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Ukraine Invasion Day 231: Russia fired 30 cruise missiles yesterday [1]

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Date: 2022-10-11

Russian aerial bombardment continues even as Ukraine continues a steady advance in both the east and south. A series of explosions in the central Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv left at least five people dead and dozens wounded, according to a government official.

Faced with mounting losses in Ukraine, Moscow has explored the possibility of resuming negotiations with Kyiv. Doing so, however, may first require Western support. Vladimir Frolov writes for @CEIP_Politika : https://t.co/YlKBKugMtX

Meanwhile the deputy head of the Zaporizhzhia power plant has been kidnapped by Russian forces, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company Energoatom said. Valeriy Martynyuk was taken on Monday and is being detained in an unknown location, Energoatom said in a post on Telegram.

Putin has told the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency that he is “open to dialogue” on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant .

Moscow would not turn down a meeting between Putin and Biden at the G20 meeting next month, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said. Moscow was open to talks with the west on the Ukraine war but had yet to receive any “serious offers” to negotiate, Lavrov said in an interview on Russian state television.

Roughly 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been hit by Russia since Monday, officials said . As millions in Ukraine are facing blackouts due to the attacks, the government has urged civilians to cut their electricity use and not use domestic appliances such as ovens and washing machines.

Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday they exhumed the bodies of dozens of people, including civilians and a one-year-old baby, to determine the cause of death after the retreat of Russian troops from Lyman and Sviatohirsk, two recently liberated towns in the eastern Donetsk region.

Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is a “rational actor who has miscalculated significantly,” US president Joe Biden said in a clip of a CNN interview broadcast on Tuesday.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, described Russia’s attacks as “ a profound change in the nature of this war ”. During Russia’s strikes in recent days, cruise missiles and armed drones rained down on parks, playgrounds , power stations and other civilian targets.

The leaders of the G7 condemned Russia’s most recent missile attacks on cities across Ukraine “in the strongest possible terms” and vowed to stand “firmly” with Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.

Russia continued to attack key infrastructure in Ukraine with missile strikes on Tuesday. Amid warnings from the UN and some Nato countries that Moscow may be committing a war crime with its continuing deadly blitz on civilian targets, Russia’s defence ministry confirmed its troops continued to launch long-range airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructure.

“The war in Ukraine is about establishing principles for the twenty-first century.” Read @TimothyDSnyder on why the conflict is about more than a Ukrainian or Russian victory—it's about the possibility of a democratic future. https://t.co/t4AicSVwRP

Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces fired nearly 30 Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers and damaged critical infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[1] Ukrainian air defense reportedly destroyed 21 cruise missiles and 11 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).[2] Social media footage shows the aftermath of strikes throughout Ukraine.[3] Russian forces additionally continued to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defense destroyed eight Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast on the night of October 10 and 11.[5]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x A new era of air defence has begun in 🇺🇦. IRIS-Ts from 🇩🇪 are already here. 🇺🇸 NASAMS are coming. This is only the beginning. And we need more. No doubt that russia is a terrorist state.

There is a moral imperative to protect the sky over 🇺🇦 in order to save our people. pic.twitter.com/jvbXUwDjc8 — Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) October 11, 2022

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts on October 10. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhia City, Mykolaiv City, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro City, and unspecified locations in Odesa Oblast.[41] Ukrainian sources also stated that Russian forces fired on Kutsurub Hromada, Mykolaiv Oblast, from positions on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast.[42]

Russian sources reported explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, on October 11. A Russian milblogger reported that the explosion occurred at a rail junction between the Kherson-Kerch and Kharkiv-Sevastopol rail lines but did not identify a cause.[43] The source noted that the only logistics route through Crimea that supplies Russian forces in southern Ukraine runs through Dzhankoy.[44] Russian news outlet Baza reported that a Russian tank accidentally fired while undergoing repairs, striking a house in Dzhankoy and wounding a child.[45] The reporting and claims over this incident indicate Russian panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.

