] The Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications reported that Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition depot in Tokmak, destroying six S-300 air-defense systems on October 11.[37]
Russian forces have likely increased their usage of logistics lines through southern Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts after the Kerch Bridge attack. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Adviser Petro Andryushchenko posted footage on October 12 of Russian military equipment, including transport trucks, fuel trucks, and engineering equipment, headed both east and west from Mariupol.[38] Andryushchenko also stated that Russian forces have established temporary military storage and housing facilities in Mariupol.[39] The Russian reaction may also indicate increased fear at the possibility of further degradation of Russian logistics lines through Crimea apart from fears about the Kerch Strait Bridge.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) released its findings on the cause of the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea on October 11. The FSB claimed that the Ukrainian government transported the explosives used in the attack from Ukraine through the port of Odesa. Russian milbloggers amplified the FSB report and highlighted this detail as part of their calls for the Russian government to either not renew or pull out of the current agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea.[40]
Russian and Ukrainian sources exchanged accusations of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on October 12; the shelling disconnected the ZNPP from external power lines for the second time in five days.[41] Ukrainian state nuclear agency Energoatom reported on October 12 that Ukrainian engineers restored the ZNPP to the Ukrainian power grid.[42] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled a 30-person Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group from advancing on the ZNPP from the Dnipro River.[43]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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