(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .



Pandemic Observations -- October 7, US States & Canadian Provinces: [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.', 'Backgroundurl Avatar_Large', 'Nickname', 'Joined', 'Created_At', 'Story Count', 'N_Stories', 'Comment Count', 'N_Comments', 'Popular Tags']

Date: 2022-10-09

The Road Ahead?

The continuing drop in new US Covid infections is well into its 11th week, and has now reached a level not seen April, but our weekly death toll remains stubbornly stuck at far too high a level compared to most other nations at this point in the pandemic. Indeed, if Kansas hadn’t artificially inflated last week’s overall death toll with its ~500 revision upward, we would actually be looking at a modest increase in deaths this week rather than an illusory decline. In any event we’ve barely budged from where we were 4 weeks ago (so much for my prediction that we would be down around 2500 by now), and are still losing about 400 people every day to this relentless pathogen.

The state of most concern this week is North Carolina, which has seen its weekly death toll more than quadruple in the last two weeks, and now appears poised to overtake California for the top spot in the weekly Power Rankings — even while its infection rate of new cases has plunged by 40% over that same period to its lowest level since April. This seems to be an even more extreme example of the pattern we were seeing in Florida during much of the past summer and appears to make even less sense.

Astute observers may have noticed the increasing divergence between the weekly stats I’ve been compiling versus those reported by my main data source, www.worldometers.info/… (which would have us believe that barely 2000 died from Covid in the past week). The problem here is that as more nations and states move away from the traditional method of reporting new deaths by the date they are first noted to the ultimately more “accurate” method adopted early on by Sweden and Florida of backdating these deaths to the dates they actually occurred on, it renders the fatality stats for the most recent weeks essentially meaningless as they inevitably trend toward zero, regardless of how many new deaths are actually taking place. The only way to avoid this statistical artifact is to ignore the daily data revisions and calculate the new weekly deaths by subtracting the previous week’s cumulative total from the current cumulative total — which I can do with ease, but which worldometers fails to do due to its daily data revision algorithm.

Since I apparently didn’t learn the appropriate lessons from my last ill-fated Covid Cruise to Quarantine last spring (which I still need to write up at some point), I’m about to tempt fate once more with a 3-week Panama Canal cruise in a couple of days — so there will most likely be another hiatus in my weekly updates until I return. Stay as safe as practicable by continuing to mask up indoors where advisable and get the new bi-valent booster asap. Covid clearly isn’t quite done with us yet.

US States & Canadian Provinces: October 1-7 New Deaths 7-Day D/1M 7-Day Deaths weekly Change 14.Day cHANGE cHANGE FR mAX Canada USA NN AR MT NC OK ME WV KY VT MI TN SD NM MB AK VA AL MA GA WY PA NY OH MN LA NL FL WI OR PR NB IA IL KS BC ID CA CO IN HI CT MS AZ NV SC WA NE AB QC MD ON NJ TX RI NS NH UT DE MO ND SK DC US.Hos 4.2 8.6 44.4 36.8 32.8 22.4 19.9 19.3 19.0 18.1 14.4 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.4 12.5 12.3 10.7 10.4 9.4 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 159 2,852 8 111 35 235 79 26 34 81 9 143 94 12 28 17 9 91 51 65 93 5 110 157 94 44 36 4 150 40 29 23 5 20 79 18 31 11 242 35 40 8 20 16 36 15 25 36 9 20 34 24 57 34 110 4 3 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 2,753 -35% -12% -11% 9% 1650% 67% 316% 160% 0% 37% 900% -11% -12% 200% 87% 0% 0% -6% 89% 8% -15% 67% -4% 20% 6% 16% -37% 33% -46% -7% -29% -52% 0% -23% 7% 500% -16% 10% 17% 21% 5% 14% -9% -52% -18% -42% -26% -45% -74% -13% -48% -50% -17% -11% -12% 0% -70% -69% -30% -90% -100% 0% 0% -100% -7% -38% 2% 55% 94% 311% 239% 367% 13% 13% 2% 125% -12% 17% 7% -38% 36% 0% 3% -39% 14% -31% 14% -16% -12% -4% -21% 8% 40% -37% -17% 43% -7% 25% -45% -15% -56% -3% -49% -7% -2% -36% -38% -14% -16% -51% -29% 84% -34% 132% -10% -63% -31% -22% -17% -21% -11% -52% -23% -23% -48% -55% -100% -100% 800% -14% -86% -88% -89% -63% -72% -69% -87% -80% -84% -82% -59% -86% -91% -93% -88% -83% -90% -93% -95% -93% -90% -94% -93% -98% -94% -90% -92% -78% -94% -93% -86% -87% -81% -96% -94% -95% -75% -94% -94% -93% -94% -89% -97% -96% -97% -95% -96% -88% -96% -88% -95% -95% -86% -98% -95% -97% -89% -95% -95% -99% -100% -100% -100% -100% -89% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