Russian occupation authorities intensified efforts to strengthen their physical control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in occupied Enerhodar, likely to set conditions to take control over ZNPP operations and integrate the ZNPP into the Russian power grid. Ukrainian nuclear agency Energoatom reported that Russian occupation authorities kidnapped and tortured the ZNPP’s Deputy General Director Valeriy Martynyuk on October 10 and continue to hold Martynyuk in an unknown location.[46] Energoatom stated that Russian occupation authorities are torturing Martynyuk to obtain personal information about ZNPP personnel to force them into working for Russian nuclear agency Rosatom instead.[47] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that occupation authorities are forcing ZNPP personnel to sign contracts with Rosatom and use Russian passports for official work.[48] Energoatom stated that Russian authorities have begun transporting beds, mattresses, heaters, and other household items to the ZNPP.[49] Energoatom stated that Russian authorities are either trying to establish a winter base at the ZNPP or intend to take Ukrainian ZNPP personnel hostage as they did during the occupation of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in February and March 2022.[50] Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Council Member Vladimir Rogov stated that the ZNPP has been reconnected to external power lines but that it is too early to talk about restarting the reactors.[51]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations east of the Oskil River in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on October 11. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces near Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast (20km northwest of Svatove) and Stel’makhivka in Luhansk Oblast (15km northwest of Svatove).[19] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Zherebets River southwest of Svatove in the direction of Raihorodka and Novovodiane, Luhansk Oblast, on October 11.[20] [21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are regrouping and restoring combat capabilities near Kupyansk to prepare for assaults near the Pershotravneve-Kyslivka line.[22] The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating personnel and equipment in the Lyman-Svatove direction to launch an offensive on Svatove and Kreminna with a strike group of up to 40,000 personnel.[23] ISW makes no effort to forecast Ukrainian operations or to evaluate the likelihood of Russian forecasts about them.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a local counterattack and recaptured territories west of Kreminna while continuing to establish defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area on October 11. Russian milbloggers claimed on October 11 that Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations east of Lyman and recaptured Terny, Torske, Novosadove, Makiivka, and Nevske, although ISW cannot independently verify any of these claims.[24] Russian sources posted videos on October 11 purporting to show Russian forces constructing trenches with BTM-3 entrenching machines along the Svatove-Kreminna line, with one source dubbing the effort a Russian-made “Maginot” line (referring to the massive belt of French fortifications built between the two world wars that the Germans simply drove around).[25] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also reported that Russian forces are continuing to mine territory in Luhansk Oblast to slow Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted routine indirect fire along the Oskil River-Kreminna line on October 11.[27]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhkmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Mykolaivka and Mayorsk.[36] A Russian source stated that Russian forces tried to advance in the areas of Ozeryanivka south of Bakhmut and Kamianka, southeast of Bakhmut on the N20 highway.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.[38] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces conducted ground assaults in the directions of Nevelske and Pervomaiske.[39] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian tactical company groups near Mykilske, Novomayorske, and Stepne in western Donetsk Oblast.[40]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Also, the rashists used 14 Iranian kamikaze drones to attack critical infrastructure in Odesa and Mykolayiv regions. 12 of these UAVs were destroyed by Ukrainian defenders.



–General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 06:00 on 12 October 2022



2/2 — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) October 12, 2022

#casualty figures reported by conflict parties, see this #thread: On the limitations offigures reported by conflict parties, see this

@MFA_Ukraine & #OSINT data of visually confirmed losses (using data from @oryxspioenkop compiled by ):number of tanks lost by #Russia:



#Ukraine #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #RussianInvasionOfUkraine #kyiv #kherson Here a comparison of the figures reported bydata of visually confirmed losses (using data fromcompiled by @Lee__Drake ):number of tanks lost by

@MFA_Ukraine / @DefenceU & #OSINT data of visually confirmed losses (using data from @oryxspioenkop compiled by ): number of artillery lost by #Russia:



#UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttaсk #RussianInvasionOfUkraine #Kyiv Here a comparison of the figures reported bydata of visually confirmed losses (using data fromcompiled by @Lee__Drake ): number of artillery lost by

#Russian side, according to @MFA_Ukraine (reported Russian total #fatalities and newly daily reported Russian fatalities):



#ukraine #lyman #kyiv #kreminna #kharkiv #kherson #zaporizhzhia #donetsk #luhansk #sievierodonetsk #bakhmut "Killed soldiers" on theside, according to(reported Russian totaland newly daily reported Russian fatalities):

• • •

x President Joe Biden said in an exclusive CNN interview Tuesday he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin is a "rational actor" who nonetheless badly misjudged his ability to invade Ukraine and suppress its people. — Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) October 12, 2022

x He seems nice — Simon Schama (@simon_schama) October 11, 2022

x I sent this tweet over seven years ago. I was surprised most people couldn’t see Trump is a Russian asset. To Putin, this New York grifter is another version of the Donetsk grifter Yanukovych.



Today it’s clearer that Elon Musk is under the influence of the Russian fascist state. https://t.co/gc24paRHAJ — Michael MacKay (@mhmck) October 12, 2022

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