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Ukraine Invasion Day 226: Russia sustains losses and evacuates wounded from Kherson and Luhansk [1]

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Date: 2022-10-06

“This is a matter that has to do with international law,” he said at a news conference.

Speaking during a visit to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said on Wednesday that the I.A.E.A. still viewed the plant as a Ukrainian facility, since the U.N. charter does not recognize illegal annexations.

Recurring shelling near the plant has fanned fears about a catastrophic meltdown, and the Kremlin’s announcement that it would put the plant under control of the Russian state has introduced even more unease.

Last week, following sham referendums, Russia illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions, including the Zaporizhzhia region where the plant resides. On Wednesday, Russia said it would take over operational control of the facility, which Russian forces seized in March but is still run by Ukrainian engineers.

Russia's recent military setbacks in Ukraine highlight deep problems on the battlefield for Moscow and have opened rifts at the top of the government. @AP explains the latest Russian losses, some of the reasons behind them and the potential consequences. https://t.co/WJ1tlZiVnE

“I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden added. Really stark and significant remarks from POTUS tonight.

Per pool, Biden tonight at a fundraiser in New York: “First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going. We are trying to figure out, What is Putin’s off ramp? Where does he find a way out?”

President Volodymyr Zelensky said the West should have carried out "preemptive strikes, so that (Russians) know what will happen to them." Zelensky's spokesperson was forced to explain that the president was referring to sanctions, not nuclear weapons. https://t.co/LSaGiKNjAj

Russia, russia, russia ,” chanted Vladimir Putin on September 30th, as he announced the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson. But within hours his newly expanded country began shrinking. The Ukrainian army smashed through Russia’s left and right flanks, at the two extremes of a vast front stretching from the Black Sea in the south to the Donbas region in the east (see map). “Not since the initial part of Operation Barbarossa in the second world war has the Russian army had such a terrible series of reverses on the battlefield,” says Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general. www.economist.com/...

For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, top Russian leaders are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should Mr. Putin decide to use a

Saudi Arabia and Russia, acting as leaders of the OPEC Plus energy cartel, agreed to a large production cut in a bid to raise prices, countering efforts by the United States and Europe to constrain the oil revenue Moscow is using to pay for its war in Ukraine.

Dugina Assassination:U.S. intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina , the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist. American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

Seven rockets were fired into residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia before dawn on Thursday, killing at least one person, as Russia increased its attacks on Ukrainian-held cities amid losses by its troops on the battlefield. Terrorism https://t.co/SQtZqztxX3

The Kremlin said it agreed with an assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies that parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack that killed the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, calling the analysis a “positive” development. https://t.co/CM7c1PJGyh

The closely held assessment of Ukrainian complicity, which had not been reported before Wednesday, was shared within the U.S. government last week. Ukraine denied involvement in the killing immediately after the attack, and senior officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment.

The United States took no part in the attack , either by providing intelligence or other assistance, American officials said. The officials also said they were not aware of the operation ahead of time and would have opposed the killing had they been consulted. Afterward, American officials admonished Ukrainian officials over the assassination, they said.

Russia cannot loot the Zap orizhizhia Power Plant like some washing machine, with a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia’s residential buildings among its many offenses. Now it appears that Ukraine was involved in the killing of Alexandr Dugin’s daughter. Still peripheral but troubling are the threats of tactical nuclear weapons.

Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)

Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk on October 6. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled “up to three [Ukrainian] battalion tactical groups [sic]” as they attempted to advance towards Pershotravneve (20km northeast of Kupyansk), Kyslivka (23km southeast of Kupyansk), and Berestove (30km northeast of Kupyansk). [5] Geolocated footage also shows Ukrainian troops in Hlushkivka, 14km southeast of Kupyansk, indicating that Ukrainian troops are continuing to make eastward gains around Kupyansk. [6] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to extend the counteroffensive pocket around Kupyansk northeast towards Vilshana and east towards Orlianka (22km east of Kupyansk) and that Ukrainian troops are sending reinforcements to this pocket. [7] The deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, reported that Russian troops are attempting to slow Ukrainian advances on the Kupyansk-Svatove direction, suggesting that Russian troops around Kupyansk are concerned that Ukrainians will use positions in this area to threaten Svatove from the northwest. [8]

www.understandingwar.org/...

Ukrainian troops likely continued counteroffensive operations to threaten Russian positions along the Kreminna-Svatove road in western Luhansk Oblast on October 6. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that over 10,000 Ukrainian troops have amassed west of Kreminna, and that Russian forces have largely lost contact with Svatove and Kreminna. [9] Several Russian sources stated that Ukrainian troops are continuing sabotage and reconnaissance activities along the R66 (Svatove-Kreminna road) and that Russian troops are preparing for the defense of the Svatove-Kreminna line. [10] Local citizens and Russian troops have reportedly evacuated Svatove in anticipation of Ukrainian attacks. [11]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x #Zaporizhzhia . Missile attack. The death of two residents of the house has already been confirmed. At least five people are under the rubble of houses. There will be more victims.#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/ltGgMJMQcU — Visit Ukraine (@VisitUkraine__) October 6, 2022

x Russians say they no longer control #Snihurivka, at north from #Kherson. pic.twitter.com/Iln8zakplr — Gregor Martin (@Guderian_Xaba) October 5, 2022

