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The great debates [1]
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Date: 2022-10-11
The great debates
TOP LINE
After many debates about debates, candidates in four Senate battleground races finally took the stage.
Arizona’s debate, which included incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, Republican Blake Masters and Libertarian Marc Victor, took place on Thursday. Friday saw a double feature starring Wisconsin’s Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, as well as Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Buddin North Carolina. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryandebated Monday night.
Your host watched all four so you didn’t have to over the long weekend. Here are some themes from the battleground debates:
Dems distance from Biden: Throughout Ryan’s campaign, he’s sought to distance himself from President Joe Biden, from saying he shouldn’t run in 2024 to running an ad touting his vote with former President Donald Trump on trade policy. He continued that line of messaging on the stage, saying, “I have opposed Joe Biden on numerous pieces of legislation that he wants to try to promote and push.” He also called Vice President Kamala Harris “absolutely wrong” for saying the U.S.-Mexico border is secure.
Budd accused Beasley of being a “rubber stamp” for Biden. She sought some space from the president, too: Responding to a question about inflation, Beasley said that the Biden administration could “work a whole lot harder.” And when asked if she would campaign with Biden if he came to North Carolina, she said that if he came for an “official visit, we’ll just have to see if we’re available. … We want him here in the state listening to folks.”
And in the Arizona debate, Kelly called the southern border a “mess.” “I’ve stood up to Democrats when they’re wrong on this issue, including the president,” Kelly said about immigration. “I’ve pushed back on this administration multiple times.”
TV ads aren’t just for the commercial breaks: Some candidates took time on the stage to defend their records against campaign ads on the air.
Responding to a question about bail reform, Barnes said the issue has been “sensationalized” and “mischaracterized.” “What has come to light is how people have unfortunately used the Waukesha tragedy, even going so far as to use it in commercials, retraumatizing families,” he continued. The NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund have put out ads against him, tying ending cash bail to the Waukesha Christmas parade attack last year. Barnes’ campaign has pushed back on the ads, saying the 2016 cash bail legislation he sponsored would have kept offenders like that in jail.
That NRSC spot also calls Barnes “different” while superimposing his image next to progressive members of Congress. “I actually embrace one of the characterizations in one of the ads they put out,” Barnes said at the debate about the ad. “I embrace that, because we don’t have enough working-class people in the United States Senate.”
Vance also took issue with ads Ryan’s campaign has been running regarding the opioid crisis and Vance’s nonprofit that sought to fight the issue. The organization reportedly hired a doctor with ties to Purdue Pharma, which manufactures OxyContin.
“If you're in Ohio, and you've seen these ridiculous commercials that Tim Ryan runs, telling dishonest truths, dishonest lies, about my nonprofit organization, it's paid by pharmaceutical blood money, because the very same corporations that caused this poison to come into our country in the first place have funded your campaign,” Vance said, referring to a report that drug companies donated to Ryan’s campaign.
Jan. 6 is still front and center: All of the debates brought up the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and the certification of Biden’s presidency.
Barnes brought the topic up himself, straying while answering a question about background checks on guns. “When we talk about respect for law enforcement, let’s talk about the 140 officers that [Johnson] left behind because of an insurrection he supported,” he said.
Johnson continued to deny any involvement in a scheme involving a top aide from his office to hand a fake slate of electors to former Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6. Even though he previously planned to object to certifying the election results, he emphasized that he voted to certify the 2020 election for Biden ― calling the accusation as a “non-issue.” Johnson then accused Barnes of inciting the riots in Kenosha in 2020.
Ryan pivoted to the Capitol riot while on defense about crime, accusing Vance of raising money for Jan. 6 rioters: “Can you imagine one guy saying that on one side of his mouth he's pro-cop, and on the other side of his mouth, he's raising money for the insurrectionists who are beating up the Capitol police?”
Regarding the 2020 presidential election results, both Masters and Vance said they believed the federal government forced social media sites to censor stories about Hunter Biden ahead of the election, which had an impact on the results. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said the company restricted sharing of an article on Hunter Biden after the FBI told his company it should be on high alert for propaganda ahead of the election, but also said it didn’t mention that story specifically.
“You cannot have a multinational corporation that's in bed with the Communist Chinese that’s censoring information about one of America's political parties and doing it in a way that interferes with people's knowledge and ultimately people's votes,” Vance said. “That's a threat to democracy. Big tech has way too much power and it benefits the Democrats.”
Meanwhile, Budd, who voted against certifying the 2020 election, said that Biden is the president, but he stands by the vote. “The core of that vote was to inspire more debate because I think debate is healthy for a democracy, so that’s what it led to,” he said
On the radar: Johnson and Barnes meet again on Oct. 13. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) will go up against Republican challenger Herschel Walker and libertarian candidate Chase Oliver for the first time on Oct. 14. Ryan and Vance hit the stage for a second time next Monday, Oct. 17. In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman will debate his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz on Oct. 25. And it doesn’t appear that a debate will be happening in Nevada’s Senate race between Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt.
Happy four weeks until Election Day,also known as Tuesday, Oct. 11. How’s it looking out there? Let me know at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.
Days until the general election: 28
Days until the 2022 World Cup: 40
Days until the 2024 election: 756
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CAMPAIGN INTEL
THANKS, OBAMA — Former President Barack Obama’s approach to the midterms will remain “limited and careful,” CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere writes. “Democratic operatives say they’re eager to see Obama play an active role – even now, they say, his best role is driving up crucial Black voter turnout in places like Philadelphia and Detroit – even as they note his appeal is shifting. Among the disinterested voter blocs are a rising generation too young to remember his 2008 win, those who argue that his failure to deliver on soaring promises helped set up the crisis of faith and political despair that has followed and those who have gotten tired of seeing how little he’s engaged.”