D/1M = New Covid-19 deaths per 1 million population over prior 7 days

C/1M = New Covid-19 cases per 1 million population over prior 7 days

Weekly Change = Net change from previous week's stats

14-Day Change = Net Change from previous 14-day period

Change fr Max = Net change from week of peak deaths or new cases

Bold = States/Provs experiencing significant upward movement in cases and/or deaths

US.Hosp = Serious/Critical cases

NN = Navajo Nation (population estimate 180,000)

USA data derived from worldometer, Canadian data from Canada Covid-19 Interactive Data

US States & Canadian Provinces: October 1-7 New Cases 7-Day C/1M 7-Day Cases Weekly Change 14.Day Change Change fr Max Canada USA KY NY NJ MA ME PR ND MI RI WI NS NH NC DE WV MN CT MT OR VT PA SD NN IL HI AK OH VA SC TN OK IA NM NB MD CA WY QC CO AL AR ID ON KS WA IN MS UT NE AZ FL TX LA NV GA NL AB MB DC BC MO SK 490 879 2,090 1,591 1,588 1,442 1,391 1,365 1,311 1,288 1,285 1,222 1,163 1,159 1,141 1,120 1,062 1,058 1,049 1,028 1,005 971 971 952 922 903 899 871 855 840 817 801 799 794 774 771 766 766 755 717 717 714 675 635 631 583 563 542 542 540 531 505 502 498 443 417 411 406 238 224 207 139 0 0 18,478 290,815 9,337 30,944 14,106 9,942 1,870 4,623 999 12,880 1,361 7,114 1,125 1,576 11,971 1,091 1,903 5,968 3,741 1,099 4,237 606 12,431 842 166 11,447 1,273 637 9,997 7,174 4,207 5,472 3,160 2,505 1,623 596 4,633 30,256 437 6,064 4,130 3,502 2,037 1,134 9,143 1,698 4,285 3,652 1,614 1,731 1,028 3,675 10,779 14,436 2,059 1,283 4,360 212 1,039 305 146 699 0 0 -2% -17% -6% 2% -9% -4% 6% -46% 97% -12% 5% 7% 17% 8% -26% -24% -18% -2% -24% -14% -1% 0% -18% 15% -74% 5% 80% 15% -17% -15% -9% -16% -23% -11% 8% 7% -12% -10% -7% 10% -16% -15% -17% -11% 8% -36% -46% 37% -14% -8% -16% 8% -9% -22% -26% 147% -14% 30% 10% 7% -70% 10% -100% 0% 5% -21% 13% -8% -5% 5% 9% 31% -40% -22% 1% -18% 2% -3% -32% -12% -46% -7% -23% -13% 19% 10% -24% -26% 11% -36% -19% -26% -37% -28% -44% -22% -42% -43% -5% -1% -23% -5% -6% 16% -13% -41% -47% -34% 14% -37% -17% -43% -48% -18% -30% -30% -44% -48% -49% -45% -45% 49% -10% -18% -45% 10% -53% -100% -94% -96% -89% -94% -94% -93% -88% -93% -94% -91% -96% -95% -85% -93% -94% -95% -94% -94% -94% -93% -93% -95% -94% -94% -97% -95% -96% -97% -95% -94% -96% -95% -96% -95% -96% -89% -95% -96% -95% -94% -96% -97% -97% -94% -91% -97% -96% -96% -97% -98% -97% -97% -97% -97% -98% -97% -97% -95% -97% -98% -99% -97% -100% -100% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

Following are the Power Rankings for the top 25 States/Provinces driving the pandemic in the US & Canada in terms of total new cases and new deaths during the past week:

Top 25 States/Provs: October 1-7 New Deaths 7-Day Deaths 14.Day Inc %Tot <<>> New Cases 7-Day Cases 14.Day Inc %Tot CA NC NY FL MI AR PA TX TN OH GA VA KY OK IL MA ON AL MN WI IN LA AZ WA MT 242 235 157 150 143 111 110 110 94 94 93 91 81 79 79 65 57 51 44 40 40 36 36 36 35 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 8.0% 7.8% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 NY CA TX NJ MI PA NC IL FL OH MA KY ON VA WI QC MN TN MD PR GA WA OR SC CO 30,944 30,256 14,436 14,106 12,880 12,431 11,971 11,447 10,779 9,997 9,942 9,337 9,143 7,174 7,114 6,064 5,968 5,472 4,633 4,623 4,360 4,285 4,237 4,207 4,130 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 10.0% 9.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3%

14-Day Inc = Net increase of current 14-day numbers over prior cumulative totals

%Tot = Share of US & Canadian Totals

[END]
---
[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/9/2127698/-Pandemic-Observations-October-7-US-States-Canadian-Provinces

Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.

via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/