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian troops are likely establishing defensive positions in upper Kherson Oblast following the collapse of the Russian line in northeast Kherson. Satellite imagery dated October 3 and 4 shows Russian trench lines and radar deflector systems in the Beryslav-Nova Kakovkha area, which suggests that Russian troops are falling back to reinforce defensive positions in central Kherson Oblast in the face of recent Ukrainian advances in northeast Kherson Oblast. [12] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces largely focused on regrouping in northern Kherson Oblast and did not conduct ground attacks on October 6. [13] The Russian MoD echoed claims made by some milbloggers that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks to break through new Russian defensive lines in northern Kherson, particularly from Piatykhatky (about 35km south of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border). [14]

Russian sources also suggested that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Kherson City on October 6. A Russian milblogger stated that Ukrainian forces are conducting troop rotations northwest and west of Kherson City near Posad Pokrovske and Oleksandrivka in preparation for further attacks in the direction of Kherson City. [15] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked Russian positions near Novohryhorivka, about 25km northwest of Kherson City. [16] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that a reinforced Russian tactical unit of an unspecified echelon attempted to attack in the direction of Lyubomirivka (27km northwest of Kherson City), likely in an attempt to push the frontline further north of Kherson City to afford Russian troops a wider buffer zone between Ukrainian positions and critical concentration areas near the Dnipro River on October 5. [17]

Ukrainian forces additionally continued their interdiction campaign in support of ground operations on October 6. Social media footage shows the aftermath of a HIMARS strike on a building used by Russian forces in Kherson City on the night of October 5 to 6. [18] Residents of Oleshky (5km southwest of Kherson City) reported smoke following Ukrainian strikes in the area. [19] Ukrainian forces also reportedly conducted strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge. [20]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Ukraine could retake Crimea if it continues to recapture territory from fleeing Russian forces at its current rate, senior US military officials believe.@RolandOliphant, @VerityBowman and Con Coughlan report ⤵️ — Telegraph World News (@TelegraphWorld) October 5, 2022

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian troops continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 6 and likely made incremental gains around Bakhmut. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces took full control of Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), but some milbloggers said that claims of the capture of Zaitseve are premature and that Wagner Group forces are continuing attempts to take full control of Zaitseve. [21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner Group fighters took control of Vesela Dolyna (5km southeast of Bakhmut) and are advancing northwest towards Ivanhrad. [22] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops continued ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Yakovlivka, Soledar and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Odradivka, Mayorsk, and Zaitseve. [23] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Russian forces fought along the western outskirts of the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area and conducted ground assaults near Krasnohorivka and Vodyane and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda and Novomykhailivka. [24] Russian troops continued routine shelling around Bakhmut and the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area. [25]

www.understandingwar.org/...

x Wagner Group lures foreign mercenaries with bumped-up salaries as Russia suffers losses https://t.co/HXGPKXJnFe — Rich Wood (@RichardHWood) October 6, 2022

A senior Kremlin-installed official in Ukraine’s partially occupied Kherson region lashed out at Russian military officials Thursday, a rare example of full-throated criticism from an official as Moscow faces mounting military losses to Kyiv. “Many are saying that the Defense Minister — who allowed things to come to this — should simply shoot himself like a [real] officer,” Kirill Stremousov, the acting governor of Kherson’s Russia-installed administration, said in a four-minute video posted on his Telegram channel Thursday. Stremousov noted that his harsh criticism was not directed at the entirety of Russia’s Defense Ministry but rather at a handful of “unskillful commanders.” Ukrainian forces appeared to have been making sweeping advances in the southern region of Kherson in recent days, recapturing a number of strategically important towns. www.themoscowtimes.com/...

x Look, @elonmusk, like we said before we are grateful to you for the Starlinks. We naturally disagree with your peace plan and make no secret of it — but we do invite you to give us an interview and explain why your stance is like that. We are keen to know. DM? — KyivPost (@KyivPost) October 6, 2022

x Assuming you believe that the will of the people matters, we should, in any given conflict region, support the will of those who live there.



Most of Ukraine unequivocally wants to be part of Ukraine, but some eastern portions have Russian majorities and prefer Russia. — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 6, 2022

x below is the electoral map of 2019. green is zelensky’s party.



dude, stop trying to do geopolitics. https://t.co/XhQyBlijzP pic.twitter.com/gJeJeR7Jd8 — ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) October 6, 2022

x ‘We’re minor losses’: Russia’s mobilisation targets ethnic minorities

Indigenous men from Dagestan to Yakutia disproportionately conscripted as activists accuse Kremlin of ‘genocide’#PutinsWar #PutinsGenocide https://t.co/HDpzdsFgMm — trevorw1953 (@trevorw1953) October 6, 2022

x Despite mounting losses on the battlefield, Russia contends it will recapture Ukrainian territory it previously occupied: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/FC7R9xaUmm — BN Commodities (@BNCommodities) October 6, 2022

x Ministers from oil exporting countries decision to cut oil production is likely to put a strain on relations between the US and Saudi Arabia.



Wednesday's move seen as a win for Russia, particularly as it has faced battlefield losses in Ukrainehttps://t.co/M5l44HYqAu — Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) October 6, 2022

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