The Obama Foundation will be hosting the Democracy Forum on Nov. 17 in New York City, just a week after Election Day. The event will “highlight the young leaders in our programs and advocates who are deeply engaged in revitalizing the institutions that support a healthy democracy,” the foundation announced Monday.
ON THE BALLOT — Health care and labor issues are on the ballot in over 15 states this year. POLITICO’s Annette Choi breaks it down.
Annette Choi/POLITICO
ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) is rolling out a bipartisan series of midterm endorsements through his Country First leadership PAC. The Democrats include: secretary of state incumbents Steve Simon of Minnesota and Jocelyn Benson of Michigan, and secretary of state candidates Adrian Fontes in Arizona and Cisco Aguilar in Nevada. He also endorsed Josh Shapiro for governor of Pennsylvania and Katie Hobbs for governor of Arizona.
The Republicans include Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Larry Lazor in CT-01 and Thomas Knecht, a Republican state House candidate in Minnesota. He also endorsed independent Utah Senate candidate Evan McMullin and independent Clint Smith in AZ-05.
WEEKLY CATCH-UP — Last week, POLITICO hosted its first weekly briefing for POLITICO Pro subscribers in the run-up to the midterm elections. Your host was one of the panelists, along with Holly Otterbein, Jessica Piper and Steve Shepard. We chatted about the latest from the campaign trail from Georgia and Pennsylvania, and a deep dive on rural voters' relative strength this year. See the takeaways from our conversation here, and attend the future briefings every Friday at 10 a.m. ET through Election Day.
FIRST IN SCORE — MAILER WATCH — EDF Action Votes is launching an $82,000 mail campaign in support of incumbent Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood in IL-14, focusing on abortion rights, public safety and the environment.
… Speaking of mailers, we’re looking to bring more transparency to the elections process. How you can help: Send us photos of the campaign ads you’ve gotten in the mail. You can upload photos here or email them to [email protected].
THE CASH DASH
— Forbes’ Matt Durot has a rundown of the billionaires who have donated to the Congressional Leadership Fund and the House Majority PAC. Forty-two billionaires and their spouses gave $79 million to CLF, and 17 billionaires and their spouses donated $20 million to HMP.
— Senate Leadership Fund has jumped into the Colorado Senate race. The group made a $1.25 million contribution to the American Policy Fund super PAC, which supports Republican challenger Joe O’Dea. “We’ve been monitoring Colorado and we like what we see there,” SLF President Steven Law said in a statement. Democratic super PACs are outspending Republican groups $6.3 million to $4.4 million through Oct. 10, The Colorado Sun’s Jesse Paul and Sandra Fish note.
— National Democratic groups aren’t spending big in the Ohio Senate race. But national groups have propped up Republican J.D. Vance’s campaign by pouring in more than $30 million worth of advertising. “The lopsided funding has unnerved Democrats in Ohio and across the country,” NBC News’ Henry J. Gomez writes. “Many worry that Democrats will regret not doing more to try to pull Ryan ahead of Vance.” Ryan said, “The national Democrats … trying to talk them into a working-class candidate, it’s like pulling teeth sometimes. … We’re out here fighting on our own.”
AS SEEN ON TV
FIRST IN SCORE — EDF Action Votes is launching a $500,000 ad buy against Republican Tom Barrett in MI-07, who’s trying to unseat Rep. Elissa Slotkin. “Five chances to create 4,000 good-paying energy jobs for Mid-Michigan workers. Five times, Tom Barrett said no. That’s exactly why big polluters and job outsourcers back his campaign,” EDF Action Votes director of political programs Dustin Ingalls said in a statement. “And that’s why voters need to send Elissa Slotkin back to Congress.” Republican groups have been spending heavily in this race, with the NRCC putting in over $3 million on TV ads to date since the beginning of September, and the Congressional Leadership Fund spending over $2 million in that time.
AS (NOT) SEEN ON TV — Republicans in some of the most hotly contested gubernatorial battlegrounds are barely spending any money on television ads, if at all. And elsewhere, GOP candidates who are on the airwaves are nevertheless getting significantly outspent by Democratic opponents. Our Zach Montellaro reports: “Supportive super PACs or outfits backed by the Republican Governors Association are filling in the gaps, but GOP candidates are still facing a significant deficit in the final weeks before the election. … The spending disparity has been most acute in a handful of the most tightly divided states at the center of American politics: Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
— Gov. Gavin Newsom is launching his first TV ads of the election cycle in California, imploring Californians to back Proposition 1, a measure on the fall ballot that would enshrine the right to abortion and contraceptives in the state constitution.
— CLF is running a spot highlighting the FBI raid of Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) home. The FBI raided his home in January, just weeks before the primary.
— Democratic candidate for Ohio governor Nan Whaley ran this ad during Monday night’s Senate debate, calling out incumbent Republican Gov. Mike DeWine for not agreeing to a debate. “When you’re running for another term, you have a responsibility to answer to the public as to why you deserve four more years,” Whaley said in a statement.
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I’m really, deeply disappointed in the DCCC,” said Texas Democrats Chair Gilberto Hinojosa about the lack of financial support from national Democratic groups in TX-15. “I hope they change their mind, and if we lose this election, it’s completely on them.” (h/t The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek)
Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve
Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro
Ally Mutnick @allymutnick
Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616
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